UEFA Champions League Value Bets - 16/04/25
- JN Value Betting
- Apr 14
- 3 min read
BEST BETS:
INTER MILAN VS BAYERN MUNICH:
RAPHAEL GUERREIRO - TO HAVE 2+ SHOTS - 13/8 (BETWAY) - 1PT
RAPHAEL GUERREIRO - TO HAVE 1+ SHOT ON TARGET - 39/20 (UNIBET) - 1PT
RAPHAEL GUERREIRO - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 15/2 (PRICED UP) - 0.25PTS
REAL MADRID VS ARSENAL:
RED CARD IN THE MATCH - 5/1 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS
Having something to hold onto going into the second leg at the Santiago Bernabeu was the aim from last week's first leg against Real Madrid for Arsenal, they'd have never have believed they'd be holding a three-goal advantage going into this week's second leg. If there is any side that could harbour hopes of overturning a three-goal deficit in a Champions League tie, that is Real Madrid. The reigning champions will have to call on all of their Champions League might if they are to keep their hopes alive of retaining their crown. Italian Champions Inter Milan hold a 2-1 lead going back to the San Siro thanks to a clinical display in the Allianz Arena last week. They'll almost certainly face a barrage from Bayern Munich, however, this is likely to play into the hands of Simone Inzaghi's side, who look to make the last four of this competition for the second time in three seasons.
INTER MILAN VS BAYERN MUNICH
Having only conceded two goals in the Champions League prior to last week's first leg, it was always going to be a difficult task for Bayern Munich to build a commanding lead against Inter Milan. However, they will still be reeling from how they were able to come out of it trailing in the tie. It was another clinical performance from Inter Milan who have progressed this far in the tournament based on their impressive defensive record. Should they manage to complete the job here, they'll likely face the challenge of current tournament favourites Barcelona, and they'll have to call upon all of their defensive ability in order to stop the resurgent Spaniards.
One major absentee for Bayern Munich in recent weeks has been Jamal Musiala, the young playmaker tore his hamstring in their recent Bundesliga victory over Augsburg, and that has led to the versatile Raphael Guerreiro being utilised in attacking midfield. I feel that the market has missed the fact that Guerreiro is likely to start in attacking midfield, with him being priced up as if he was occupying his usual defensive role. Guerreiro has played in attacking midfield on three occasions in recent weeks bagging three goals across those matches. The Portuguese man has had two shots in all three of those starts, with at least one of those being on target. He also bagged a goal in Der Klassiker on Saturday off the bench, and that should ensure that he is utilised further forward once again. It's quite likely that Inter Milan will setup defensively much like the first leg, and that could lead to a large number of attempts from Bayern, and Guerreiro should be amongst these.
REAL MADRID VS ARSENAL
It looks almost mission impossible for Real Madrid as they look to overturn a three-goal deficit from last week's first leg against Arsenal. Whilst there have been many famous European nights for the reigning Kings of Europe, they aren't used to having to turnaround a deficit of this margin. You'd feel as if a goal from Arsenal will all but kill off the tie, leaving Madrid needing four goals. However, any signs of a Real Madrid comeback could leave Arsenal in free fall.
Emotions are sure to be running high in this one, with so much on the line for both sides, this should lead to a busy evening for referee Francois Letexier. The Frenchman is no stranger to a card, averaging 4.36 cards per game this season. He has given a red card in four of his eight European ties, and has handed out nine in his twenty-five matches in total this season. I was surprised to see that 5/1 was available for their to be a red card awarded here. Both sides has received five red cards this season, and they are certainly capable of letting their emotions get the better of them. I am happy to have a small play on this run continuing, especially given that their was a red card when the two sides met in North London last week.
