Weekend Best Bets (16/05/25 - 20/05/25)

JN Value Betting
May 15
15 min read

Updated: May 20

BEST BETS:

TUESDAY:

MANCHESTER CITY VS AFC BOURNEMOUTH:

AFC BOURNEMOUTH - TO COMMIT 11+ FOULS & TO RECEIVE 2+ CARDS - 17/20 (BETFAIR) - 2PTS

LEWIS COOK - TO BE CARDED - 15/4 (BET365) - 1PT

TYLER ADAMS - TO BE CARDED - 11/2 (SKY BET) - 1PT

LEWIS COOK & TYLER ADAMS - TO BE CARDED - 19/1 (UNIBET) - 0.5PTS

ALREADY ADVISED:

FRIDAY:

ASTON VILLA VS TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR:

MORGAN ROGERS - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 13/8 (UNIBET) - 1PT

MORGAN ROGERS - TO ASSIST A GOAL - 3/1 (UNIBET) - 1PT

MORGAN ROGERS - TO SCORE AND ASSIST - 10/1 (UNIBET) - 0.25PTS

CHELSEA VS MANCHESTER UNITED:

CHELSEA - (-1) ASIAN HANDICAP - 10/11 (BET365) - 2PTS

MARC CUCURELLA - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 12/1 (PADDY POWER) - 0.5PTS

SATURDAY:

CRYSTAL PALACE VS MANCHESTER CITY:

MANCHESTER CITY - TO WIN (90 MINS) + UNDER 3.5 MATCH GOALS - 7/4 (BETFRED) - 1PT

NICO O'REILLY - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 9/1 (PADDY POWER) - 0.5PTS

STRASBOURG VS LE HAVRE:

STRASBOURG - TO WIN & BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE - 7/4 (BET365) - 1PT

SUNDAY:

EVERTON VS SOUTHAMPTON:

EVERTON - TO HAVE 20+ SHOTS - 17/5 (WILLIAM HILL) - 1PT

EVERTON - TO HAVE 22+ SHOTS - 13/2 (WILLIAM HILL) - 0.5PTS

EVERTON - TO HAVE 23+ SHOTS - 9/1 (WILLIAM HILL) - 0.25PTS

EVERTON - TO HAVE 25+ SHOTS - 14/1 (WILLIAM HILL) - 0.25PTS

EVERTON - TO HAVE 26+ SHOTS - 22/1 (WILLIAM HILL) - 0.25PTS

WEST HAM UNITED VS NOTTINGHAM FOREST:

TOMAS SOUCEK - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 17/4 (UNIBET) - 0.5PTS

LEICESTER CITY VS IPSWICH TOWN:

JAMIE VARDY - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 8/5 (PADDY POWER) - 1PT

JAMIE VARDY - TO SCORE ANYTIME & TO BE CARDED - 8/5 (PADDY POWER) - 0.5PTS

BRENTFORD VS FULHAM:

CHRISTIAN NORGAARD - TO BE CARDED - 17/5 (UNIBET) - 1PT

ANDREAS PEREIRA - TO BE CARDED - 17/5 (UNIBET) - 1PT

CHRISTIAN NORGAARD & ANDREAS PEREIRA - TO BE CARDED - 18/1 (UNIBET) - 0.5PTS

ARSENAL VS NEWCASTLE UNITED:

BRUNO GUIMARAES - TO BE CARDED - 3/1 (BET VICTOR) - 1PT

FABIAN SCHAR - TO BE CARDED - 3/1 (PADDY POWER) - 1PT

MONDAY:

BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION VS LIVERPOOL:

MATS WIEFFER - TO ASSIST A GOAL - 13/2 (BETFAIR) - 1PT

MATS WIEFFER - TO BE CARDED - 5/1 (SKY BET) - 1PT

MATS WIEFFER - TO ASSIST A GOAL & TO BE CARDED - 31.62/1 (BETFAIR) - 0.25PTS

We're firmly entering the dying embers of the season with two of Europe's top five leagues coming to a close this weekend by way of the Bundesliga and Ligue 1. The Premier League, La Liga and Serie A enter their penultimate weekend's with the plenty still left to be decided. Due to the FA Cup Final taking place this weekend, the action in the Premier League takes place over four days; Friday, Sunday, Monday & Tuesday.

