UEFA Champions League Value Bets - 11/03/25
- JN Value Betting
- Mar 10
- 5 min read
BEST BETS:
BARCELONA VS BENFICA:
EVANGELOS PAVLIDIS - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 16/5 (BETWAY) - 0.5PTS
ANDREAS SCHJELDERUP - TO COMMIT 1+ FOUL - 8/11 (BET365) - 1.5PTS
LIVERPOOL VS PSG:
MOHAMED SALAH - TO SCORE OR ASSIST - 5/6 (PADDY POWER) - 1PT
MOHAMED SALAH - TO SCORE AND ASSIST - 10/1 (UNIBET) - 0.5PTS
DARWIN NUNEZ - TO HAVE 2+ SHOTS - 7/10 (BETWAY) - 1.5PTS
DARWIN NUNEZ - TO HAVE 3+ SHOTS - 21/10 (BETWAY) - 0.5PTS
DARWIN NUNEZ - TO HAVE 4+ SHOTS - 5/1 (BETWAY) - 0.25PTS
OUTRIGHT:
INTER MILAN - TO WIN THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - 11/1 (BETWAY) - 0.25PTS E/W (2 PLACES)
A perfectly executed 'smash and grab' performance in Paris last week was capped off five minutes from time when Harvey Elliott scored with his first touch, and fired Liverpool into a 1-0 aggregate lead to take back to Anfield. The same can be said for Barcelona who played with ten men for nearly 70 minutes away at Benfica, and managed to prevent them from scoring. Those results have left the two ties hanging in the balance. However, the same cannot be said for the two other ties that took place on Wednesday where Bayern Munich put Bundesliga rivals Bayer Leverkusen to the sword with a comprehensive 3-0 win, meanwhile Inter Milan demonstrated their rock solid defence away in Holland as they beat Feyenoord 2-0, they have conceded just one goal in the Champions League this season, and given that record, that tie looks beyond all doubt.
BARCELONA VS BENFICA
Despite playing for over an hour with ten men following the dismissal of Pau Cubarsi, Barcelona managed to record a 1-0 victory away at a free-scoring Benfica, and they come into this one having had an unexpected rest due to the postponement of their La Liga tie with Osasuna at the weekend following the tragic passing of Club Doctor Carles Miñarro. I am sure the players will be keen to make a statement in his honour in this one, and progress to the Quarter-Finals. Benfica were left to rue their missed chances in the first leg at the Estadio da Luz, and you feel that they'll need an extraordinary performance if they are to progress from this one.
Whilst I am confident that Barcelona will have enough fire power to see them through this tie, I expect Benfica to at least get on the scoresheet, and an open game looks a certainty given the style of play that both of these sides deploy. That leads me once again to backing Evangelos Pavlidis to get on the scoresheet. The Greek striker was rested at the weekend, but still managed a goal from the penalty spot, off the bench in Benfica's 3-0 win over Nacional. That goal has taken his tally to 13 goals in his last 12 games, with him scoring in 9 of those appearances - the three matches that he failed to get on the scoresheet were last week's first leg, and two substitute appearances where he played a combined 40 minutes. Pavlidis managed a hat-trick in the League Phase meeting between the sides, and that sparked this goalscoring run. The 16/5 on offer seems a large price, and I am happy to have a small punt on this.
Given the two previous meetings between the sides, I have been able to draw parallels between the matches in order to find an angle here, and that has pointed me in the direction of Benfica's Andreas Schjelderup. The Norwegian youngster has committed a foul in nine of his ten starts for Benfica this season, and is averaging 1.31 fouls committed per 90. This selection has landed both the fixtures between the two sides this season, and we have seen a left-sided midfielder commit at least one foul in twelve of Barcelona's last fifteen matches.
LIVERPOOL VS PSG
The gap at the top of the Premier League is growing by the week, and Liverpool extended their lead at the top of the table to fifteen points this weekend with a victory over bottom side Southampton. They were made to work for it, going into the break trailing by a goal to nil, before quickly making amends at the start of the second half. Arne Slot will be hoping for a rise in performance levels from Saturday, and more importantly the first leg, as they certainly rode their luck at times. PSG will certainly take heart from their performance at the Parc des Princes last week, but they'll more than likely need to score at least three goals to progress, and against a pragmatic Liverpool side it seems unlikely.
I'm going to stick with the same selection as the first leg, with 5/6 available on Mo Salah to score or assist. This selection has landed in 32 of Salah's 41 appearances this season, with him scoring 32 goals and assisting 22 in the process. I'll also have a small play on him to score and assist at 10/1. This has happened in 13 matches this season, and 10/1 is a massive price. PSG will have to chase the tie at some stage, and this makes the chances of Liverpool scoring via a counter attack higher, and with Salah's speed, he should get plenty of chances in behind the PSG defence.
Darwin Nunez started in the win over Southampton on Saturday, and got himself on the scoresheet, before winning a penalty as well. That should be enough for him to start over an out of sorts Diogo Jota, who is eight matches without a goal. Whilst the 7/10 available for Nunez to register 2+ shots is a short price, it certainly represents value for the Uruguayan. Nunez is averaging 3.83 shots per 90 this season, and has had at least two shots in thirteen of his seventeen starts this campaign. He has also had at least three in eleven of those starts, and with 21/10 on offer for him to have 3+, I am happy to get stuck in on that as well.
OUTRIGHT SELECTION
Inter Milan take a commanding 2-0 lead back to the San Siro on Tuesday evening, following their away win at Feyenoord last week. That was the eighth clean sheet of the Champions League campaign for Inter, conceding their only goal in a 1-0 defeat away at Bayer Leverkusen. Should the Nerrazzuri keep up that defensive record, it is hard to see them not progressing into the latter stages of the competition. They have found themselves on the favourable side of the draw, meeting the winner of Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen in the Quarter-Finals, should they progress. More importantly, they've avoided the side of the draw containing; Liverpool, PSG, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Arsenal. I was surprised to see the 11/1 available on them to win the competition, and am happy to have a small each-way play on them. This would secure us a return should they at least make the final, something which they did just two seasons ago.
Should Inter get past Feyenoord, their path to the final would contain potential matches against Bayern Munich and Barcelona. Both teams have displayed defensive vulnerabilities, and should they manage to keep them at bay with their impressive defensive record, they have every chance of progressing over two legs.
