UEFA Europa League Final - Preview, Best Bets & H2H Record

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BEST BETS:

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50+ MATCH BOOKING POINTS - 5/6 (SKY BET) - 2.5PTS

60+ MATCH BOOKING POINTS - 6/4 (SKY BET) - 1PT

70+ MATCH BOOKING POINTS - 5/2 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS

RODRIGO BENTANCUR - TO BE CARDED - 47/20 (UNIBET) - 1PT

MANUEL UGARTE - TO BE CARDED - 2/1 (BET365) - 1PT

NOUSSAIR MAZRAOUI - TO BE CARDED - 6/1 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS

RODRIGO BENTANCUR & MANUEL UGARTE - TO BE CARDED - 8/1 (UNIBET) - 0.5PTS

RODRIGO BENTANCUR, MANUEL UGARTE & NOUSSAIR MAZRAOUI - TO BE CARDED - 42/1 (SKY BET) - 0.25PTS

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On paper, 16th vs 17th in the Premier League doesn't strike you as a must watch. However, when you translate that into the Europa League Final with plenty surrounding it, it's certainly one you wouldn't want to miss. Tottenham come into this one desperate to end their seventeen year trophy drought, with the promise of manager Ange Postecoglu still ringing in their ears. The Australian declared that he always wins a trophy in his second season, and despite the derisory Premier League season, he is just 90 minutes away from fulfilling that promise. For Man United, they sit just 90 minutes from winning silverware for the third straight season, which on the face of it looks very impressive. However, everything is far from impressive in Manchester, and Ruben Amorim will be hoping he can buy himself some extra time by landing European honours.

Given the inconsistency of the two sides domestically, this has been a hard one to size up. However, we have been treated to the referee appointment of Felix Zwayer - who comes with his own controversy, having been banned for six months in 2005 for accepting a bribe. He is no stranger to dishing out cards, the German has averaged 5.33 cards per game this season, rising to 6.20 in European competition. I was surprised to see the value available on the booking points lines, with 5/6 on offer for Zwayer to hit 50+ booking points - something which he has done in 21/26 games in European competition across the last three seasons (9/10 this season). I am happy to ladder this and take the prices on offer for 60+ and 70+, with this landing in 19/26 and 15/26 respectively.

Due to the likelihood of cards, I am looking to eek out some value in the player cards market, and have looked towards the most likely players to be carded in each of the teams ranks. This has drawn me to the Uruguayan pair of Rodrigo Bentancur and Manuel Ugarte. The former has been carded 13 times in 2,822 minutes this season, while Ugarte boasts a slightly better record of 15 cards in 2,892 minutes. With just over a shade of 2/1 available for Bentancur, and 2/1 available for Ugarte, I am happy to get stuck in on both, whilst pairing them up for a double at 8/1. The two sides have met three times across this season, twice in the Premier League and once in the Carabao Cup, this has allowed me to analyse any trends across those matches and I can see that Noussair Mazraoui has been carded in two of the three meetings between the sides - committing eight fouls in the process (3, 3, 2). I was surprised to see 6/1 available on him to pick up a card, especially when he is likely to be facing Destiny Udogie who is averaging 1.70 fouls won per 90 this season. I have had a very small play on the three aforementioned players to be carded just in case the occasion gets the better of them and the referee.

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HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD

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LAST 5 MATCHES:

16/02/2025 - TOTTENHAM 1-0 Man United (Premier League)

19/12/2024 - TOTTENHAM 4-3 Man United (EFL Cup)

29/09/2024 - Man United 0-3 TOTTENHAM (Premier League)

14/01/2024 - Man United 2-2 Tottenham (Premier League)

19/08/2023 - TOTTENHAM 2-0 Man United (Premier League)

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