Germany vs Portugal - Preview, Best Bets & H2H Record
- JN Value Betting
- Jun 3
- 2 min read
Updated: Jun 4
BEST BETS:
GERMANY - TO COMMIT 11+ FOULS - 1/1 (SKY BET) - 1PT
GERMANY - TO COMMIT 16+ FOULS - 10/1 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS
RENATO VEIGA - TO HAVE 1+ SHOT - 17/10 (CORAL) - 1PT
Just four days on from hosting the Champions League Final, the Allianz Arena is the destination for the first of the UEFA Nations League Semi-Finals. Germany earned the right to host the finals of this iteration of the Nations League when they defeated Italy over two legs back in March. Die Mannschaft are ranked tenth in the FIFA World Rankings and welcome the nation ranked three places above them in Portugal. Roberto Martinez's men got the better of Denmark in extra time of their second leg to book their place in this summer's Finals. Despite losing his first home game in charge of his nation, Julian Nagelsmann has seen his Germany side avoid defeat in their next eleven home matches under his tutelage. They'll fancy their chances of facing either France or Spain in Sunday's final given their strength at home. Although, they'll face a tough task against the inaugural winners of this competition, who have only tasted defeat once in this current Nations League campaign.
Germany have only tasted defeat once in their last seventeen matches, when losing to eventual Champions Spain in extra time at last summer's European Championships, this has seen Head Coach Julian Nagelsmann's contract extended to 2028. He has deployed his usual 'Gegenpressing' style on the national team and that has seen them commit a larger number of fouls since his appointment. In the 21 games since he took charge of the side, they have committed at least eleven fouls in 16. With referee Slavko Vincic averaged 27.48 fouls per game in UEFA competitions this season, I was surprised to see 1/1 available on Germany to commit 11+ fouls. Although they have only committed sixteen or more fouls in 4 of his 21 matches, I am still happy to have a small play on the 10/1 on offer for them to do so here. Due to this being a semi-final, and with Vincic in charge, I feel we could see a large number of fouls awarded.
Portuguese centre back Renato Veiga has enjoyed more game time since getting a move to Juventus in January, this could put him into contention for a return to Roberto Martinez's starting side for this one. Veiga has started four of Portugal's last six matches, having a shot in all four of those starts, he has also had a shot in 18 of his 28 matches for club and country this season, making the 17/10 available for him to do so here look generous.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
19/06/21 - Portugal 2-4 GERMANY (European Championship)
16/06/14 - GERMANY 4-0 Portugal (World Cup)
09/06/12 - GERMANY 1-0 Portugal (European Championship)
19/06/08 - Portugal 2-3 GERMANY (European Championship) 08/07/06 - GERMANY 3-1 Portugal (World Cup)