MANCHESTER CITY VS AFC BOURNEMOUTH

A wounded Manchester City must pick themselves back up from losing Saturday's FA Cup Final to ensure that they secure Champions League football at the Etihad for next season. A win against Bournemouth will put them firmly in the driving seat in that race for the Champions League places, and this is sure to be an intriguing encounter against a Cherries side who still harbour European dreams of their own. Andoni Iraola's side must win to keep their faint hopes alive of delivering European football to the Vitality Stadium next season.

Given the importance of this fixture for both sides, I immediately drew my attention to the fouls and cards markets. Bournemouth are the foul specialists in the Premier League sitting well clear at the top of the league when it comes to committing fouls. This is a symptom of Andoni Iraola's pressing style of play, and I am keen to take advantage here, especially given the likelihood of Bournemouth attempting to benefit from their likely fragile opponents. The Cherries have committed an average of 13.78 fouls per game this season, and are averaging 2.66 yellow cards per game as a result. I have looked to manufacture a palatable price in the fouls and cards markets and have opted to back Bournemouth to commit 11+ fouls and to receive 2+ cards at 17/20. This selection has landed in 29/41 matches for the visitors this season - a 70% strike rate. Referee Thomas Bramall has officiated the South Coast side on three occasions since the appointment of Iraola, with this selection landing on all three occasions. It has also been a winning selection in three of the four matches against Manchester City under Iraola - with the only exception being the first meeting at the start of last season where City ran out convincing 6-1 winners, with the tie being over at 3-0 after 37 minutes.

I am also keen to take advantage of some generous pricing on a couple of Bournemouth players in the player card markets. Lewis Cook looks set to regain his place in the heart of midfield owing to the absence of Alex Scott, and he presents a strong case to pick up a card in this one. Cook has been carded in three of his last five appearances against the hosts and has nine cards to his name this season - including when being carded in the FA Cup tie between the sides in March. The midfielder is averaging 1.40 fouls per 90 this season, and a continuation of that form should see him do enough to earn his place in the referee's notebook. His likely midfield partner is Tyler Adams, who is another that is overpriced in the markets, with the American picking up eight cards in 2,173 minutes this season - including the reverse fixture earlier in the season. Adams is averaging 2.20 fouls per 90 this season and is never far away from the referee's attention. Further supporting the case of the aforementioned players is that at least one of Bournemouth's starting central midfielders have been carded against City under Iraola, so I am confident that at least one will do enough to secure a profit. The 19/1 available for the pair to be carded is naturally worth a small punt given the stats behind both of them.

ASTON VILLA VS TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

At the start of the season, Aston Villa would have worried about the prospect of facing Tottenham and Manchester United in their final two games of the season, especially if they realised they'd need two positive results to keep their Champions League dreams alive. However, it's actually worked out remarkably well for the Villans, with them facing Ange Postecoglu's Tottenham side at the most opportune moment. You can forgive Spurs for having their minds elsewhere heading into this one with them sitting just 90 minutes away from ending their 17 year trophy drought. A trip to Villa Park on the eve of the Europa League Final would not have been the ideal preparation that Postecoglu had in mind, and I'm sure that will be reflected in his team selection.

Given the expectation that Tottenham will field a weakened side, I am looking to get the hosts onside in some way. Understandably, they're a short price in the win market, so have opted to try and get some value in the player props markets. Morgan Rogers has scored in both of his appearances for Villa against Spurs, and I can see him being heavily involved once again. Rogers scored the opener in his sides 4-1 defeat away at Tottenham earlier in the season, and followed that up by scoring and assisting when they knocked the North London outfit out of the FA Cup in February. He has 14 goals and 14 assists to his name this season, and has managed to grab a goal and assist in the same game on three occasions. I can see Villa running out comprehensive winners here, and expect Rogers to be involved throughout.

