UEFA Nations League Value Bets - 20/03/25
- JN Value Betting
- Mar 19
- 6 min read
BEST BETS:
ARMENIA VS GEORGIA:
GEORGES MIKAUTADZE - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 5/2 (BET365) - 0.5PTS
CROATIA VS FRANCE:
OUSMANE DEMBELE - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 12/5 (BET365) - 1PT
NETHERLANDS VS SPAIN:
SPAIN - DRAW NO BET - 8/11 (PRICED UP) - 1.5PTS
FABIAN RUIZ - TO HAVE 2+ SHOTS - 11/10 (SKY BET) - 1PT
FABIAN RUIZ - TO HAVE 3+ SHOTS - 7/2 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS
GREECE VS SCOTLAND:
GREECE - TO SCORE 2+ GOALS - 13/10 (WILLIAM HILL) - 1PT
EVANGELOS PAVLIDIS - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 21/10 (UNIBET) - 1PT
UKRAINE VS BELGIUM:
UKRAINE - +0.5 ASIAN HANDICAP - 21/20 (BET365) - 1PT
IVAN KALYUZHNYI - TO BE CARDED - 15/8 (CORAL) - 1PT
The final international break of the season gets underway with UEFA Nations League action, as the competition enters it's play-off phase. Each tie is played over two legs with relegation and promotion to be decided for each league. League A has also reached the Quarter-Final stage with a place in the Finals up for grabs in the summer. These will take place in Italy or Germany, depending on which side progresses from their Quarter-Final tie.
ARMENIA VS GEORGIA
Armenia start their new era under boss John van't Schip, he inherits a side who finished as runners-up in League C of the 2024/25 Nations League campaign, this has earned them a shot at promotion to League B, should they be able to overcome Georgia who finished in third place in League B. Georgia did finish just one point off second place, and that is owing to them falling to three defeats in their final four matches, after winning the first two. They come into this one as favourites to retain their status in League B, but face an unknown quantity with Armenia and their new coach.
These two sides met in the 2020 version of this competition, and Armenia got the upper hand across their two meetings in the league phase. However, Georgia have enjoyed a more successful period than their opponents since then, largely down to the introduction of fire power into their attack by way of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Georges Mikautadze. Unfortunately for them, the former is absent from the first leg due to suspension, however, they'll be able to rely on Mikautadze. I am keen to get the striker onside in this one, due to his impressive goalscoring record in recent seasons. He has scored 13 goals in 1,615 minutes this season, and has also managed to get on the scoresheet in his last two international appearances. He should almost certainly be on penalty duty as an added bonus, and against an Armenia side who have conceded in their last 27 internationals, dating back to June 2022, the 5/2 on offer for Mikautadze to score here seems generous.
CROATIA VS FRANCE
Croatia failed to get a win from their last three Nations League matches, however, they were still able to book their place as group runners-up behind Portugal. That has earned them this shot against League A2 winners France. The French suffered defeat in their first match of the campaign at home to Italy. However, they registered thirteen points from a possible fifteen in their remaining five matches, and that was enough for them to top the group. These sides met in the 2022 edition of the Nations League, and Croatia got one over their opponents in France, after holding them to a 1-1 draw in Split.
Both of these sides come into this one in different veins of form, with France definitely demonstrating stronger form, which firmly earns them their spot as favourites for this tie. They'll welcome the form of their frontline coming into this one, with both Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele in red-hot form. The latter has scored in 16 of his last 20 appearances for PSG, scoring 25 goals in that time. That makes the 12/5 available for him to score an astounding price. Should Dembele show any traces of his recent form, you'd fancy him to get on the scoresheet here.
NETHERLANDS VS SPAIN
Spain come into the Nations League Quarter-Finals as the favourites to lift the trophy in June. They'll have to overcome Ronald Koeman's Netherlands side in order to book their place at this summer's Finals. They will fancy their chances, given they're currently unbeaten in their last 21 competitive internationals - winning 19 of those. They face a Netherlands side who have only won four of their last eleven matches, and come into this one hampered by injury issues to Ryan Gravenberch, Denzel Dumfries and Nathan Ake amongst others.
