UEFA Nations League Value Bets - 23/03/25

JN Value Betting
Mar 22
5 min read

BEST BETS:

GEORGIA VS ARMENIA:

UNDER 4.5 MATCH CARDS - 19/20 (UNIBET) - 1PT

UNDER 3.5 MATCH CARDS - 13/8 (CORAL) - 0.5PTS

FIRST TEAM TO BE BOOKED - NONE - 28/1 (PRICED UP) - 0.25PTS

FRANCE VS CROATIA:

OUSMANE DEMBELE - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 15/8 (BET365) - 1PT

PORTUGAL VS DENMARK:

RENATO VEIGA - TO HAVE 1+ SHOT - 1/1 (BETWAY) - 1PT

BRUNO FERNANDES - TO BE CARDED - 17/4 (UNIBET) - 1PT

SCOTLAND VS GREECE:

GRANT HANLEY - TO COMMIT 1+ FOUL - 8/11 (BETFAIR) - 1.5PTS

GRANT HANLEY - TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS - 7/2 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS

The Nations League Quarter-Finals delivered on Thursday evening, there were surprise victories for Denmark and Croatia over Portugal and France respectively, and they'll have leads to protect in the second legs. While Germany turned a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 victory that they can take back to Germany, and Spain's tie with the Netherlands hangs in the balance after a 2-2 draw between the sides.

In the Promotion/Relegation Play-Offs, Scotland managed to grind out a 1-0 win in Piraeus thanks to a Scott McTominay penalty, and they'll fancy their chances of maintaining their League A status now back home at Hampden Park. Turkey and Ukraine both look set to take their places in the top flight for the next campaign as they both recorded 3-1 victories on home soil, and they enter their respective second legs as warm favourites to progress.

GEORGIA VS ARMENIA

A comfortable 3-0 win in Yerevan on Thursday evening looks to be enough for Georgia to maintain the status in League B for the next Nations League campaign. It looked likely that they would have too much for Armenia in this two-legged tie, and that proved the case, even with the absence of star man Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. Despite winning on their two visits to Georgia previously, Armenia have their work cut out if they were to have hopes of getting back into this one, and this looks a step too far at the start of the John van't Schip era.

As touched upon already, this tie looks all but over, and I was delighted to see the appointment of referee Anthony Taylor to this one. The Englishman has seen 24 of his 35 matches this season finish with four cards or less, drastically reducing his cards per game average in the process. Whilst prices in the cards market are thin on the ground, I am keen to get stuck in on the 'unders'. The last two head-to-heads between the sides have gone under 3.5 cards, and with 13/8 on offer for that to happen once again, it seems rude not to back it to happen again. Taylor has given less than four cards in 20 of his 35 matches - even producing no cards on seven occasions, with three of those coming in his last five matches.

FRANCE VS CROATIA

France have it all to do following a toothless display in Split on Thursday, they fell to a 2-0 defeat and will have to produce a flawless display if they are to get back in this one and book their place at this summer's Finals. Given the lead that Croatia hold, it's hard to see anything other than a barrage of French attacks, with Croatia surely set to play on the break in hope of putting the tie beyond all doubt.

Despite coming up dry in the first leg, France did look threatening in spells, and I am keen to stick with my selection. Ousmane Dembele has scored in 16 of his last 21 appearances, scoring 25 goals in those matches. He had two shots on target in the first leg, and it's hard to see him not surpassing that total with the way this tie is set. The 15/8 on offer seems generous given his recent goalscoring record, and I am happy to stay loyal to this one.

PORTUGAL VS DENMARK

Another of the favourites to suffer defeat in the first leg was Portugal, who trail Denmark 1-0. They still remain favourites to progress from this one, and it will undoubtedly be hard for the Danish side to keep them at bay for another 90 minutes. Portugal were the inaugural winners of this competition in 2019, and will be looking to make the Finals for the first time since that success.

The home form of the Portuguese will possibly key for them if they are to turn this tie around, and they have won 12 of their last 13 home matches. They're averaging 20.08 shots in those 13 games, and I am keen to look for value in the shots markets. My eyes were drawn to Renato Veiga who has registered a shot in all four of his caps for the senior side, including in the first leg of this tie. He has had a shot in 14 of his last 20 starts for club and country, and I was surprised to see 1/1 available on him to continue that run here.

With this tie hanging in the balance, there is every chance that referee Slavko Vincic will be in for a busy evening. I was surprised to see the price for Bruno Fernandes to pick up a card being so high. Six of his seven yellow cards this season have been awarded for dissent, and this seems like the perfect opportunity where he could make that seven cards. Referee Slavko Vincic has given a yellow card for dissent in six of his eleven games in UEFA competitions this season, and with Fernandes not walking the proverbial 'suspension tightrope', it looks a massive price on offer.

SCOTLAND VS GREECE

It seemed as if the job for Scotland was to stay in the tie on Thursday evening so that they could have a crack at Greece at Hampden Park in the second leg. However, they went one better and managed to shut the Greek side out, and take a 1-0 lead back home. It was a surprise to see Greece not get on the scoresheet, and given their recent record, they'll still fancy their chances of getting back into this one, despite their woes in front of goal in the first leg.

A similar performance looks to be what is required for Scotland if they are to maintain their League A status for the next edition of the Nations League, and a stubborn performance from them looks to be key if they are to get the better of this Greek side. Despite minutes being limited for defender Grant Hanley at club level, he kept his place in Steve Clarke's side for the first leg, and will be favourite to do so again here given their clean sheet. Although it is a short price, the 8/11 available for Hanley to commit 1+ foul is a massive price, and is quite frankly priced incorrectly. The central defender has committed at least one foul in his last nine appearances for the national side, and in eight of his last eleven for club and country. He has even committed at least two in five of those last nine appearances - including in the first leg of this tie. With 7/2 available on him to repeat that feat, I am happy to have a small play given his prolific record.