UEFA World Cup Qualifying Value Bets - 24/03/25
- JN Value Betting
- Mar 23
- 3 min read
Updated: Mar 24
BEST BETS:
ENGLAND VS LATVIA:
EZRI KONSA - TO BE FOULED 2+ TIMES - 2/1 (SKY BET) - 1PT
EZRI KONSA - TO BE FOULED 3+ TIMES - 13/2 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS
POLAND VS MALTA:
POLAND - TO WIN TO NIL - 5/6 (BET VICTOR) - 1.5PTS
Qualifying for next summer's World Cup got underway on Friday evening, with those not in Nations League action bidding to book their ticket to North America. They continue their qualifying campaign on Monday evening, where the pick of the action looks to be at Wembley where Thomas Tuchel looks to make it two wins from two as his England side welcome Latvia.
ENGLAND VS LATVIA
It was a good start to the Thomas Tuchel era for England on Friday evening as they dispatched Albania with consummate ease. They didn't really have to get out of second gear, with them going through the motions against clearly inferior opponents. It will be a case of much the same on Monday evening when Latvia make the trip to Wembley, they are ranked 136 places below England in the FIFA World Rankings, and will be looking to stay in the game for as long as possible. It will be hard to learn anything from almost all of England's qualifiers with them facing lesser opposition in all but two of their matches.
Ezri Konsa impressed for England against Albania, dealing with the limited threat posed by the visitors easily, and there is a chance that he could retain his place in the starting lineup, despite Tuchel hinting that there will be changes for the visit of Latvia. Konsa has been fouled at least twice in his last five starts for his country, averaging 2.47 fouls won per 90 in this process. He has also been fouled 2+ times in seven of his last twelve for club and country, making the 2/1 on offer for him to do so here look generous. The Aston Villa defender has also been fouled 3+ times in three of his five starts for the national team, and I am happy to have a small play on the 13/2 on offer for him to make that four in six.
POLAND VS MALTA
It was a workmanlike performance from Poland on Friday evening as they won 1-0 against Lithuania to get their qualifying campaign off to the perfect start. Despite their dominance, it took them 81 minutes to get the better of the Lithuanian defence, with talisman Robert Lewandowski scoring his 85th goal for the national side. They'll hope to make it six points from a possible six as Malta visit Warsaw on Monday.
Poland have kicked their qualifying matches off in the easiest possible fashion, facing the two lowest-ranked nations at home in the first two matches, with Monday's opponents Malta being ranked 133 places lower than them in the world rankings. Malta have struggled when it comes to qualifiers for major tournaments, failing to score in 36 of their last 50. That record looks even worse when they're on the road, having only scored in 4 of their last 25 away qualifiers for either the World Cup or European Championships. Poland on the other hand have been strong at home, keeping a clean sheet in eleven of their last twenty home qualifiers. It's hard to see Malta getting the better of this strong Polish defence, and whilst it is a short price, there is plenty of juice in the 5/6 for Poland to win the match without conceding.
