UEFA Europa League Value Bets - 20/02/25
- JN Value Betting
- Feb 19
- 4 min read
BEST BETS:
ROMA VS PORTO:
GIANLUCA MANCINI - TO BE CARDED - 21/10 (BET365) - 1PT
LORENZO PELLEGRINI - TO BE CARDED - 21/10 (PADDY POWER) - 1PT
STEPHEN EUSTAQUIO - TO BE CARDED - 53/20 (LIVESCORE BET) - 1PT
BODO/GLIMT VS TWENTE:
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE & OVER 2.5 MATCH GOALS - 7/8 (BETWAY) - 1.5PTS
FCSB VS PAOK SALONIKA:
JOYSKIM DAWA - TO BE CARDED - 9/4 (SKY BET) - 1PT
VIKTORIA PLZEN VS FERENCVAROS:
VIKTORIA PLZEN - (-1) ASIAN HANDICAP - 23/20 (BET365) - 1PT
MOHAMED BEN ROMDHANE - TO BE CARDED - 4/1 (BET365) - 0.5PTS
It was a strong evening for all three Dutch sides in last Thursday's first leg ties, with them all holding a lead going into the second legs. Despite their comfortable victories, all the ties could hang in the balance given the quality of opposition they're facing. Five of the eight ties currently have at most a one-goal margin separating the two sides, and that leaves Thursday evening's fixtures set to produce fireworks.
ROMA VS PORTO
Last week's first leg between Roma and Porto was an ill-tempered affair with eleven cards being dished out (ten yellow cards and one red card). With the tie still all square, it's hard to see how this one will be any different from last week. Frenchman Francios Letexier is in charge here, and he has dished out 4.13 cards on average across the last two seasons - with him averaging 6 cards per game in UEFA Competitions this season.
There are a number of players who jump out here in the cards markets, with Gianluca Mancini, Lorenzo Pellegrini and Stephen Eustaquio all presenting value. Each of them are free from walking the proverbial 'suspension tightrope', and given the way the tie is set, I can see at least one of them finding their way into Letexier's notebook. Due to the prices of each player, we will only need one of them to be carded to record a profit. Should the game follow suit from last week, we could easily see more than one of them being carded. Mancini has been carded 17 times across the last two seasons, and with the 21/10 on offer, I am happy to have a punt at that price. His teammate Lorenzo Pellegrini was carded last week in Portugal, and that was his fifteenth card in the last two seasons. From the Porto ranks, Stephen Eustaquio presents the best value to pick up a card, he has 13 cards to his name across the last two seasons, and is the most carded player for the Portuguese side.
BODO/GLIMT VS TWENTE
As predicted last week, there were goals where Bodo/Glimt were involved, with the Norwegian Champions going down 2-1 away in the Netherlands. They'll be confident of getting the better of Twente here, given their goalscoring exploits at home. That will leave the Dutch side vulnerable, but should they get on the scoresheet, they'll be confident of progressing.
I am always keen to get goals onside when Bodo are playing, with them seeing Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Match Goals landing in ten of their last fourteen at home, with the four other occasions seeing Over 2.5 Match Goals land. They welcome a Twente side who have seen this selection land in eleven of their last fourteen on the road this season, so I am happy to get stuck in at the prices. It is likely that Bodo will manage to score at least twice here, and that would leave us needing a goal Twente, who have scored in eighteen of their twenty away matches this season.
FCSB VS PAOK SALONIKA
Much like their meeting in the League Phase of this competition, FSCB came away from Greece with a one-goal victory, they'll be looking to convert that lead at home to see them through to the Last 16 for the first time in twelve seasons. PAOK were beaten in three of their four away matches in the League Phase, and that won't fill them with confidence given that they need to get a win in Romania.
Given the way that Steaua will be protecting a lead here, I am keen to look towards the cards markets for their players, especially with referee Matej Jug averaging 5.76 cards per game this season. The one player who screams value at me is Joyskim Dawa, the centre half has been carded fourteen times this season, but is one of very few Steaua players who aren't a yellow card away from suspension, and that makes him a prime candidate here.
VIKTORIA PLZEN VS FERENCVAROS
Viktoria Plzen fell to a 1-0 defeat in Hungary last week at the hands of Ferencvaros who have utilised their home form to get them this far in the competition - they won three of their four in the League Phase prior to last week's victory, and will need to translate that into their away form in order to progress here.
I can't see Ferencvaros holding onto their lead here, travelling to a Plzen side who have won thirteen of their seventeen at home this season. Given the away form demonstrated from the Hungarian Champions this season, they are certainly vulnerable on their travels once again. Robbie Keane's men have lost seven of their nineteen away games this season, with three of those defeats coming in their four League Phase matches. With Plzen chasing the game, I am happy to take the price on them at -1 in the Asian Handicap market. This means that we'll get a refund should Plzen only manage a one-goal victory, but will see a winner if they manage at least a two-goal win.
One theme of my selections for this round of fixtures has been the likelihood of cards from players who are protecting a lead, that is no different here with Ferencvaros' Mohamed Ben Romdhane being a huge price to pick up a card in this one. The Tunisian international has been carded 14 times in just 3,145 minutes across the last two seasons, and we should be getting a price of around 9/4 here, so am willing to get involved on the 4/1 on offer.