Given the record of Spain coming into this one, I am keen to get them onside to maintain their good run of form. The 8/11 available for Spain in the Draw No Bet market seems too generous, despite it being short. As previously mentioned, the Spaniards are enjoying a long unbeaten run in competitive matches, and I can't see that changing against a weakened Netherlands outfit. We have the safety net of a refund should they only manage to draw this one, but I can see them coming away with a lead to take back to Spain on Sunday evening.
A key player in Spain's run to European Championship success last summer was PSG's Fabian Ruiz. He was key in their midfield, offering a threat going forward, as well as knitting together the system on Luis de la Fuente. This has seen Ruiz's attacking output increase, and the prices for him within the shots markets look to have been priced incorrectly. He is 11/10 to register 2+ shots, whilst he is 7/2 to register 3+. He has taken at least two shots in fourteen of his last seventeen shots for his national side, and is averaging 2.62 shots across his last twenty internationals. Up against a Netherlands side who have faced an average of ten shots per game across their last 25 international matches.
GREECE VS SCOTLAND
Ivan Jovanovic's arrival prior to the start of the Nations League campaign has worked wonders for Greece, who won five of their six matches, to earn the runners-up spot in League B. That has earned them a shot at earning 'top flight' status for the next campaign, however, they must overcome Scotland to do so. Seven points in their last three matches meant that Scotland had a chance at survival in League A, given their dismal start. However, they'll have their work cut out against a Greece side with momentum on their side.
I am keen to get the hosts onside in this one, given their recent good form. They have scored at least twice in nine of their last eleven competitive matches in Greece, and in six of their last seven internationals. A large amount of that threat has come from Tasos Bakasetas. However, they'll have to do without him here, as he is absent due to injury. Scotland have conceded 2+ goals in five of their last six away games, and will have to keep a potent Greek frontline quiet here, to keep themselves in the tie heading back to Hampden Park on Sunday.
Evangelos Pavlidis is likely to lead the line for Greece in this one, with him having scored 22 goals in his 3,126 minutes for club and country this season. He has managed fourteen goals in his last fourteen matches, and the 21/10 on offer for him to score in this one, seems good value.
UKRAINE VS BELGIUM
Despite being forced to play their internationals outside of Ukraine owing to the on-going conflict in their country, Ukraine have only lost one of their last eleven 'home' internationals. They welcome a Belgium side to Murcia for this play-off tie, where they'll be looking to book their place in League A for the next campaign. The 'golden generation' seems to have bypassed Belgium now, with a large amount of their squad from recent tournaments now having fallen by the wayside, and that has seen a downturn in form for them.
Although they face the disadvantage of hosting a this fixture in Spain as opposed to Ukraine, I am happy to back the 'hosts' to get a result here. As mentioned previously, they have only fallen to defeat in one of their last eleven matches where they have been the hosts, and against a Belgium side who have failed to win all of their last five home games, there seems to be juice in the 21/20 for Ukraine +0.5 in the Asian Handicap markets. This is the same as Double Chance, meaning we have a winning selection should Ukraine avoid defeat. Belgium have suffered three consecutive defeats, having not won their last five internationals. These two sides met at Euro 2024, with it finishing 0-0, which would result in a winner for us here, should there be a repeat of that stalemate.
Ivan Kalyuzhnyi has recently been introduced into the Ukraine side, and has certainly been no stranger to the referee's attention. He has committed seven fouls in the 216 minutes he has played for the national side, and has been carded eight times in his 1,974 minutes for club and country this season. Facing a Belgium side who have seen an opposing central midfielder in nine of their last fifteen matches, and that makes Kalyuzhnyi a prime candidate here.
