FIFA Club World Cup 2025 - Outright Preview
- JN Value Betting
- Jun 13
- 6 min read
BEST BETS:
ATLETICO MADRID - TO REACH THE QUARTER-FINALS - 5/4 (UNIBET) - 2PTS
HARRY KANE - TOURNAMENT TOP GOALSCORER - 7/1 (BET365) - 1PT
SERHOU GUIRASSY - TOURNAMENT TOP GOALSCORER - 12/1 (PRICED UP) - 0.5PTS E/W (4 PLACES)
JOSHUA KIMMICH - MOST TOURNAMENT ASSISTS - 33/1 (BET365) - 0.25PTS
JULIAN BRANDT - MOST TOURNAMENT ASSISTS - 33/1 (BET365) - 0.25PTS
JUDE BELLINGHAM - MOST TOURNAMENT ASSISTS - 40/1 (UNIBET) - 0.25PTS
PASCAL GROSS - MOST TOURNAMENT ASSISTS - 66/1 (BET365) - 0.25PTS
Whilst there is certainly plenty of scepticism surrounding the Club World Cup and it's new format, we're stuck with it for this summer, so I am happy to digest as much of it as possible whilst we await the new season. The winner of each continent's premier club competition since 2021 are joined by the highest ranked teams outside of them - with restrictions on the number of teams competing from each nation. FIFA will be hoping that the action this summer can help people buy into the tournament for future editions, however, I feel their main concern should be the risk of European domination in this tournament. Major tournaments very rarely play out completely as expected, but should we get anything like the form anticipated by the European sides, they could easily fill a high percentage of the Quarter-Final slots. This would turn the tournament into a glorified version of the Champions League, and undoubtedly make participation from the other confederations not as keen heading into future iterations.
The anticipated European dominance is certainly reflected in the outright odds for the tournament, with nine of the twelve participating clubs being priced shorter to win the tournament than any club from another continent. Only the Portuguese challenge of Benfica and Porto, along with Salzburg are priced at longer odds than Flamengo and Palmeiras from CONMEBOL. Having completed a simulation of a tournament predictor, it saw the European sides come out on top, with heavyweights Real Madrid, PSG and Manchester City all enjoying runs to the Semi-Finals. Unsurprisingly, they are priced relatively short in the outright markets given the strength of their squads, which has led me to look elsewhere for value.
One side that I gave a chance of outperforming their odds was Atletico Madrid, Diego Simeone's side were denied by Madrid rivals in the Champions League Last 16 on penalties last season - albeit in controversial circumstances. Atletico are in the same group as European Champions PSG, which could lead to them having to settle for the runners-up spot. However, given the side of the draw they find themselves on, they will face the winner or runner-up in Group A, with a tie against Porto or Palmeiras likely in the Last 16. They should have enough to progress through that and reach the Quarter-Finals, and I am happy to take the 5/4 on offer for them to do so. There is an argument to hold off on backing them in this market until after their first game with it being against PSG, and a negative result would see their odds undoubtedly lengthen. However, there is the risk that the Parisians are still in celebration mode following their Champions League triumph, and any positive result for the Spaniards will see their odds shorten.
ATLETICO MADRID - TO REACH THE QUARTER-FINALS - 5/4 (UNIBET) - 2PTS
The participants from CONCACAF and CONMEBOL find themselves mid-season, which should give them a physical advantage on the sides from the other confederations. However, there are plenty of 'minnows' which should see the European 'might' beat comfortably. This had led me to find an angle in the Top Goalscorer and Most Assists markets, given the likelihood of some heavily one-sided games taking place.
The side with the longest odds in the outright market is the Oceanic Champions Auckland City, they are currently on a run of four consecutive OFC Champions League crowns, but come into this tournament as the rank outsiders given the strength of their confederation. This will be welcome news for Bayern Munich who have been drawn in the same group as the New Zealanders, alongside Benfica and Boca Juniors. This drew me to trying to get Harry Kane onside in some way. I was surprised to see him priced at 7/1 in the Top Goalscorer market, especially with the possibility of him racking up a number of goals against Auckland. They are likely to only meet European opposition in one of their opening four matches, with that being Benfica in the Group Stages. This should see Kane get himself amongst the goals early on, and set a target for many to catch. Whilst there is the chance that Vincent Kompany rotates his squad for the opening match against Auckland, I am happy to take the price on offer for Kane, with him proving he can score no matter the opposition.
