UEFA World Cup Qualifying Value Bets - 21/03/25
- JN Value Betting
- Mar 20
- 4 min read
BEST BETS:
CYPRUS VS SAN MARINO:
IOANNIS PITTAS - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 6/5 (SKY BET) - 1PT
IOANNIS PITTAS - TO SCORE 2+ GOALS - 7/1 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS
ANDORRA VS LATVIA:
LATVIA - TO WIN & BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE - NO - 7/4 (SKY BET) - 1PT
ENGLAND VS ALBANIA:
ENGLAND - TO COMMIT 11+ FOULS - 10/11 (SKY BET) - 2PTS
ENGLAND - TO COMMIT 13+ FOULS - 15/8 (PADDY POWER) - 1.5PTS
ENGLAND - TO COMMIT 14+ FOULS - 7/2 (SKY BET) - 1PT
ENGLAND - TO COMMIT 15+ FOULS - 5/1 (PADDY POWER) - 0.75PTS
ENGLAND - TO COMMIT 16+ FOULS - 9/1 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS ENGLAND - TO COMMIT 17+ FOULS - 12/1 (PADDY POWER) - 0.25PTS
ROMANIA VS BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA:
ROMANIA - TO WIN - 10/11 (CORAL) - 1PT
Japan became the first team aside from the hosts to book their place at next year's World Cup, despite that, the UEFA World Cup Qualifying campaign is just getting underway. England's new era under Thomas Tuchel starts with a home tie against Albania, as they look to secure a safe passage to the tournament. Given their absence in the Nations League top flight, they kick-off their qualifying campaign ahead of the other 'heavyweights' of international football, and it will be interesting to see if Thomas Tuchel can galvanise his squad and guide them to their first international trophy in 60 years.
CYPRUS VS SAN MARINO
Despite securing two wins in their last six matches, San Marino start their qualifying campaign as the outsiders once again, as they travel to Cyprus. The Nations League has allowed them to become more competitive in their internationals, and they have secured promotion to League C in the next Nations League campaign. Cyprus pose a completely different level of competition, as experienced in June last year when Cyprus won 4-1 in a friendly between the two nations.
Cyprus will have their work cut out in this qualifying group, with both Austria and Romania the clear favourites to earn a place at next summer's tournament. However, they'll fancy their chances of getting off to a good start having comprehensively beaten San Marino in their last three meetings. One of their leading goalscorer threats in this one is Ioannis Pittas, who has scored five goals in his last eleven international appearances. He has 18 goals for club and country this season, and given San Marino will be expected to concede at least two or three in this one, Pittas should get himself on the scoresheet. I was drawn to the price of Pittas to register a brace as well, with 7/1 seeming generous with the possibility of this one getting away from the visitors.
ANDORRA VS LATVIA
Both Andorra and Latvia will have to massively defy the odds if they are to qualify for their first ever World Cup. They have both endured some turbulent form in recent times, however, Latvia should prove a cut above their opponents in this one with 31 places separating the sides in the FIFA World Rankings.
Andorra have failed to score in their last ten competitive matches, losing eight of them. Therefore, I am happy to get Latvia onside here, and was shocked to see 7/4 available on them to essentially win the match to nil. They have only conceded once in their nine meetings with Andorra, and it's easy to see Latvia getting them better of them in a low-scoring affair.
ENGLAND VS ALBANIA
The Thomas Tuchel reign gets underway at Wembley with the visit of Albania, as Tuchel looks to guide England to World Cup glory just sixteen months from now. It's hard to see that his contract with be extended beyond that, so it looks very much a plunge to try and get their hands on silverware for the first time in a generation. Albania have improved in recent years under the tutelage of Sylvinho, and he guided them to their second appearance at a major tournament when they appeared at last summer's European Championships. They have failed to beat any side ranked in the world's top ten in a competitive match, and will undoubtedly find this tough - especially, having lost their last meeting with England 5-0.
From a betting proposition it's hard to see what you will get from Tuchel's England side in its infancy, so I have turned my attention to the visitors. Under Sylvinho, Albania have averaged 14.59 fouls won per game, and the prices on that to continue here are appealing. They've been fouled 13+ times in 16 of their 22 matches under the Brazilian, with them winning eleven fouls in all but three of the 22. Given that the England players should be raring to go under a new manager, this could lead to them committing some easy fouls. Therefore, I'll take a small punt on them to commit 17+ fouls. Albania have won 17+ fouls in 6 of their 22 matches since Sylvinho's appointment - a 27% strike rate. The odds suggest this has a 7% chance, giving us a 20% edge, and I am happy to have a small punt at the prices.
ROMANIA VS BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA
1998 was the last time that Romania qualified for a World Cup, and they are certainly in with a real chance of booking their ticket to North America with their qualifying group. Their home form will be key to their chances in this campaign, and getting off to a good start against Bosnia will be crucial. The visitors will be the main threat to Romania and Austria in Group H. However, they'll need to improve their recent international form. They were the 'whipping boys' in their Nations League campaign, conceding 17 goals in their 6 matches.
I think the price for Romania to get a win here is large. They have won nine of their last twelve competitive home matches, including a 4-1 victory over Bosnia in that time. Bosnia have lost fifteen of their last twenty internationals, only registering wins over Iceland and twice over Liechtenstein in that time. It's hard to see how they will have improved enough to overturn the gulf in class between the two sides in their last meeting, and Romania rate a good price.
