UEFA Europa League Value Bets - 17/04/25

JN Value Betting
Apr 15
5 min read

BEST BETS:

ATHLETIC BILBAO VS RANGERS:

VACLAV CERNY - TO HAVE 2+ SHOTS - 4/5 (BET365) - 1PT

VACLAV CERNY - TO HAVE 3+ SHOTS - 12/5 (BET365) - 0.5PTS

MOHAMED DIOMANDE - TO BE CARDED - 59/20 (LIVESCORE BET) - 1PT

LAZIO VS BODO/GLIMT:

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE - 20/23 (BETFAIR) - 1.5PTS

MANCHESTER UNITED VS LYON:

GEORGES MIKAUTADZE - TO HAVE 1+ SHOT ON TARGET - 4/5 (BETWAY) - 2PTS

Three of the four Europa League Quarter-Finals hang in the balance, with them all ending level after last week's first legs. Only Norwegian Champions Bodo/Glimt managed to get their noses in front in their tie with Lazio, and they'll be hoping to defend their two-goal lead to navigate their way to a historic European semi-final. All three British sides had to settle with honours even in their respective clashes, and they'll be hoping to keep their seasons alive by progressing into the last four.

ATHLETIC BILBAO VS RANGERS

Despite playing for almost eighty minutes with ten men, Rangers managed to keep Athletic Bilbao at bay at Ibrox last week, with the Spaniards even having a penalty saved ten minutes from time. It will need to be another monumental effort for Rangers who will be up against it against a Bilbao side who have not tasted defeat at home in three months, and currently have a 100% record at home in Europe.

Although I expect this to be a dominant performance from the hosts, I feel that there is definitely value to be had when looking at Rangers in the player props markets. Winger Vaclav Cerny has had at least two shots in 32 of his 36 starts in the league and European competition this season. He is averaging 3.48 shots across those 36 starts, and had two shots in last week's first leg. I was surprised to see 4/5 on offer for him to repeat that, despite the thought that Rangers will spend a large amount of time with their backs to the wall, they will need to attack at some stage if they are to progress, and any attacking threat should come with Cerny involved. He has had at least three shots in 23 of the aforementioned 36 starts, including seven of his eleven appearances in this competition. That makes the 12/5 on offer for him to have at least three shots here look generous.

Rangers will be boosted by the return of midfielder Mohamed Diomande following his suspension in the first leg, and he'll be key in making his presence felt in this one, to enable the Scots to grind out a result. Due to the rule of yellow cards being wiped following the completion of the Quarter-Finals in European competition, Diomande has almost a 'free' yellow card in this one, meaning that he will not serve a suspension should he be carded for the sixth time in this competition this season. He has picked up a card 12 times in 3,561 minutes this season, and with opposing Bilbao central midfielders being carded in eight of their last thirteen, this makes Diomande a prime candidate in this one.

LAZIO VS BODO/GLIMT

After topping the League Phase, Lazio were handed a more 'favourable' route throughout the knockout stages as a reward. However, they have flattered to deceive in the knockout stages thus far. They squeezed through against Czech side Viktoria Plzen in the Last 16, and would have relished having the 'easiest' draw in the Quarter-Finals against a side who had not been playing league football in four months. Bodo/Glimt have had other ideas however, charging into a 2-0 lead following last week's first leg in Norway, and will fancy their chances of keeping the Italians at bay and booking their spot in the last four of a European competition for the first time in their history.

It has been three years since Bodo/Glimt were denied by a side from Rome in the Quarter-Finals of the Europa Conference League following a victory in the first leg. However, I feel that this side is a different beast this season, and they should have enough to see themselves get across the line in Rome on this occasion. Should they get on the scoresheet here, they would leave Lazio requiring at least three goals to force extra-time. I back the Norwegian side to at least score here, with them scoring in twelve of their thirteen Europa League games this season. Lazio have also seen both teams score in 18 of their 22 home matches this season, and with Bodo also scoring in 18 of their 22 away matches, I cannot see why we are able to get 20/23 on both teams to score in this one.

Should there be any chink in the Bodo/Glimt armour, it would be their defensive record, with goals being guaranteed when they are involved. Three of the seventeen goals that they have conceded this season in this competition have come from corners, and should we see a dominant display from the hosts, I can see this being breached once more. Lazio's threat aerially comes from centre back Alessio Romagnoli, who has scored five goals this season in 2,922 minutes this season. He has won 65.42% of his aerial duels and this has resulted in the Italian getting on the scoresheet in four of his last seven appearances. I am happy to have a small play on the 16/1 for him to score here, given it is likely that Lazio will dominate large portions of the game.

MANCHESTER UNITED VS LYON

Much like Tottenham's fixture against Eintracht Frankfurt, it is very much all or nothing for Man United when they welcome Lyon to Old Trafford. Should the Red Devils fail to progress, their season will be all but over, with them set to record their worst Premier League finish in their history. Lyon continue to battle it out in Ligue 1 to book their European tour for next season with them sitting just two points off second place, and just three points ahead of seventh. They'll undoubtedly cause Man United problems in this one, and I feel that the price on the hosts is far too short to get involved in.

Due to the short price of Man United, this has manufactured some nice prices to get Lyon onside, and I am happy to dip into the player shots on target markets, and take the 4/5 on Georges Mikautadze to register a shot on target. The Georgian forward has hit the target in fourteen of his last fifteen starts, and is averaging 1.50 shots on target per 90 in those starts. His side are averaging 5.87 shots on target per game in their last 30 matches, and should they come close to this average, it's very likely that Mikautadze will be involved.