UEFA Europa League Value Bets - 23/01/2025
- JN Value Betting
- Jan 22
- 6 min read
BEST BETS:
BODO/GLIMT VS MACCABI TEL AVIV:
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE & OVER 2.5 GOALS - 1/1 (WILLIAM HILL) - 2PTS
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 2+ GOALS - 79/20 (PRICED UP) - 0.5PTS
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE IN BOTH HALVES - 10/1 (WILLIAM HILL) - 0.5PTS
DOR TURGEMAN - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 7/2 (BET365) - 1PT
HOFFENHEIM VS TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR:
DJED SPENCE - TO MAKE 3+ TACKLES - 7/5 (CORAL) - 1.5PTS
QARABAG VS STEAUA BUCHAREST:
JULIO ROMAO - TO BE CARDED - 7/4 (BETFAIR) - 1PT
LAZIO VS REAL SOCIEDAD:
AIHEN MUNOZ - TO BE CARDED - 4/1 (PADDY POWER) - 0.5PTS
AIHEN MUNOZ - TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS - 7/5 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS
MANCHESTER UNITED VS RANGERS:
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE - 4/5 (BETFRED) - 2PTS
HAMZA IGAMANE - TO SCORE OR ASSIST - 23/10 (PADDY POWER) - 1PT
Unlike Europe's primary club competition, the Europa League looks set to see almost all of it's 'big hitters' qualify for the knockout stages of the competition with ease. Even with Man United and Tottenham both struggling domestically, they look set to take a safe path through to the next stages of the Europa League. Whilst the jury is still out on the new format for European club football, it has undoubtedly thrown up some intriguing fixtures throughout the competition, and it has done so in the Europa League in this penultimate matchweek. The aforementioned Man United sit in 7th place and they host Rangers who occupy the final 'Last 16' place in the table. Spurs travel to Germany to face Hoffenheim, hoping to find their way into the top eight places, likely at the expense of Man United or Rangers.
BODO/GLIMT VS MACCABI TEL AVIV
Norwegian side Bodo/Glimt head into this home tie against Maccabi Tel Aviv in 13th place in the table, with 10 points from their opening six league phase matches. A point here would see them all but guarantee their progression to the knockout stages. However, they haven't featured in a competitive fixture since their last Europa League outing, owing to the fact that the Norwegian football season finished at the start of December. Israeli side Maccabi Tel Aviv travel to Norway in good form having lost just once in their last 15 matches - they sit one point outside the qualification places, so will be keen to haul themselves inside there ahead of the final matchweek next week.
One trend that is apparent for both these sides is the amount of goals that are in their matches, Bodo have seen both teams score and at least three goals in the match in eight of their last ten, while Maccabi have seen this land in all but one of their last ten matches. I was surprised to see that both sides to find the net twice was just short of 4/1 with Bodo scoring twice in nine of their ten home games (eight of the last ten for both home and away), with Maccabi scoring 2+ goals in seven of their last ten away matches (nine out of ten for both home and away matches). I expect goals to be the order of the day here, and am happy to have a small play on both teams to score in both halves, with this being 10/1.
Due to the expectation of their being goals here, I was keen to look to take advantage of any value in the goalscorer markets, I was drawn to the price of Dor Turgeman to get himself on the scoresheet, the Maccabi Tel Aviv front man has scored 13 goals in 1,726 minutes this season, which includes four goals in the Europa League. Turgeman is averaging a goal every 132 minutes and was surprised to see this priced up at 7/2.
HOFFENHEIM VS TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR
Tottenham's struggles only got deeper on Sunday when they fell to defeat at Goodison Park, the pressure has been heaped even further on boss Ange Postecoglu. However, Daniel Levy looks to have held his nerve for the time being. This could be owing to the form Tottenham have found in cup competitions, and they'll look to continue this here against a Hoffenheim side who find themselves in a similar state of disarray. Manager Christian Ilzer got his second win since taking the helm with a 3-1 victory away at Holstein Kiel, dragging his side outside of the Bundesliga relegation zone. Back-to-back victories would likely see the German side take a giant leap to progressing in the Europa League, and this could prove a season defining week for them.
