UEFA Europa League Value Bets - 13/02/25
- JN Value Betting
- Feb 12
- 4 min read
Updated: Feb 13
BEST BETS:
FENERBAHCE VS ANDERLECHT:
YOUSSEF EN-NESYRI - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 11/8 (SKY BET) - 1PT
YOUSSEF EN-NESYRI - TO SCORE A HEADER - 9/2 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS
PAOK VS FCSB:
MOHAMED MADY CAMARA - TO BE CARDED - 15/4 (BET365) - 1PT
TWENTE VS BODO/GLIMT:
SEM STEIJN - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 15/8 (BET365) - 1PT
KASPER HOGH - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 11/4 (BET365) - 1PT
SEM STEIJN & KASPER HOGH - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 10/1 (BET365) - 0.5PTS
It's the turn of Europe's secondary club competition to get their Play-Off Round underway, and once again, there are a number of ties that we are seeing repeated from the League Phase. It remains to be seen how that form stacks up, but the jeopardy surrounding some of Europe's biggest clubs such as Porto & Roma is clear to see. For one of those sides, they will not progress to the Last 16 as they meet each other in this round.
FENERBAHCE VS ANDERLECHT
Jose Mourinho's Fenerbahce are embroiled in a title race with Galatasaray in the Turkish Super Lig, despite them only losing two of their twenty-two league matches this season, they have been unable to transfer that form to the Europa League. The Turkish side only made the knockout stages by the skin of their teeth. However, there is certainly an argument to be made that this will be by design given Mourinho's track record when it comes to claiming European silverware. They face an Anderlecht side who got their business done early in this competition, however, the defeats they suffered in their last two League Phase matches have caused them to have to play this fixture.
In the final round of League Phase fixtures, I backed Fenerbahce top goalscorer Youssef En-Nesyri to get himself on the scoresheet, and the Moroccan delivered. I am keen to get him onside once again, with the strikers good form continuing. He has 20 goals in just 1,872 minutes this season, an average of a goal every 94 minutes. En-Nesyri has taken 47% of his shots this season with his head, with 11 of his 20 goals coming that way. Therefore, I am happy to take the 9/2 on offer for him to score a header in this one.
PAOK VS FCSB
One fixture within this Play-Off Round that was played in the League Phase is PAOK vs FCSB. That saw Steaua take all three points from Thessaloniki in October. This was one of a number of impressive performances that ensured the Romanian side a comfortable passage into the knockout stages, with them even having a chance of a top eight finish going into the final matchday against Manchester United. PAOK were sat on just one point after four League Phase matches, but rattled off three consecutive wins that put them into the play-offs.
Whilst it is uncertain to what parallels we can draw from the meeting between these sides in the League Phase, I am keen to get a winning selection from that fixture onside again here. PAOK have an unlikely top scorer this season in Mohamed Mady Camara, whilst he does have impressive goalscoring record by his standards, I am backing him to pick up a card here. Camara has been carded 21 times across the last two seasons, and this should be priced at around 5/2. As previously stated, he was carded in the fixture back in October, and given he isn't walking the proverbial 'suspension tightrope', I am happy to get stuck in here.
TWENTE VS BODO/GLIMT
Another side who progressed into the Play-Off Round by the skin of their teeth was FC Twente. The Dutch side picked up seven points in their last three League Phase matches to accumulate ten points and that proved enough to qualify. They face a Bodo/Glimt side who have once again impressed in European competition with the Norwegian champions just missing out on an automatic place in the Last 16 on goal difference.
There aren't too many things that remain consistent in the world of football. However, one thing you can guarantee with Bodo/Glimt is goals. They have seen 160 goals in their 47 matches this season, an average of 3.40 goals per game. Against a Twente side who have scored 28 goals in their 14 home matches this season, I can see there being goals once again. Sem Steijn is the prime candidate to find the net from a Twente perspective, their top scorer has scored 20 goals this season, already surpassing the 19 he managed last season. He is averaging a goal every 120 minutes this campaign, and I feel that the 15/8 on offer for him to get on the scoresheet here is generous. Kasper Hogh has enjoyed a successful first season as a Bodo/Glimt player, scoring 14 goals in his 1,918 minutes - an average of 137 minutes. His price to score at 11/4 seems inflated with Bodo likely to get on the board at least once here. I am happy to pair these up and have a small play on them both to score at 10/1.