CHELSEA VS MANCHESTER UNITED

Both Chelsea and Manchester United have their sights set on European finals in the coming weeks, and that will undoubtedly bear some reflection on their team selection for this one. Man United's injury issues, coupled with their final being in the more immediate future will see almost an unrecognisable starting eleven from the one that is expected to start in Bilbao on Wednesday. That gives the upper hand to Chelsea who are still looking to secure Champions League football by way of a top five finish in the Premier League. The Blues are short priced favourites as a result, especially owing to their impressive record at Stamford Bridge this season - they have lost just three matches at home, and against a depleted Manchester United side, they are certainly favourites to run out victors once again.

Due to the short price available on Chelsea to win, I have looked to manufacture a better price, and am happy to take the 10/11 available on them at -1 in the Asian Handicap market. This will ensure that we get a refund should the Blues only win this by one goal, and then see a winning selection if they win by a more definite margin. Man United have lost three of their last four on the road in the Premier League, and needed a stoppage time equaliser against ten-man Bournemouth to prevent that from being four straight away league defeats.

There is every chance that Pedro Neto starts up front for Chelsea in the absence of Nicolas Jackson following the forward's dismissal at St James' Park on Sunday. It's hard to see how he won't be involved in the scoring should Chelsea decisively win this one. However, with only six goals to his name this season, I am happy to avoid him at the prices. I have therefore looked towards the Chelsea full back Marc Cucurella at 12/1 to get himself on the scoresheet. The Spaniard has also scored six goals for the Blues this season, and has managed to grab three in his last eleven starts, this makes the price on offer very appealing, and I am happy to have a small stakes punt.

CRYSTAL PALACE VS MANCHESTER CITY

All eyes will be on Wembley on Saturday afternoon as Crystal Palace and Manchester City do battle in the FA Cup Final. For the latter, it's a third consecutive appearance in the final, while this is just the third appearance in the Wembley showpiece for Crystal Palace. The Eagles look to claim the first major piece of silverware in their club's history at the third time of asking. The return of Erling Haaland in last week's draw at Southampton further strengthened Manchester City's claims with Pep Guardiola looking to secure a third FA Cup crown.

The struggles endured by Man City this season have been clear to see with their manager claiming this has been "the hardest season of his managerial career", that will give hope to Crystal Palace that they can upset the odds here. However, I feel that the pedigree of Pep Guardiola's side will be enough to guide them to another trophy. They demonstrated their efficiency in such situations when they comfortably swatted aside Nottingham Forest in the last round, and I feel they could put on a similar display here. Twelve of their last fifteen matches have seen under four goals in the match - albeit one of those occasions was against today's opponents. The Citizens have got the better of their opposition on seven of those twelve occasions and I can see a similar theme continuing here. Of the last eighteen FA Cup Finals, fifteen have seen less than four goals scored, with only four of these eighteen matches going beyond the scheduled 90 minutes. Therefore, I was happy to take the 7/4 on offer for Man City to win in 90 minutes, and there to be under 3.5 goals in the match.

Whilst Erling Haaland's claims for a goal are obvious, he did draw a blank on his return at Southampton last weekend, and is a short price to get himself on the scoresheet here. I have turned my attention to someone who managed to grab a goal when the two sides met in the Premier League last month, Nico O'Reilly. The City youngster has found himself amongst the goals since he started his run in the side, netting five goals in just 1,148 minutes. This is made more impressive with O'Reilly often lining up at left back. He has also had a hand in the goals that have guided his side to this final, scoring three goals in previous wins over Salford City and Plymouth Argyle. The 9/1 on offer for him to score here is by far the best in the market, with it being best priced 6/1 elsewhere.

