UEFA Champions League Value Bets - 15/04/25
- JN Value Betting
- Apr 14
- 2 min read
BEST BETS:
BORUSSIA DORTMUND VS BARCELONA:
UNDER 3.5 MATCH CARDS - 21/20 (BETWAY) - 1PT
UNDER 2.5 MATCH CARDS - 27/10 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS
UNDER 1.5 MATCH CARDS - 7/1 (BETFAIR) - 0.25PTS
UNDER 0.5 MATCH CARDS - 30/1 (BETFAIR) - 0.25PTS
Despite his record in European competition, Unai Emery was unable to stop his old side PSG from accumulating a two-goal lead to take to Villa Park on Tuesday evening with the Parisians scoring in stoppage time to make it 3-1 at the Parc des Princes on Wednesday. It does look unlikely that Villa will be able to get the better of this resurgent PSG side who they'll almost certainly have to shutout if they are to overturn the deficit. One side who will not be overturning their first leg deficit is Borussia Dortmund, who find themselves 4-0 down following last week's first leg in Barcelona. Even the power of the 'Yellow Wall' at Signal Iduna Park looks to lack the miracle that Dortmund require if they are to make the last four for a second consecutive season.
BORUSSIA DORTMUND VS BARCELONA
Coming into the Quarter-Finals Barcelona were installed as the bookies' favourites to take the Champions League crown next month, and they showed us all why they have that favourites tag as they dismantled Borussia Dortmund in the first leg. They look set to land the La Liga title, and are still on for a treble, with them already booking their place in the Copa del Rey Final. It's been a struggle for last season's runners-up Dortmund, with them sitting in eighth position in the Bundesliga table, and having been dumped out of the DFB Pokal by Wolfsburg back in October.
Given the fact that this tie looks all but over, I am keen to exploit some of the prices on offer in the cards markets. Italian referee Maurizio Mariani has been allocated this one, and he has given under four cards in 15 of his 31 games this season - including when awarding just one card when taking charge of PSG's first leg against Aston Villa last week. The hosts have seen ten of their last sixteen matches go under 3.5 cards, while Barcelona have seen this land in eight of their last sixteen - this includes last week's first leg when there were two cards. The most recent matches for these sides have had a lack of cards as well with under four cards clicking in the last four for Dortmund and the last three for Barca. I am happy to ladder these selections, ensuring we register a profit should there be under four cards, and then capitalising should there be under three, two and no cards awarded at all. Half of Dortmund's last sixteen have seen less than three cards, with Barcelona seeing this land in six of their last sixteen. It's hard to see this one being played in a fiery manner given the first leg score, and I am confident that we should see a lack of cards awarded.
