UEFA Champions League Final - Preview, Best Bets & H2H Record
- JN Value Betting
- May 30
- 3 min read
BEST BETS:
DENZEL DUMFRIES - TO SCORE OR ASSIST - 17/5 (WILLIAM HILL) - 1PT
DENZEL DUMFRIES - TO BE CARDED - 7/2 (PADDY POWER) - 1PT
DENZEL DUMFRIES - TO SCORE & ASSIST - 75/1 (WILLIAM HILL) - 0.25PTS
GIANLUIGI DONNARUMMA - TO BE FOULED 1+ TIME - 7/2 (SKY BET) - 1PT
YANN SOMMER - TO BE FOULED 1+ TIME - 5/1 (SKY BET) - 1PT
GIANLUIGI DONNARUMMA & YANN SOMMER TO BE FOULED 1+ TIME - 27/1 (SKY BET) - 0.25PTS
Munich is the destination for the final of Europe's premier club competition for the fifth time, with PSG and Inter Milan doing battle. For the Parisians they will be hoping to become the fifth side to get their hands on the title for the first time of asking when the final has been contested in Munich. It looks to be more than just an omen that is against Inter heading into this one, with PSG coming in as the favourites. However, the style of Simone Inzaghi's side has helped them get the better of tournament favourites Barcelona in the last round, so they'll be hoping to call upon some of that grit to get their hands on Europe's top honour for a fourth time.
I tipped the Nerazzurri to go all the way in this competition back in March, and they have at least got me some form of payout by making it to the final. However, I feel that they may be up against it when facing a PSG side who have transformed their season since the turn of the year, and look a real force amongst Europe's elite. That being said, I feel that there is every chance that this clinical Inter side will get themselves on the scoresheet. They didn't manage it when facing Manchester City in the final two years ago, and that is among the last six finals to see one of the sides fail to score. This PSG side do have their defensive frailties, especially given their front foot style of play, and I can see Inter wing back Denzel Dumfries profiting in the Champions League once again. The Dutchman was involved in five of his side's seven goals against Barcelona in the Semi-Final, and has seventeen goal involvements to his name this season. Dumfries scored and assisted in the first leg against the Spaniards and I am backing him to do so again here at 75/1. Whilst it's unlikely that he'll manage both a goal and assist in a Champions League Final, I am happy to take a small punt at the price. He has scored and assisted in the same match on four occasions for club and country this season.
I am also keen to get Dumfries onside when it comes to picking up a card, given the likelihood that Dumfries is caught out of position against the rapid PSG left side of Nuno Mendes and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. The latter is the most fouled player for PSG since his January move from Napoli, averaging 1.83 fouls won per 90. Dumfries picked up a card when he faced Kvaratskhelia in November in Serie A, and given he is committing an average of 2.26 fouls per 90 this season, there's every chance that he finds his way into the notebook of referee Istvan Kovacs.
An angle which proved profitable in the Conference League Final was backing a goalkeeper to be fouled, and we had some luck in this landing inside two minutes on Wednesday. Whilst I don't expect this to land in that timeframe here, I am happy to look to exploit the angle once again. Nicolas Jackson's foul on Adrian on Wednesday took the total to seven of the last ten European finals that have seen at least one keeper fouled, and with 7/2 on offer for PSG stopper Gianluigi Donnarumma to be fouled here, it's well worth a play. Donnarumma has been fouled six times in the Champions League this season, and should either side be holding a lead coming into the final minutes, it's likely that their keeper will use every trick in the book to kill an extra few seconds by buying a foul.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
N/A