Once again, the price for Djed Spence to make three tackles is the stand out within the market. Due to Spurs' injury crisis, Spence has been operating in an unfamiliar role at left back, but has taken to this quite well, despite his sides' struggles. Spence has made three tackles in six of his eight starts for Spurs this season and faces up against a Hoffenheim side who has seen the left sided defender make at least three tackles in seven of their last eleven.
QARABAG VS FCSB
Romanian Champions Steaua Bucharest have been a surprise package in the Europa League this season, finding themselves in tenth place. They've taken eleven points from their six matches thus far, and look certain to be playing in the knockout stages this season. Once Champions of Europe, FCSB are back in European competition following their bounce back to the top table of Romanian football, and they've grasped the opportunity with both hands. The same cannot be said for their opponents, Qarabag, the Azerbaijani side sit just four places from the bottom of the Europa League table and look all but certain for elimination - which can be confirmed here with anything other than a win.
Qarabag midfielder Julio Romao is certainly no stranger to a yellow card, with the Brazilian picking up 29 cards since the start of last season and due to this is usually a very short price to pick up a card. Therefore, I was surprised to see the 7/4 on offer for Romao to pick up a card in this one. He is not nursing a suspension risk (despite this not meaning much when it comes to Romao), and has already been carded on 11 occasions this season. Referee Filip Glova is in charge here, and he is averaging 5.10 cards this season, so I would be surprised to see Romao get away with a card here.
LAZIO VS REAL SOCIEDAD
Lazio sit atop the Europa League table heading into the penultimate matchweek, and are all but certainly taking their place in the Last 16. They face a Real Sociedad side in one of the ties of the round, with the Spanish side looking to get themselves into the top eight. Their away form has slipped recently, and facing off against a Lazio side who are yet to taste defeat in Europe this season, it looks to be a tough task.
Real Sociedad full back Aihen Munoz is likely to lineup on the left side of the Sociedad defence, and given the record of opposing left sided defenders against Lazio, I am keen to get the Spaniard onside when it comes to committing fouls. Munoz has committed at least two fouls in three of his four Europa League appearances this season and given he will be facing a Lazio side who has seen the opposing left sided defender carded in seven of their last fifteen matches, I am happy to take the 4/1 on offer for Munoz to be carded. He has been carded four times in just 929 minutes this season, which makes the price seem very generous.
MANCHESTER UNITED VS RANGERS
Man United host Scottish side Rangers as both sides lock horns in Europe for the first time since 2010. The previous four occasions that the sides have met in Europe have been in the Champions League. However, this time both sides have become familiar with Europe's secondary club competition. They both have had their struggles domestically in recent seasons, but look set to progress to the Last 16 of the Europa League.
Since Ruben Amorim took the reins at Old Trafford, he has only seen his side keep a clean sheet on one occasion - which was against Sean Dyche's toothless Everton side. Facing a free scoring Rangers side will not be a welcome sight, following their 3-1 defeat at the hands of Brighton at the weekend. I am keen to get involved in the goals markets here, and am happy to take the 4/5 on offer for both teams to score. Rangers have scored in their last 22 matches and in all 6 of their Europa League matches this season, and against a Manchester United side who can't seem to get to grips with Amorim's system, I feel that they'll continue that run. One of the leading goalscoring threats for Rangers comes by way of Hamza Igamane, the Moroccan forward has been involved in a goal in ten of his last fourteen appearances for the Glaswegian side and in three of his four Europa League matches (only failing to do so when playing just eight minutes away in Piraeus against Olympiakos). He has fifteen goal involvements in those fourteen appearances, and the price on offer here for him to continue this looks too large.
