UEFA Champions League Value Bets - 29/01/2025
- JN Value Betting
- Jan 28, 2025
- 6 min read
Updated: Jan 29, 2025
BEST BETS:
BAYER LEVERKUSEN VS SPARTA PRAGUE:
PATRICK SCHICK - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 4/5 (BET365) - 2.5PTS
PATRICK SCHICK - TO SCORE 2+ GOALS - 10/3 (BET365) - 1PT
PATRICK SCHICK - TO SCORE A HAT-TRICK - 14/1 (BET365) - 0.5PTS
BAYERN MUNICH VS SLOVAN BRATISLAVA:
MARKO TOLIC - TO BE CARDED - 5/1 (PADDY POWER) - 0.5PTS
JUVENTUS VS BENFICA:
DRAW - 12/5 (BETFRED) - 1PT
LILLE VS FEYENOORD:
SANTIAGO GIMENEZ - TO HAVE 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET - 12/5 (PRICED UP) - 1PT
SALZBURG VS ATLETICO MADRID:
MOUSSA KOUNFOLO YEO - TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS - 8/11 (BET VICTOR) - 2PTS
MOUSSA KOUNFOLO YEO - TO COMMIT 3+ FOULS - 11/5 (BET VICTOR) - 1PT
STUTTGART VS PSG:
UNDER 7.5 MATCH CORNERS - 13/5 (BETFAIR) - 1.5PTS
UNDER 6.5 MATCH CORNERS - 9/2 (BETFAIR) - 1PT
UNDER 5.5 MATCH CORNERS - 8/1 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS
UNDER 4.5 MATCH CORNERS - 16/1 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS
A total of 25 teams must fit into the 22 spaces that remain in the Champions League knockout stages following the inaugural League Phase of Europe's premier club competition. With the final set of matches all kicking off concurrently, we're in for a rollercoaster ride, right? Probably not, is the answer. Whilst there are plenty of places up for grabs, coupled with the additional prize money, there are a number of matches which can be viewed as a 'dead rubber'. Nevertheless, there are some intriguing ties that will undoubtedly provide a level of entertainment that the traditional group stage format wouldn't have offered.
BAYER LEVERKUSEN VS SPARTA PRAGUE
A relatively straightforward evening awaits Bayer Leverkusen as already eliminated Sparta Prague visit the BayArena. Leverkusen are all but guaranteed a top eight spot should they win here, given their superior goal difference over the chasing pack. A match against Sparta Prague looks the perfect opportunity to put this beyond all doubt with a comprehensive victory, that will only improve their goal difference.
I was drawn to the price of Czech striker Patrick Schick getting himself on the scoresheet. Schick, who started his career at opponents Sparta, has scored 17 goals in just 1,198 minutes this season - averaging a goal every 70 minutes. Facing a Sparta Prague side who have conceded 18 goals across their last 5 Champions League matches, I would be surprised to see the prolific striker fail to get involved in the goalscoring. I am keen to have a small play on Schick to score both 2+ and 3+ goals as well, with these being priced at 10/3 and 14/1 respectively. Schick has managed at least 2 goals in 4 of his 13 starts this season, and has converted 2 of those into hat-tricks.
BAYERN MUNICH VS SLOVAN BRATISLAVA
Bayern Munich face the easiest task of the evening on paper, facing Slovan Bratislava who have lost all of their seven League Phase matches, conceding 24 goals in the process. However, they look set to remain outside of the top eight spaces, even with a thumping of Slovan here. Bayern will require at least four of the ten sides immediately above them to fail to win, with three of those even able to draw, stopping Bayern gaining automatic qualification to the Last 16.
