UEFA Europa Conference League Final - Preview, Best Bets & H2H Record
- JN Value Betting
- May 26
- 3 min read
Updated: May 28
BEST BETS:
CEDRIC BAKAMBU - TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS - 5/4 (UNIBET) - 1PT
ISCO - TO BE CARDED - 29/10 (BET VICTOR) - 1PT
FRAN VIEITES - TO BE FOULED 1+ TIME - 13/8 (SKY BET) - 1PT
ADRIAN - TO BE FOULED 1+ TIME - 3/1 (SKY BET) - 1PT
FILIP JORGENSEN - TO BE FOULED 1+ TIME - 4/1 (SKY BET) - 1PT
EACH GOALKEEPER TO BE FOULED 1+ TIME - 33/1 (PADDY POWER) - 0.25PTS
Both Real Betis and Chelsea have secured their European fate for next season already heading into the Conference League Final, meaning that the usual prize of a place in the Europa League for the next campaign is irrelevant for both sides. That being said, the prize of a major European trophy is still on the line with Chelsea looking to become the first side in history to claim all three of the trophies on offer. Real Betis on the other hand have never won a major European honour, so will be looking to claim the first in the Club's 117 year history.
These have been the two stand-out sides in the knockout stages this season, with Chelsea losing just two of their fourteen matches - both being second legs where they have held a commanding lead from the first leg. Real Betis managed to get the better of Fiorentina in the Semi-Finals, denying the side from Florence a third straight final in this competition. Betis did only finish fifteenth in the League Phase, however, they have not looked back since, comfortably navigating the knockout stages. Chelsea did have the luxury of one round less, owing to their first placed finish in the standings during the League Phase.
A similar theme follows when it comes to finals, as I typically look to find an edge in the fouls/cards markets. This one is no different, especially with a Spanish side contesting the final. We have a strong referee appointment in Bosnian Irfan Peljto, who is averaging 4.80 cards per game this season. I was immediately drawn to the price of Betis forward Cedric Bakambu to commit 2+ fouls. The Congolese striker does typically get subbed off around the hour mark, which adds an element of risk to this selection. However, he is averaged 2.72 fouls committed per 90 this season. Should he play just an hour here, I feel that he could still do the job required of him. The 5/4 available is a massive price given the 4/11 best price elsewhere.
Real Betis captain Isco will be looking to lead his side to a first European honour, with him having the perfect pedigree to do so, having won five Champions League crowns in his time with Real Madrid. He has picked up 18 cards across the last two seasons, and I feel the 29/10 for him to be carded in this one is a generous price. In what should be a fiery affair, we need to look no further than the Betis captain, he is averaging 1.56 fouls per 90 this season, and should he continue that form, I feel he'll do enough to get the referee's attention.
Another angle which I like to explore in a European final is the chance of goalkeepers being fouled. Typically when attempting to run down the clock, goalkeepers will draw a foul from an opposition attacker to relieve pressure, and I am happy to have a small play on the 33/1 on offer for both keepers to be fouled. This was a winning selection in last season's final, with a goalkeeper being fouled in five of the last nine European finals. Betis stopper Fran Vieites was fouled in both legs of the Semi-Final against Fiorentina, so gives us a chance of having a runner late into the game.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
01/11/2005 - REAL BETIS 1-0 Chelsea (Champions League)
19/10/2005 - CHELSEA 4-0 Real Betis (Champions League)
