Premier League 2025/26 - Outright Preview

JN Value Betting
Aug 8
10 min read

BEST BETS:

COLE PALMER - TOP GOALSCORER - 20/21 (BET365) - 0.5PTS E/W (4 PLACES)

BRUNO FERNANDES - MOST ASSISTS - 9/1 (BET365) - 1PT

BRYAN MBEUMO - MOST ASSISTS - 66/1 (BET365) - 0.5PTS E/W (4 PLACES)

AMAD DIALLO - MOST ASSISTS - 150/1 (BET365) - 0.25PTS E/W (4 PLACES)

KEVIN SCHADE - TOP BRENTFORD GOALSCORER & JORGEN STRAND LARSEN - TOP WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS GOALSCORER - 6.2/1 (BET365) - 1PT

MO SALAH - PFA PLAYER OF THE YEAR WINNER - 9/1 (BET365) - 1PT

VITOR PEREIRA - NEXT MANAGER TO LEAVE - 14/1 (WILLIAM HILL) - 0.5PTS

Just 82 days separate the final day of the 2024/25 Premier League season, and the start of the 2025/26 season. Last season's champions Liverpool lifted the Premier League trophy in front of their fans for the first time, and will be the side to raise the curtain on another ten months of action.

Given the title race and relegation battle was done and dusted coming into the final weeks of the season, it left just the race for European football alive for fans to get their teeth stuck into. It's unlikely that we see that again this season, with plenty of teams vying to throw their hat into the ring for the title race.

Last season was the second consecutive season where we saw the three promoted sides make an immediate return to the Championship - having not happened since 1998 prior to this. The gulf in class between the first and second tier seems to be growing, and Leeds United, Burnley and Sunderland will all be looking to break the mould of the existing seventeen sides who have now enjoyed at least a three-season stay in the league.

Arne Slot's Liverpool side may have had key figures exit with Trent Alexander-Arnold's departure to Real Madrid, Luis Diaz's move to Bayern Munich, and the tragic loss of Diogo Jota. However, they have strengthened across the board with the arrivals of Jeremie Frimpong, Milos Kerkez, Florian Wirtz & Hugo Ekitike, and they rightfully occupy favouritism in the outright market. The manner in which they won the title last season was emphatic and it will take a very well organised side to stop them making it back-to-back titles. However, I am happy to bypass them in the market at 7/4, especially given the longevity of the selection. Should they manage to get their hands on Alexander Isak, then that 7/4 will only shorten, with the Swedish talisman only strengthening what is already a sharp looking frontline.

Given the success of Pep Guardiola's Manchester City side in recent seasons, it is hard to ignore their title credentials, following what was an 'off' season for the Citizens last campaign. They're only as big as 7/2 to regain their crown this season, and despite their obvious scope to improve on last season, it's hard to ignore the level to which they dropped to last campaign with the absence of Rodri. I feel that the issues ran deeper than just losing their key man to injury for most of the season, and coupling that with the 115 charges that incredibly still lurk overhead, I am happy to pass up the 7/2 on offer for them to win yet another Premier League title.

London holds they key for the other two main market protagonists, with Arsenal being priced at 5/2 and 10/1 being available on newly crowned World Champions Chelsea. The former have occupied the runner-up spot in the last three seasons, and have been crying out for a striker to guide them to silverware. They now have their man by way of Viktor Gyokeres from Sporting, and whilst his goalscoring threat is clear to see, I feel that the Gunners may find at least one too good for a fourth consecutive season. With just 5/2 available on them to win a first Premier League title in 22 seasons, they don't jump off the page enough to carry my money. Chelsea present a much more intriguing price as they edge into a double-figure price, and will be looking to land a third piece of silverware under Enzo Maresca. Despite the Italian looking to be stumbling across his best eleven, I feel that there are missing pieces to the Chelsea puzzle, and I cannot get involved at the prices on offer.

I will however, be getting stuck into the Top Goalscorer market, and will be looking to West London for my selection. Chelsea's hero in the Club World Cup Final was their 'big game player' Cole Palmer, with him grabbing two goals and assisting the third in the Blues' 3-0 win over PSG. Palmer had a return to form from May last season, culminating in the Man of the Match performance in the Club World Cup Final, having not scored since mid-January, prior to Chelsea's win over Premier League champions Liverpool at the start of May. That was an alarming drop-off in form, however, this was the first barren spell of Palmer's career, and proved this was just a blip when firing his side to Club World Cup glory.