STRASBOURG VS LE HAVRE

The final day of the Ligue 1 season has plenty of drama in store with relegation and places in Europe still to be decided. A game which will play a key role in both is Strasbourg against Le Havre. Liam Rosenior has impressed since taking the helm at the French side in July. He has guided them to six place going into the last day of the season, with his side clinging onto the final European space by three points. A home tie against relegation threatened Le Havre would be the ideal matchup on the face of it. However, with the visitors requiring a win if they are to secure their Ligue 1 status for another season, they present a tricky challenge. They currently occupy the relegation play-off place, but sit just one point ahead of the automatic relegation places.

Despite their impressive record in recent months, Strasbourg have struggled to stop teams from getting on the scoresheet, and I feel that could be the same here, especially with Le Havre requiring a win. Strasbourg have conceded in twelve of their sixteen Ligue 1 home games this season, winning eight of those twelve. Given the struggles of Le Havre, you would expect them to struggle in this one, but I do rate their chances of at least getting on the scoresheet. They have scored in thirteen of their sixteen away league games this season - including all of their last eleven. The last two meetings between the sides at Stade de la Meinau have seen Strasbourg win and both teams score, and I fancy this run to continue.

EVERTON VS SOUTHAMPTON

Goodison Park gets it's final farewell on Sunday lunchtime when Everton host the league's bottom side Southampton. For both of these sides there really isn't too much at stake with their relative fates already sealed weeks ago. Southampton dragged themselves to twelve points last weekend with a draw against Manchester City which ensured they will not break the Premier League record for the lowest points total, while Everton have been assured of their Premier League status for a number of months.

Simon Rusk was brought in for his second stint as interim manager at Southampton following the sacking of Ivan Juric when the club's relegation was confirmed last month. This has seen him adopt a far more rigid setup in order to get the points required to avoid any unwanted Premier League records. Due to this style, it has seen their opponents enjoy a lot of the ball, and enabled them to have a higher number of shots, this is something which I am looking to exploit for this one. While Everton aren't renowned for being an attacking force, they will certainly be fired up for what is set to be a memorable occasion for them, and given the opposition, they may smell blood. Since Rusk's appointment, Southampton have faced 93 shots across five games - facing at least 25 in three of those. Albeit, the aforementioned three matches were at home, while their two on the road have seen less. Given the motivation for the home side to put on a performance today, I feel that they could easily run up a high total of shots. While Southampton can ease the handbrake slightly now they have amassed enough points to not break the Premier League record, I still feel they'll be keen not to be on the end of a hammering. I was surprised to see William Hill offering almost double the price to the rest of the industry on the Everton shot lines, and I am looking to take advantage.

WEST HAM UNITED VS NOTTINGHAM FOREST

Despite spending almost all of the season in the Premier League's top five, Nottingham Forest have inexplicably found themselves sat outside of the Champions League spots going into the penultimate weekend of the season, after failing to win five of their last six league games. There have not been the desired levels of improvement since the appointment of Graham Potter, and in a more ordinary Premier League season, his side could be fighting for their survival. Instead, they will be looking to just obtain their best possible finishing position, and could prove a potential banana skin for Champions League chasing Nottingham Forest.

One of the main goal threats for the Hammers this season has been Tomas Soucek, the Czech international has scored in 9 of his 28 starts in the Premier League and has four in his last seven. It appears that Potter is once again getting the best out of Soucek and he could throw a spanner in the works of Nottingham Forest's European dreams. Soucek got on the scoresheet in his sides' 3-2 win in this fixture last season, and I was surprised to see the 17/4 available for him to find the back of the net here.

BRENTFORD VS FULHAM

Whilst the title race and relegation places have all been settled going into the penultimate weekend of the Premier League season, the race for the European places is still alive and well given the number of spots on offer to sides this season, with both Brentford and Fulham being embroiled in the battle for one of those spots. A London derby usually needs no extra edge, however, this one is vital to both sides in the race for European football.

