UEFA Champions League Value Bets - 21/01/2025
- JN Value Betting
- Jan 20
- 4 min read
BEST BETS:
ATLETICO MADRID VS BAYER LEVERKUSEN:
PATRICK SCHICK - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 14/5 (UNIBET) - 1PT
BENFICA VS BARCELONA:
LEANDRO BARREIRO - TO BE CARDED - 24/5 (LIVESCORE BET) - 1PT
CLUB BRUGGE VS JUVENTUS:
WESTON MCKENNIE - TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS - 11/4 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS
CRVENA ZVEZDA VS PSV:
CRVENA ZVEZDA - TO SCORE 2+ GOALS - 29/20 (WILLIAM HILL) - 2PTS
CRVENA ZVEZDA - DOUBLE CHANCE - 6/5 (SKY BET) - 1PT
CRVENA ZVEZDA - TO WIN THE MATCH - 7/2 (LIVESCORE BET) - 0.5PTS
We're into unchartered territory when it comes to the Champions League this season, with the new format meaning we have games taking place in January and February. It is firmly down to the business end of the league phase now, with the standings really starting to take shape. Whilst we're still facing the unknown as to whether this will add to the excitement within the competition, it has certainly been good to see the 'best' teams facing off against each other at this stage of the competition.
Tuesday night sees table toppers Liverpool host Lille, with both sides firmly setting their sights on the knockout stages of the competition. Lille visit Anfield on the back of a 21 game unbeaten run, which has included victories over both Real and Atletico Madrid. While Aston Villa will look to secure their passage into the Last 16 with a victory away at Monaco.
ATLETICO MADRID VS BAYER LEVERKUSEN
Prior to this weekend, both Atletico Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen were enjoying winning runs, with the former boasting a fifteen game winning run, while Bayer Leverkusen had won ten in a row. However, Atletico Madrid fell to a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Leganes, while Leverkusen kept up their winning run with a comfortable victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach. Both sides look almost certain to progress to the knockout stages of this competition, but will hope that they can keep their good form going here.
One key to the Bayer Leverkusen winning run has been Czech striker Patrick Schick, he has scored in eight of his last nine starts - scoring fifteen goals in that time. I was surprised to see the price on Schick to find the net here was as high as 14/5. 16 goals in his 1,089 minutes across all competitions this season gives me the confidence that he can make a mockery of the odds on offer here.
BENFICA VS BARCELONA
Since falling to defeat on matchday one in the Champions League, Barcelona have been perfect ever since, this has them sitting in second place in the table, with qualification to the Last 16 looking very likely. They travel to a Benfica side who will need to pick something up here or in their next Champions League fixture away at Juventus in order to guarantee their progression to the knockout stages.
Luxembourg midfielder Leandro Barreiro enjoyed a hat-trick on Friday evening when Benfica put Famalicao to the sword in the league. The should do enough to earn him a starting place for this one, with minutes having been few and far between in this competition in previous matches. I was drawn to the price on Barreiro to pick up a card, with him having been carded in three of his four appearances that have seen him play 90 minutes. He has also been carded twelve times in 3,639 minutes across the last two seasons, and I was surprised to see him priced up at 24/5 for a card here.
CLUB BRUGGE VS JUVENTUS
Belgian Champions Club Brugge have enjoyed a steady Champions League campaign with them sitting on ten points from their six matches so far. They, alongside their opponents Juventus here will need further points to secure their progression from the league phase and both will be keen to get the job done here.
Given the situation of both of these sides, I can see this being a hotly contested match, that has drawn me to look towards the fouls markets, with French referee Benoit Bastien being in charge here - Bastien has averaged 23.64 fouls awarded per match this season. Owing to injuries, American international Weston McKennie has been deployed on each side of the Juventus defence in recent weeks, and this has seen him commit a larger number of fouls. He committed 4 fouls against AC Milan on Saturday when playing at right back, and should he lineup here again, I'd back him to continue this trend. The opposing right-sided defender has committed at least two fouls in three of the last six matches for Club Brugge. I would be happy to take the 11/4 on offer for most full backs or central midfielders in the fouls markets, so was surprised to see someone like McKennie being priced up at that, with it being as short as 8/5 elsewhere.
CRVENA ZVEZDA VS PSV
PSV face the daunting task of travelling away to Serbia to face Crvena Zvezda (Red Star Belgrade), they sit just inside the qualification places as we enter the penultimate matchweek. Their opponents' chances of qualification look slim with them only having three points from their opening six matches - despite their form picking up recently.
The difficulties that many sides have faced when travelling to Belgrade have been clear to see in recent years, with Red Star claiming the scalps of Liverpool, Olympiakos and Stuttgart in recent times. The hostile atmosphere can prove to much for sides, and given the recent patchy away form of PSV, I fancy them to struggle here. The Dutch Champions have lost their last three on the road, and there are certainly easier places to visit when looking to regain the winning thread. Crvena Zvezda have scored at least twice in 13 of
their 14 home matches this season, and with their opponents failing to win in five of their last seven on the road, I am happy to look to take advantage of the prices for the hosts. PSV are winless in their four Champions League away matches this season, and Red Star have won five straight at home - including a 5-1 victory over Stuttgart in their last Champions League home game. The Serbian side also managed to score twice against an in-form Barcelona, so am confident they can do so here against a wary PSV side.
