Premier League Value Bets - 02/04/25
- JN Value Betting
- Apr 1
- 3 min read
BEST BETS:
AFC BOURNEMOUTH VS IPSWICH TOWN:
AFC BOURNEMOUTH - TO COMMIT 13+ FOULS - 6/5 (PADDY POWER) - 2PTS
AFC BOURNEMOUTH - TO COMMIT 14+ FOULS - 15/8 (PADDY POWER) - 1PT
AFC BOURNEMOUTH - TO COMMIT 15+ FOULS - 3/1 (PADDY POWER) - 0.5PTS
AFC BOURNEMOUTH - TO COMMIT 16+ FOULS - 9/2 (PADDY POWER) - 0.25PTS
SOUTHAMPTON VS CRYSTAL PALACE:
CRYSTAL PALACE - (-1) ASIAN HANDICAP - 1/1 (BET365) - 1PT
Liverpool will look to take another step closer to a record-equalling twentieth top flight title when they welcome Merseyside rivals Everton to Anfield. Arne Slot's men will be looking to bounce back from their Carabao Cup Final defeat, and their exit from the Champions League at the hands of PSG. Everton have been rejuvenated under David Moyes, unbeaten in their last nine Premier League matches, since the Scotsman's return to Goodison Park. Those nine matches include their reverse fixture between the two sides when James Tarkowski scored an equaliser deep into stoppage time to earn a 2-2 draw. Elsewhere, the race for the European places hots up with Brighton hosting Aston Villa, and Newcastle, fresh from their Carabao Cup success, take on Brentford.
AFC BOURNEMOUTH VS IPSWICH TOWN
Bournemouth's FA Cup run came to an end on Sunday when they surrendered a 1-0 lead at home to Manchester City, continuing the club's search for a major trophy. Their form has been patchy of late, failing to win any of their last four league matches. That could be down to their injury issues catching up with them, but they'll certainly fancy their chances of bouncing back here, at home to Ipswich, who are still looking for a league win in 2025. It's been a tough return to the Premier League for Kieran McKenna's men, and they look all but certain for a return to the Championship at the first time of asking.
Given the expectation of a Bournemouth win here, the market has not missed them whatsoever, with the home side as short as 1/3 to take all three points. I'm happy to stick with a previous winning angle for me, with the market having not caught up with the Cherries in the fouls markets. They have committed at least thirteen fouls in fifteen of their last sixteen matches, with them averaging 13.82 fouls per game this season - this is up to 14.87 fouls when looking at the last sixteen. Bournemouth committed thirteen fouls in the reverse fixture, and with Robert Jones in charge of this one, I am happy to get stuck in on laddering the selection up to 16+ fouls. Jones is averaging 25.12 fouls per game in the Premier League this season, the highest of any referee who has been in charge of three or more matches (Jones has taken charge of seventeen matches).
SOUTHAMPTON VS CRYSTAL PALACE
Southampton are just ten Premier League matches away from entering the record books for all the wrong reasons. The Saints have just nine points from their 28 matches so far this season, sitting two points off the previous record set by Derby County in the 2007/08 season. They welcome a buoyant Crystal Palace side to St Mary's with the Eagles securing a place in the Semi-Final of the FA Cup for the second time in four seasons. It's hard to see anything other than an away win given the form of Oliver Glasner's side entering this one.
Whilst Palace look particularly short in the win market here, I am keen to get them onside on the Asian Handicap. The visitors are unbeaten in their last nine away league matches, winning the last four of them all 2-0. A repeat of that would see us with a winning selection, when backing them at -1. Southampton have lost their last nine home league matches, conceding at least two goals in eight of those nine. Should Palace only manage to win the match by one goal, we'll still get a refund on this selection, giving us a good insurance.