In what looks an impossible task for Slovan, I am keen to get one of their players onside to be carded. Midfielder Marko Tolic has been carded seven times in the Champions League this season - albeit, Slovan's campaign did get underway back at the start of July. Given the record of Tolic finding his way into the referee's notebook, this should be priced around 2/1, so am happy to have a small punt on the 5/1 on offer. Due to his side already being eliminated, there is no risk of Tolic picking up a suspension. I have kept the stakes low here as this game is likely to be a one-sided affair, and sometimes referee's can be drawn into keeping their cards in their pockets. That being said, referee Joao Pinheiro is averaging 4.37 cards per game in European competitions across the last two seasons.
JUVENTUS VS BENFICA
Both Juventus and Benfica enter this one very likely to be facing a play-off game to progress to the Last 16. Juventus would require nine of the eleven clubs above them to fail to win in order to make it into the automatic qualification spots, which leaves it as an almost impossible task, whereas Benfica require a draw to qualify for the knockout stages - and could even still progress with a defeat in Turin, with a number of results needing to go against them to eliminate them.
The cynics amongst us will see that this could easily end in a draw, given the state of affairs these sides find themselves in. This is further supported with 'draw specialists' Juventus being involved. The Old Lady have drawn 16 of their 31 matches this season. Given the scenarios that surround these two sides, and the record of Juventus this season, I am keen to get the draw onside at 12/5. It is quite likely that both sides will not 'throw caution to the wind' in search of a goal, should their fate already be sealed with the draw.
LILLE VS FEYENOORD
In one of the more intriguing ties of the evening, Lille take on Feyenoord, with both sides having already qualified for the knockout stages. However, a win would give each of them a good chance of making it into the top eight spots. This should prove to be an open game, and a draw almost looks out of the question.
Given the likelihood of goals in this one, the prices in the goalscorer markets are not as appealing as I'd hoped. However, I am happy to take a punt on a winner from last week, with Santiago Gimenez to have 2+ shots on target. The transfer rumblings still surround the Mexican striker, with a move to AC Milan still up in the air. However, it looks likely that this will not be settled prior to this one, and Gimenez looks as if he'll play. He has had at least two shots on target in 10 of his last 14 starts, with this landing in 7 of his last 8. He is Feyenoord's main goal threat, and is averaging 1.90 shots on target per 90, making the 12/5 on offer for him to have at least two here appealing.
SALZBURG VS ATLETICO MADRID
Salzburg get a taste of Madrid once again in the Champions League, this time hosting Atletico. The Austrian side's fate has already been sealed having lost six of their seven League Phase matches. A win for Atletico will see them claim a top eight space, and a ticket straight into the Last 16. However, there is still a chance of them doing so even with a draw here. Given their inferior opposition, it's likely that Atletico will be keen to get the job done with a win in Austria.
The gulf in class between the two sides is evident here, and once again I am keen to look towards Salzburg's Moussa Kounfolo Yeo when it comes to committing fouls. The Malian has committed at least two fouls in 11 of his 14 starts this season, and up against an Atletico Madrid side who have seen the right-sided midfielder commit at least two fouls in nine of their last thirteen, I am keen to back Yeo to continue his run. The price on offer for Yeo to commit 3+ fouls is also appealing, owing to the fact that the opposing right-sided midfielder has committed at least three fouls in eight of the last thirteen against Atletico - including all of their last five.
STUTTGART VS PSG
Stuttgart and PSG both come into this one knowing that a draw will be enough for both sides to progress into the knockout stages. Now there is every chance that both of these sides could just shake hands and call it a draw from the outset, but we all know that will not happen, don't we?
In previous fixtures that have posed a similar scenario to this one, I have noticed that the number of corners are greatly reduced, given the motives of both teams not being scoring goals. Therefore, I am happy to delve into the corner markets here. PSG have had seven or less corners in 9 of their 28 matches this season, whilst six of Stuttgart's matches have gone under that total this season - with four of those going under six. There is every chance that both sides just take their chance here and play it out in a normal manner. However, I can see that should this be a draw heading into the final 20 minutes, there will certainly be an aspect of them just 'playing it out' until the end.
