UEFA Champions League Value Bets - 11/02/25
- JN Value Betting
- Feb 10
- 4 min read
Updated: Feb 11
BEST BETS:
BREST VS PSG:
OUSMANE DEMBELE - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 1/1 (PADDY POWER) - 1PT
OUSMANE DEMBELE - TO SCORE 2+ GOALS - 6/1 (PADDY POWER) - 0.5PTS
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE & OVER 2.5 GOALS - 11/10 (SKY BET) - 1.5PTS
JUVENTUS VS PSV:
RANDAL KOLO MUANI - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 15/8 (PADDY POWER) - 1PT
MANCHESTER CITY VS REAL MADRID:
RODRYGO - TO HAVE 2+ SHOTS - 4/5 (BETWAY) - 2.5PTS
RODRYGO - TO HAVE 3+ SHOTS - 12/5 (BETWAY) - 1PT
JUDE BELLINGHAM - TO BE FOULED 2+ TIMES - 10/11 (BETFAIR) - 2PTS
RODRYGO - TO HAVE 3+ SHOTS & JUDE BELLINGHAM TO BE FOULED 2+ TIMES (BET BUILDER) - 4.67/1 (BETFAIR) - 1PT
The newly introduced Champions League Play-Off round has thrown up some intriguing ties, with the customary Manchester City and Real Madrid matchup taking place before we even reach the Last 16, meaning that one of Europe's powerhouses will have exited the competition before the business end.
BREST VS PSG
Brest have defied all odds and reach the knockout stages of the Champions League in their first year in the competition. Their reward for that feat is a tie against fellow Ligue 1 side PSG. They would have hardly believed their luck that they could face a side who have convincingly beaten them twice already this season, given the chances of them facing another side being much higher. PSG have hit a rich vein of form, being unbeaten in their last sixteen matches, and winning thirteen of their last fourteen.
One key to the recent form of PSG has been Ousmane Dembele, the Frenchman has started to step into the shoes of Kylian Mbappe - a void which was yet to be filled since his departure in the summer. Dembele has scored in nine of his last ten appearances, this has included him scoring sixteen goals in that time. He has managed three braces and two hat-tricks in his last nine matches, with one of those hat-tricks coming against Brest. I was surprised to see the even money on offer for Dembele to get on the scoresheet here, given that PSG have scored eighteen goals in their last six matches against Brest.
Despite this being a one-sided fixture, it has produced a large number of goals in recent times. The last six head-to-heads have seen both teams score with over 2.5 goals. Although there are typically not a large number of goals in first leg ties, I was still drawn to that selection here. PSG have conceded in eight of their last nine matches, with them only keeping a clean sheet against third tier side Le Mans.
JUVENTUS VS PSV
Another fixture that is being repeated within the Play-Off round is Juventus against PSV. These two sides met in the League Phase back in September, with Juventus running out 3-1 winners. They've experienced a turbulent campaign under Thiago Motta, with a large number of draws diluting what looked a promising season. They have lost three of their last nine matches, having gone unbeaten up to that stage. They'll be desperate to take a lead into the second leg with them facing a PSV side in form, who have not tasted defeat at home this season.
Juventus top scorer Dusan Vlahovic has been dropped to the bench in recent weeks following the arrival of Randal Kolo Muani on loan from PSG. Thiago Motta's decision seems to have been vindicated with Kolo Muani scoring in all three of his appearances for the Old Lady. He has scored five goals in those three appearances, taking his total to eighteen goals across his 2,950 minutes in the last two seasons. Despite their recent good form, PSV have been leaking goals, with them conceding nineteen goals in their last nine matches. Therefore, I am happy to get stuck in on the 15/8 on offer for Kolo Muani to continue his goalscoring form.
MANCHESTER CITY VS REAL MADRID
For the fourth consecutive season Manchester City and Real Madrid meet in the Champions League knockout stages. They'll both be hoping to ensure that they don't record their earliest exit for some time. The last two winners of this competition will undoubtedly deliver another pair of enthralling matches.
In the absence of Rodri, Manchester City are conceding an unprecedented amount of shots for a Pep Guardiola side, even Leyton Orient managed thirteen shots against them at the weekend, and City will be relieved to have progressed following a tough cup tie. Guardiola would have been frustrated having to have utilised both Kevin De Bruyne and Phil Foden from the bench to ensure that they avoided an upset, given this fixture was on the horizon. There are plenty of candidates within the Real Madrid ranks that could make Man City pay should they be allowed a similar number of shots. I was however drawn to the prices on offer for Rodrygo to register shots. The Brazilian has had at least two shots in eleven of his last twelve matches, with him recording three shots in ten of those twelve. Against a City side who have faced at least ten shots in sixteen of their last eighteen matches, I can see him making the 4/5 and 12/5 on offer for those selections look huge.
Another player that is capable of causing Man City problems is Jude Bellingham, the Englishman is living up to the potential he showed at both Birmingham and Borussia Dortmund, he capped this off by winning the Champions League last season, and will be hoping to emulate that success again this season. Given the style that Bellingham displays, his ability to draw fouls is second to none. He is averaging 2.47 fouls won per 90 this season, with him being fouled at least twice in sixteen of his last seventeen matches. The 10/11 on offer for him to be fouled at least twice here is enormous.