Given what is on the line for both sides, I feel we could see a fiery affair and have turned my attention to the player card markets. Christian Norgaard is Brentford's most carded player this season, and I feel he's a prime candidate to add another card to his tally. He has eight cards so far this season, and is averaging 1.49 fouls per 90 this season. The Danish midfielder has been carded in three of his last five matches and against their rivals, I was surprised to see 17/5 available for him to find his way into the referee's notebook. Another player with eight Premier League cards to his name this season is Fulham's Andeas Pereira, the Brazilian looks set to start in a deeper role in this one due to the expected absence of Sasa Lukic, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't do enough to get the referee's attention. A number of Pereira's cards have come for dissent and that could easily be a factor here with the circumstances surrounding the game for these sides.

LEICESTER CITY VS IPSWICH TOWN

Following on from the Goodison Park farewell, another Premier League farewell takes place when Jamie Vardy plays his final match for Leicester City. It will be Vardy's 500th game for Leicester, and he is on the verge of notching his 200th goal. He will relish the fact that he faces fellow relegated side Ipswich Town and will see this as a great opportunity to get his landmark goal.

Throughout his Leicester career there has been a sense of inevitability about Vardy, and it certainly seems inevitable that he'll find a way to make the headlines in this one. Aside from the romance of it all, I fully expect Vardy to score in this one. He is Leicester's top scorer this season, and will be fully motivated to grab a goal in what would have ordinarily been a low-key game. There is every chance that Vardy has something special planned should he get on the scoresheet, and I am happy to take a punt on him to score and get himself a card. Whether this comes by way of celebration, or if he demonstrates some of his usual aggression, there is every chance he picks up a card as well.

ARSENAL VS NEWCASTLE UNITED

The fight for the Champions League spaces reaches a fever pitch when Arsenal and Newcastle clash at the Emirates on Sunday afternoon. Arsenal look set to play Champions League football once again, but they will be keen to ensure that they secure second place. Newcastle will be buoyed by Arsenal's recent struggles, and will have their eyes on that runners-up spot. This will be the fourth meeting between the sides this season, and the Magpies have won all three previous meetings.

There has been a slight edge to matches between these sides in recent seasons, and I feel this one will be no different. 35 cards have been dished out across the last seven meetings, and referee Simon Hooper looks sure to be busy yet again. Bruno Guimaraes has picked up three cards in his last five matches, and is averaging 1.68 fouls per 90 this season. With so much at stake, I feel that Guimaraes is sure to be fired up, and could easily find his way into the book with the number of fouls the Brazilian commits. Another in the Newcastle ranks who looks set for a card is Fabian Schar. The centre back has been carded in four of his last five appearances against Arsenal, and looks set to come up against Arsenal's second most fouled player this season in Leandro Trossard.

BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION VS LIVERPOOL

Despite failing to win their two games since being crowned Premier League Champions, Liverpool have the chance to extend their lead to fifteen points in the Monday Night Football on the South Coast at Brighton. Given the fact their crown is already secured, there is a chance that we could see further rotation from Arne Slot, and they'll have to face motivated opposition in Brighton, who are looking to keep their European football chances alive.

This is a fixture which has produced goals in the past, with fourteen of the sides' last nineteen meetings producing at least three goals - including all of the last six. There is no reason to suggest that this one will be any different, and I am looking to get goals onside in some way. I expect the home side to get on the scoresheet here, but sadly there was little value in the goalscorer markets, so I have turned my attention to the assists markets. Mats Wieffer has started the Seagulls' last four matches at right back and has assisted a goal in three of those four starts, that has taken his tally to five Premier League assists this season in just 828 minutes. I was surprised to see 13/2 on offer for him to make that four assists in five starts from right back and am happy to get involved at that price. Wieffer has also been carded in two of those four starts at full back, and has picked up six cards this season, this makes the 5/1 on offer for him to be carded look generous. I am happy to pair these two selections together and have a small play on the 31/1 available for Wieffer to assist and be carded.