Weekend Best Bets (23/05/25 - 25/05/25)

JN Value Betting
May 21
7 min read

Updated: May 25

BEST BETS:

SUNDAY:

OVER 1.5 GOALS IN ALL 10 PREMIER LEAGUE GAMES - 7/2 (BETFAIR) - 1PT

LIVERPOOL VS CRYSTAL PALACE:

EBERECHI EZE - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 10/3 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS

MANCHESTER UNITED VS ASTON VILLA:

ASTON VILLA - (-1) ASIAN HANDICAP - 6/5 (BET365) - 1PT

NOTTINGHAM FOREST VS CHELSEA:

ELLIOT ANDERSON - TO BE CARDED - 9/2 (SKY BET) - 1PT

MARC CUCURELLA - TO BE CARDED - 2/1 (UNIBET) - 1PT

ELLIOT ANDERSON & MARC CUCURELLA - TO BE CARDED - 11/1 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS

SOUTHAMPTON VS ARSENAL:

DECLAN RICE - TO ASSIST A GOAL - 18/5 (UNIBET) - 1PT

TOTTENHAM VS BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION:

MATS WIEFFER - TO ASSIST A GOAL - 11/2 (BETFAIR) - 1PT

MATS WIEFFER - TO BE CARDED - 6/1 (SKY BET) - 1PT

MATS WIEFFER - TO ASSIST A GOAL & TO BE CARDED - 34.52/1 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS

WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS VS BRENTFORD:

CHRISTIAN NORGAARD - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 8/1 (PADDY POWER) - 0.5PTS

SEPP VAN DEN BERG - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 16/1 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS

NATHAN COLLINS - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 16/1 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS

CHRISTIAN NORGAARD & NATHAN COLLINS - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 85/1 (SKY BET) - 0.25PTS

ALREADY ADVISED:

SATURDAY:

RAYO VALLECANO VS MALLORCA:

PATHE CISS - TO BE CARDED - 7/2 (BET365) - 1PT

It's the last weekend of the domestic league season across Europe with final matchdays and cup finals awaiting us. The Premier League European race is still yet to be decided with five teams all vying for the three remaining spots in the Champions League. While there is a relegation battle still to be decided in Spain and Italy, and silverware up for grabs across three nations.

PREMIER LEAGUE FINAL DAY

The Premier League draws to a close on Sunday afternoon, and there is one thing that is guaranteed. Goals. The final day of the season has seen an average of 3.41 goals per game across the last ten seasons, with three of those ten seasons seeing every game have at least two goals. I am happy to take the 7/2 on offer for this to happen on Sunday. This has seen a near miss of 9/10 games landing in four of the seven seasons in which it didn't hit, so we have a good chance of this going close.

LIVERPOOL VS CRYSTAL PALACE

It will be a party atmosphere at Anfield on Sunday when Liverpool are crowned Champions of England for a record equalling twentieth time. They will not be the only ones celebrating as visitors Crystal Palace are still revelling in their FA Cup success last weekend. This will undoubtedly have the feel of an end of season game with both sides in party mode, and I feel we could see a number of goals.

Given the expectation of goals, I turned my attention to the goalscorer markets and was surprised to see Palace's star man Eberechi Eze priced at 10/3 to find the net here. Eze has seven goals in his last six matches, and has scored in all of those six appearances. He also got on the scoresheet in this fixture last season when his side were surprise 1-0 winners.

MANCHESTER UNITED VS ASTON VILLA

Manchester United will be licking their wounds going into the final day of the season following their defeat in the Europa League Final on Wednesday evening, but they do have another chance to spoil a European party as they could deny Aston Villa a place in next season's Champions League. Given the form of the two sides, and the motivation for the visitors, I can see them adding insult to injury for the Red Devils here.

I am happy to take the 6/5 on offer for Aston Villa -1 in the Asian Handicap markets. They have won nine of their last eleven Premier League matches and face a Manchester United side who have lost six of their last eight league games - they have also tasted defeat in seven of their last eleven home league games. We will secure a refund should Villa at least win the game, and then will have a winning selection should they win by two or more goals.

NOTTINGHAM FOREST VS CHELSEA

The game with the most riding on it comes from the City Ground where Nottingham Forest and Chelsea face off with both sides looking to book their place in the Champions League. There is a scenario where both of these sides could end up outside of the top five. However, it feels as if they will put everything on the line to ensure that one of them is welcoming European heavyweights to their ground next season. Regardless of the outcome, Nottingham Forest have punched well above their weight this season, but will undoubtedly not be content with just settling for European football outside of the Champions League. Chelsea will have one eye on their Europa Conference League Final in midweek, however, this will dictate next season more so than Wednesday evening.