There are four places available in this market, and despite his drought in the second half of last season, Palmer still managed to finish ninth in the goalscoring charts, just five goals off the places. Following his fourteenth Premier League goal of last season, Palmer sat third in the top scorer leaderboard, behind Mo Salah and Erling Haaland. Coupling this with his 22 goals in the 2023/24 season, it shouldn't take too much for Chelsea's number ten to be troubling the top of these charts once again.

Nine of the last ten seasons have seen the fourth placed top scorer finish with 15.00+ xG - something which Palmer has achieved in his two seasons with Chelsea. All ten have also scored at least seventeen goals, and with him still managing fifteen goals in what turned out to be a disappointing second third of the season, the 20/1 on offer looks appealing.

COLE PALMER - TOP GOALSCORER - 20/1 (BET365) - 0.5PTS E/W (4 PLACES)

An outright market which I am keen to exploit some value in is the 'Most Assists' market, with some bookmakers paying four places on this market as well.

Owing to their derisory performance last season, there is understandably some apprehension surrounding Manchester United players within the markets, and the Most Assists market is no different. Having analysed the last ten winners of this award, it is clear to see that their side enjoyed a successful season, with nine of the last ten having finished in the top four - the only exception being Harry Kane in 2020/21, with his Spurs side finishing seventh. It is hard to see Man United making their mark on the Champions League places this season, but I feel that an improvement to be challenging for the European places is certainly on the cards, especially considering they have no continental competition to contest with this season.

The Red Devils' captain Bruno Fernandes managed ten assists in the Premier League last season, and was one of very few Man United players that can take any pride in their output domestically in the last campaign. Given their struggles, it is remarkable that Fernandes provided ten assists in a team that underperformed so drastically. Should we see an improvement from him this campaign, he could certainly threaten the top of the charts. That makes the 9/1 on offer for him to register the most assists look appealing, with only Mohamed Salah, Jacob Murphy and Anthony Elanga finishing with more assist than Fernandes last campaign.

All of the last ten players to finish with the most assists have managed at least thirteen assists throughout the season, and given the firepower in the Man United attack has been increased, we could easily see Fernandes register three more assists than last time out.

BRUNO FERNANDES - MOST ASSISTS - 9/1 (BET365) - 1PT

One of the players which Fernandes could be providing assists for is new signing Bryan Mbeumo, the Cameroon international has made the move from Brentford, having scored 20 goals for the Bees last campaign. Despite his eye for goal, I am actually looking to get Mbeumo onside in the Most Assists market. He has registered at least six assists in all four of his previous Premier League seasons, and had a 10.38 xA last season when registering seven in South West London.

Any player to have made their way into the places in this market across the last ten seasons has had at least 7.00 xA, something which Mbeumo has managed in two of his last three seasons. Whilst he isn't set to be the main cog in this Man United side, like he would have been at Brentford, I feel that his output in this regard could be raised, given the quality of player he will be playing alongside. He will likely benefit from the Ruben Amorim system, playing in a front three alongside Matheus Cunha and imminent new signing Benjamin Sesko. His price at 66/1 certainly presents some value, with us getting a payout of just under 8/1 should he finish in the top four of the charts.

BRYAN MBEUMO - MOST ASSISTS - 66/1 (BET365) - 0.5PTS E/W (4 PLACES)

Another player who looks certain to benefit from the Ruben Amorim system is Amad Diallo, the youngster showed glimpses of brilliance in this setup last season prior to an injury ruling him out for three months towards the end of the campaign.

Diallo had a hand in fourteen goals following the appointment of Amorim in November, and looked to flourish in the Portuguese manager's system. He finished the Premier League season with six assists in his 1,903 minutes - averaging an assist every 317 minutes. Should he enjoy an injury free season, he could easily make double figures when it comes to assists, and that should see him amongst the leaders in this statistic. His price of 150/1 makes great appeal, with four places on offer, there is every chance he could prove a profitable angle.

AMAD DIALLO - MOST ASSISTS - 150/1 (BET365) - 0.25PTS E/W (4 PLACES)

Thomas Frank's exit from Brentford has sparked somewhat of an exodus when it comes to Brentford's star players, with the aforementioned Bryan Mbeumo making the move to Manchester United, and captain Christian Norgaard switching South West London for North London and securing a move to Arsenal.

