UEFA Champions League Value Bets - 19/02/25
- JN Value Betting
- Feb 18
- 3 min read
BEST BETS:
BORUSSIA DORTMUND VS SPORTING CP:
CONRAD HARDER - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 14/5 (PRICED UP) - 1PT
PSG VS BREST:
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE - 1/1 (BETFRED) - 1.5PTS
REAL MADRID VS MANCHESTER CITY:
JUDE BELLINGHAM - TO BE FOULED 2+ TIMES - 1/1 (BETFAIR) - 1PT
JUDE BELLINGHAM - TO BE FOULED 3+ TIMES - 3/1 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS
Unlike Tuesday night's Champions League action, two of the four ties on Wednesday evening appear all but over, with both Borussia Dortmund and PSG recording 3-0 victories away from home last week, with them protecting a three-goal lead on home turf on Wednesday evening. The other two ties do hang in the balance, with both PSV and Manchester City chasing down a deficit of just one goal. Much like last week, these ties look set to bring the goals once more.
BORUSSIA DORTMUND VS SPORTING CP
A three-goal lead makes last week's first leg look one-way traffic. However, this one was far from that. The German outfit were certainly the more clinical of the two sides, and will be looking to put this tie beyond all doubt early on at Signal Iduna Park.
Given the way that the tie is set, Sporting will have to make their mark early in this one, and goals look on the cards once again. The obvious answer to goals in the Sporting ranks is Viktor Gyokeres, with the Swedish striker scoring 34 goals this season. However, I am looking to another Scandinavian in the market, the Dane Conrad Harder - he was forced off the bench in just the 14th minute on Friday evening in Sporting's 2-2 draw with Arouca, and got on the scoresheet just three minutes later, that took his tally to 17 goals across just 2,767 minutes in the last two seasons. He has managed three goals in his last five appearances, and is averaging a goal every 145 minutes across the last two campaigns. I can see Sporting having a large number of shots here as they chase the match, and Harder is averaging 4.18 shots per 90 this season so I can see him being at the heart of the action. I was drawn to the 14/5 on offer for him to get on the scoresheet once again here.
PSG VS BREST
Much like the first leg tie between Sporting and Borussia Dortmund, Brest were on the end of a 3-0 home defeat despite being good value for at least keeping themselves in the tie. The French outfit hit the woodwork on a number of occasions last Tuesday, but were on the end of another defeat to PSG. Ousmane Dembele continued his red-hot form putting Brest to the sword with a brace - following on from Vitinha's penalty.
As mentioned previously, Brest were very unfortunate not to get on the scoresheet last week, and I can't see them going another 90 minutes without registering a goal, so am happy to get Both Teams to Score onside once again. This was a frustrating losing selection last week, but given the confidence behind this selection, I will stick to my guns here. Both Teams to Score has landed in six of the last seven head-to-head matches, with it failing to land last week despite the 1.18xG racked up by Brest. This has also landed in six of the last seven matches at the Parc des Princes.
REAL MADRID VS MANCHESTER CITY
Manchester City snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the first leg last week, seeing two goals from Real Madrid in the final eight minutes turn a 2-1 lead into a 3-2 deficit. They will however be buoyed by their 4-0 win over Newcastle at the weekend, and will hope to turn the tables on the current holders of this competition. Real are experts in situations such as this, and it's unlikely that they'll let a first leg lead slip, especially at the Santiago Bernabeu.
Despite the record of Madrid in these situations, they are a very short price given the level of opposition, and I am happy to look elsewhere in the markets. Given the way the tie is currently set, there is a chance that Real Madrid will play on the counter attack, and I am happy to once again back Jude Bellingham to be fouled at least twice. This was somehow a losing selection last week, when referee Clement Turpin failed to give a clear foul on Bellingham, barring any referee misdemeanours, this one should land here. Bellingham has been fouled twice in seventeen of his last twenty starts, and prior to the first leg, this had landed in his last thirteen starts. He has also been fouled three or more times in nine of those twenty starts, so am happy to have a small punt on the 3/1 on offer for that.
