Wolves vs Nottingham Forest - Preview, Best Bets & H2H Record
- JN Value Betting
- Jan 5
- 3 min read
Updated: Jan 7
BEST BETS:
MURILLO - TO HAVE 1+ SHOT - 11/10 (WILLIAM HILL) - 1PT
NIKOLA MILENKOVIC & MURILLO - BOTH TO HAVE 1+ SHOT - 12/5 (WILLIAM HILL) - 1PT
NIKOLA MILENKOVIC - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 14/1 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS
MURILLO - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 22/1 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS
It's been a bright start to Vitor Pereira's reign as Wolves boss, taking seven points from his opening three games. Many wouldn't have thought that his toughest task is ahead of him as they welcome high-flying Nottingham Forest to Molineux - given that they've already faced Man United and had a trip to Spurs. This will test the mettle of this Wolves side and signal whether they have what it takes to steer themselves away from the drop zone. Their task has been made tougher following the suspension of top scorer Matheus Cunha following his full time outburst in last month's defeat to Ipswich. This will mark Nuno Espirito Santo's first trip back to Molineux following his successful spell as the club's manager - where he guided them back to the Premier League and into the European spots, enjoying a Europa League Quarter-Final. His name is being bounded around as far is Manager of the Season is concerned, and rightly so following the start by his Forest side. A chance to go level on points with second placed Arsenal awaits them and you'd think that they'd be more than capable of getting the job done considering their away form this season. After all, they still remain the only side to have claimed the scalp of Arne Slot's Liverpool.
Whilst there has been a clear improvement following Vitor Pereira's arrival at Molineux, it remains to be seen as to whether their set-piece woes have been remedied. Wolves boast the league's worst record when it comes to defending set-pieces and have conceded a whopping nine goals from their opponents centre halves. Enter Nottingham Forest, who have only been bettered by Arsenal and Crystal Palace when it comes to scoring from set-pieces. The physicality and sheer size of the Nottingham Forest centre halves will no doubt strike fear into an already frail Wolves defence. Therefore, I have delved into the player shots market and the anytime goalscorer markets to identify some value. The likeliest avenue of shots and goals from the Nottingham Forest defenders is from Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo. The former is averaging 0.95 shots per game this season and has had at least one shot in 10 of his last 11 matches. Meanwhile, Murillo has had a shot in 10 of his last 12 matches. There is slightly too little value in backing just Milenkovic to have a shot on his own, but I am happy to get stuck in on the price of Murillo at 11/10. The pair to have at least one shot each is 12/5 and has landed in 8 of the last 10 matches they have started together, so I am happy to take this price.
Finally, to eek out slightly more value, I am happy to take a small punt on them each to score priced at 14/1 (Milenkovic) and 22/1 (Murillo), Milenkovic has scored twice in his last five games, so the 14/1 on offer represents good value against a vulnerable Wolves side when it comes to set-pieces.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
31/08/2024 - Nottingham Forest 1-1 Wolves (Premier League)
13/04/2024 - Nottingham Forest 2-2 Wolves (Premier League)
09/12/2023 - Wolves 1-1 Nottingham Forest (Premier League)
01/04/2023 - Nottingham Forest 1-1 Wolves (Premier League)
11/01/2023 - NOTTINGHAM FOREST 1-1 (4-3 pens) Wolves (EFL Cup)