The latest player looking to leave the Gtech Community Stadium is Yoane Wissa, whose eighteen goals last season has attracted interest from Newcastle and Thomas Frank's new side Tottenham. Should Wissa become the latest player to leave, it certainly makes the 2/1 available for Kevin Schade to be the Bees' top Premier League goalscorer this season look massive. The German managed eleven goals last season, when attempting to keep pace with Mbeumo and Wissa. Should Brentford start to rely on his goals, we could easily see him register a higher total, and top the scoring charts for his side.

Given that a selection at 2/1 isn't as attractive when you have to wait ten months for it's outcome, I have looked to pair this with another selection in the 'Top Team Goalscorer' market to add some juice to the price. I landed on Wolves' Norwegian frontman Jorgen Strand Larsen, who got himself fourteen goals in his debut season in the Premier League. Due to the absence of Matheus Cunha in this Wolves side, it looks certain that Strand Larsen will lead the line for the Midlands outfit, and his price at 7/5 looks appealing when compared to other prices on offer for other sides.

The one slight doubt surrounding this selection is the chance that Strand Larsen is subject to transfer interest. However, given his importance to Wolves in the wake of Cunha's exit, they look set to demand a large fee, which should deter any interested parties.

A double on the two comes in at just a shade over 7/1, which could look huge if they lead the line for their respective sides through the season.

KEVIN SCHADE - TOP BRENTFORD GOALSCORER & JORGEN STRAND LARSEN - TOP WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS GOALSCORER - 6.2/1 (BET365) - 1PT

The standout player of the 2024/25 season was Liverpool's Mohamed Salah, who registered 29 goals and 18 assists in a remarkable season for the Egyptian. He looks certain to be crowned the PFA Player of the Year for last season at the PFA Awards on 19th August, which would be his third time claiming the accolade.

Whilst Salah will be another year older for this campaign, he showed no signs of stopping last season, finishing six goals clear of the remainder of the league, and registering seven more assists than any other player as well. I was shocked to see that you can get 9/1 on Salah to win the award for the upcoming season, especially given his dominance last campaign. There are five players ahead of the Egyptian in the market, including new teammate Florian Wirtz, and whilst there is every chance Salah doesn't scale the heights of last season, anything close would give him a great chance of claiming the award once again.

Nine of the last ten winners played for one of the top two sides in the league, and it's hard to see that Liverpool will suffer a drop-off that fails to see them having a major say in the title race. With the crowning of Salah looking inevitable for last season's award, that will signal a remarkable stranglehold on the award from Liverpool and Manchester City, with them providing the last eight winners.

There is every chance that a player proves better than Salah for this upcoming season, however, the price on offer is too large for a player who dominated the league just last season.

MO SALAH - PFA PLAYER OF THE YEAR WINNER - 9/1 (BET365) - 1PT

Given the struggles of newly promoted sides in recent seasons, it is hard to find any value in the Relegation markets, with each of the seventeen sides who were in the division last season, being well established. One side who looks to be showing cracks in their armour is Wolves. The Midlands side have lost key players in Matheus Cunha and Rayan Ait-Nouri, and it's hard to see their replacements providing the same output that kept Wolves in the league last season following their early struggles.

They're best priced 10/3 to fall into the second tier following their promotion to the top flight back in the 2017/18 season. A strong second half to last season was enough to haul themselves off the canvas and finish well clear of the relegation places under manager Vitor Pereira. However, I feel that this season it may not be as easy for them to pull clear of the drop zone.

Pereira managed to galvanise his squad following the dismissal of Gary O'Neil in December, and saw him pick up 33 of their 42 points last season. However, the Brazilian is never too far from controversy, seeing just two of his last nine managerial positions last longer than ten months. Both of those were with sides who typically dominate their respective divisions in Fenerbahce and Shanghai SIPG. He has lasted more than fifty matches in just three of those nine jobs, with his last two only managing a combined 48 games in charge.

Wolves have been dealt a tricky start to the season, with them facing Manchester City, Newcastle and Tottenham in their opening seven matches. A tricky away tie on the South Coast to face Bournemouth is in amongst home matches against Everton and Brighton, which could leave this Wolves side struggling as we approach the October international break. Chairman Jeff Shi has pulled the trigger on his manager in two of the last three seasons prior to Christmas, with Bruno Lage being dismissed at the start of October in the 2022/23 campaign. I feel that this makes the 14/1 on offer for Pereira to be the first manager to leave look generous, and I am happy to take a small punt on him at the price.

VITOR PEREIRA - NEXT MANAGER TO LEAVE - 14/1 (WILLIAM HILL) - 0.5PTS