HARRY KANE - TOURNAMENT TOP GOALSCORER - 7/1 (BET365) - 1PT
Another player I was keen to get onside in the top goalscorer market was Borussia Dortmund frontman Serhou Guirassy. The Guinean striker scored 34 goals last season, with 13 of these coming in the Champions League - including a hat-trick against Barcelona in the Quarter-Finals. He should relish the opportunity that this tournament provides him, given his side should progress through their group at a canter. BVB have been drawn alongside Fluminense, Mamelodi Sundowns and Ulsan HD, providing a chance for Guirassy to rack up a number of goals prior to the knockout stages. Should Dortmund top their group as expected, they are likely to face one of River Plate, Monterrey or Urawa Red Diamonds in the Last 16, which should see them secure their passage in the Quarter-Finals. This should provide the German side with ample opportunity to score some goals, and I can see Guirassy benefitting.
SERHOU GUIRASSY - TOURNAMENT TOP GOALSCORER - 12/1 (PRICED UP) - 0.5PTS E/W (4 PLACES)
Given the likelihood of the European sides progressing deep into the competition, most of their likely goalscorers are priced accordingly in the goalscorer markets. Therefore, I have looked towards the Most Assists market for some added value. Sadly, there are no each-way terms on offer, so any players must find themselves at the top of the charts to get any profit from them, so I have kept my stakes limited.
In line with the assumption that Bayern Munich, and Harry Kane will be amongst the goals early on in the tournament, I have looked to identify some value in the Bayern ranks in this market. Michael Olise is the most obvious option, with 21 assists to his name last season, however, he is the shortest price in the market. I believe there should be as much of a disparity in the prices between Olise and Joshua Kimmich. The German international assisted 12 goals last campaign, with five of these coming in the Champions League. That put him in third in the assist standings for the Champions League, only sat behind Ousmane Dembele and Raphinha. Given that Dembele will miss a large portion of the tournament, and Raphinha isn't participating, this makes the 33/1 on offer look huge.
JOSHUA KIMMICH - MOST TOURNAMENT ASSISTS - 33/1 (BET365) - 0.25PTS
Along the same lines as Joshua Kimmich, I have turned to Borussia Dortmund with their number of assists likely to be higher than most given the strength of their opposition. Much like his compatriot Kimmich, Julian Brandt racked up five assists in last season's Champions League, grabbing fifteen in all competitions. I was surprised to see 40/1 available on him with Dortmund and Guirassy facing inferior opposition in the Group Stages. Brandt was averaging an assist every 227 minutes last campaign, and with the strength of opposition Niko Kovac's side are likely to face prior to the Quarter-Finals, I can see Brandt getting a few assists to his name.
JULIAN BRANDT - MOST TOURNAMENT ASSISTS - 33/1 (BET365) - 0.25PTS
Another dart that I have taken in this market is a former Borussia Dortmund man in Jude Bellingham. Despite them coming into this off the back of an underwhelming campaign, I make Real Madrid the most likely winners. The addition of Trent Alexander-Arnold will strengthen what is already an embarrassment of riches for the Spaniards. They should rack up a number of goals on their way to winning a group containing Al Hilal, Salzburg and Mexican side Pachuca. Real beat Pachuca in December when lifting the FIFA Intercontinental Cup - the tournament that has replaced the old format of the Club World Cup. They also faced Salzburg in the Champions League last season, running out 5-1 winners. Should they replicate anywhere near that form, they should enjoy a fair share of goals, and I was amazed to see 40/1 available for Bellingham to grab the most tournament assists. bet365 have Bellingham priced at 16/1, which seems a fair assessment given the prices on offer for other Madrid players, so I am happy to take a punt at 40/1. Bellingham had 14 assists to his name last season, only behind Vinicius Junior in the standings for the most assists for Madrid last season.
JUDE BELLINGHAM - MOST TOURNAMENT ASSISTS - 40/1 (UNIBET) - 0.25PTS
The final stab I am going to have in the Most Assists market is another Borussia Dortmund player in Pascal Gross. Much like his teammate Julian Brandt, Gross assisted 15 goals for the Black and Yellow last season, and is a massive 66/1 to grab the most assists here. As already outlined, I anticipate Dortmund racking up a large number of goals, and having a player who assist the most goals for them last season onside at 66/1 seems a no-brainer.
PASCAL GROSS - MOST TOURNAMENT ASSISTS - 66/1 (BET365) - 0.25PTS