Given what is at stake for both sides, this screams of a match which will have a large number of cards, with both sides doing everything in their power to come out on top. I was surprised to see 9/2 available for Elliot Anderson to pick up a card here. Anderson has ten cards to his name this season in 3,034 minutes and is tasked with stopping any counter attacks that may come Nottingham Forest's way. He is averaging 1.60 fouls per 90 this season and has picked up three cards in his last four matches. Marc Cucurella has picked up eleven cards across 3,595 minutes this campaign, including in the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge. I feel he could easily get embroiled in what will be a tense atmosphere and could add to his tally of cards. I am happy to have a small play on the pair to be carded at 11/1, with this one displaying every sign that it could boil over.

SOUTHAMPTON VS ARSENAL

The term 'dead rubber' can often be applicable for many games on the final day of the season, and the tie between Southampton and Arsenal is no different. The hosts had their relegation confirmed seven games ago, while Arsenal come into this one knowing their place in the Champions League is secured for next season. I feel that there still could be some entertainment on offer by way of goals with both sets of players firmly 'on the beach'. That could lead to us seeing a high number of goals in this one.

Due to the expectation of goals, notably from Arsenal, I turned my attention to the player markets and was drawn to the price on Declan Rice to assist a goal. Rice has ten assists to his name this season, and given the likelihood that Arsenal score multiple goals here, I can see Rice being involved with him occupying a more advanced role against a deep Southampton backline.

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR VS BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION

Tottenham will have weary eyes following their celebrations since Wednesday evening's Europa League triumph. They do still have business to attend to on the final day as they host European chasing Brighton. Fabian Hurzeler's side need a point to secure eighth place and have a chance at gaining a Europa Conference League place (depending on other results). There is every reason to believe that they will secure that point given the focus of Tottenham being on their victory on Wednesday.

These two sides have enjoyed some 'goalfests' in recent seasons, and I can see this one being no different. We have seen seventeen goals across the last four meetings, and with a party atmosphere guaranteed here, we could see an entertaining encounter. I am happy to keep the faith with the selections I opted for in Brighton's victory over Liverpool on Monday evening, with Mats Wieffer to assist a goal and to pick up a card. The Dutchman has been deployed at right back on five occasions this season, assisting in three of those, whilst picking up a card in two of them. He has five assists and six cards to his name this season in just 1,075 minutes, and this makes the prices available for him here look massive.

WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS VS BRENTFORD

There is a very remote chance that Brentford could be playing European football next season for the first time in their history. However, they must win here to ensure that dream remains alive, so will welcome facing a Wolves side who have nothing to play for. That has seen them lose their last three matches and the Bees will be hoping to inflict a fourth straight defeat here, bouncing back from their damaging 3-2 defeat to Fulham last weekend.

The reverse fixture between these sides produced eight goals with Brentford running out 5-3 victors, I feel that we could see something similar here with Brentford going all out to try and secure three points. Their route to victory could be by exploiting Wolves' frailty from set pieces - the hosts have the worst record from defending set pieces this season, conceding 21 goals. That has led me to look for an angle in the goalscorer markets, and I have been drawn to Christian Norgaard, Sepp van den Berg and Nathan Collins, all at bigger prices. Norgaard has five goals to his name this season, with three of those coming from set pieces. He also has had the most shots by any Brentford player from dead ball situations this campaign. van den Berg and Collins have both closely matched him on that stat having the second and fourth most shots from those situations. I was surprised to see 16/1 available for ex-Wolves man Collins to haunt them with him having scored one of his two league goals this season in the reverse fixture. Norgaard was also on the scoresheet that day and I am happy to have a very small play on the pair to repeat the feat and score again here at 85/1.

RAYO VALLECANO VS MALLORCA

Rayo Vallecano enter the final matchweek of the La Liga season with a real chance of achieving their best ever top flight finish. Inigo Perez's men currently occupy eighth place in La Liga with a win securing them European football for the first time since 2000. They face a Mallorca side who sit just two places below them in the table, however, they know their European race is already run.

As is a common theme at this time of the season, I am turning my attention to the player cards markets. The atmosphere will undoubtedly be tense for Vallecano, and I can see this leading to them putting everything on the line to get the result required. They have accumulated the fourth most yellow cards in La Liga this season and I can see that form continuing with the stakes so high here. Pathe Ciss has contributed eleven yellow cards in La Liga this season, with ten of those cards coming in his 24 starts. The Senegalese midfielder is committing 1.91 fouls per 90 this season, and I feel he is a prime candidate to receive a card in this one. Ciss is as short as 2/1 to find his way into the referee's notebook, and I feel this is a fair price given his record this season, making the 7/2 available a huge price.