UEFA Champions League Value Bets - 05/03/25

JN Value Betting
Mar 4
5 min read

BEST BETS:

BAYERN MUNICH VS BAYER LEVERKUSEN:

DAYOT UPAMECANO - TO BE CARDED - 9/2 (BET365) - 0.5PTS

PATRICK SCHICK - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 14/5 (UNIBET) - 0.5PTS

PATRICK SCHICK - TO SCORE ANYTIME & FLORIAN WIRTZ - TO ASSIST A GOAL - 15/1 (UNIBET) - 0.25PTS

BENFICA VS BARCELONA:

EVANGELOS PAVLIDIS - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 9/4 (SKY BET) - 1PT

PSG VS LIVERPOOL:

MOHAMED SALAH - TO SCORE OR ASSIST - 10/11 (PADDY POWER) - 1.5PTS

MOHAMED SALAH - TO SCORE AND ASSIST - 10/1 (PADDY POWER) - 0.5PTS

DOMINIK SZOBOSZLAI - TO HAVE 3+ SHOTS - 12/5 (CORAL) - 0.5PTS

Finishing at the top of the standings during the League Phase was meant to have been an advantage for Liverpool. However, they've ended playing in both weeks during the gap for the top eight sides, and have then ended up with a tricky tie against a red-hot PSG. The Last 16 has given us some intriguing matchups - however, there are plenty that we have seen recently. Following on from the Madrid derby, Wednesday offers us Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen. Despite having seen this fixture twice in the last three months, it taking place in the Champions League certainly adds an extra layer.

BAYERN MUNICH VS BAYER LEVERKUSEN

Xabi Alonso is yet to taste defeat against his former side Bayern Munich, despite meeting each other six times in recent seasons. Alonso's Bayer Leverkusen have proved to be the kryptonite for Bayern across the last two seasons, and Leverkusen will be hoping this continues, in order to book a place in the last eight of the Champions League for the first time since 1998. This feels like an acid test for Vincent Kompany and his Bayern tenure. Despite looking as if they'll regain the Bundesliga title from Leverkusen, that rates as their only realistic chance of silverware. Progressing from this one will add a level of substance to Kompany's CV, with the former Burnley manager lacking any major achievements.

Despite their eight point lead over Bayer in the Bundesliga, it's hard to have complete confidence that Bayern will be able to get the better of Leverkusen over two legs, and I am keen to take advantage of some generous prices about Xabi Alonso's side. Patrick Schick has been key to the recent good form of Leverkusen, scoring in twelve of his last fourteen starts. That has taken his tally to 22 goals in just 1,612 minutes this season - a goal every 73 minutes. The 14/5 on offer for the Czech striker to find the net is something to get get onside. Of the 22 goals that Schick has scored this season, 9 of them have been assisted by Leverkusen playmaker Florian Wirtz. He has 13 assists to his name this season in 2,823 minutes of football, and even assisted Schick three times in Leverkusen's win against Freiburg in December. The 15/1 on offer for Schick to score and Wirtz to assist a goal is worth a small play, with this landing in six of the last nine games that the pair have started together.

This will be the fourth meeting between the sides this season, having met twice in the league and once in the DFB Pokal. In all three of those previous meetings, Bayern centre half Dayot Upamecano has been carded. The Frenchman has eight cards to his name this season, in 2,658 minutes. An opposing centre back has been carded in nine of the last eighteen matches for Leverkusen. Despite it being a first leg, I am happy to take the 9/2 for Upamecano to pick up a card here, with him not walking the proverbial 'suspension tightrope'.

BENFICA VS BARCELONA

Benfica and Barcelona played out arguably game of the League Phase back in January when Barcelona came from 4-2 down in the final 15 minutes to win 5-4. That was enough to secure the Spanish side second place in the standings, which has given them a more favourable tie in the Last 16. However, any performance that resembles the one they offer in Portugal in January would leave them vulnerable.

Whilst this fixture is more than likely not going to live up to the League Phase tie, however, goals look likely once again. Benfica have scored 25 goals in their last nine matches at the Estadio da Luz, while Barcelona have scored 35 goals in their last ten matches. The likeliest goalscorer for the hosts looks to be Evangelos Pavlidis, the Greek striker scored a hat-trick in the League Phase meeting between the sides, and has scored eleven goals in his last seven starts. That has taken his total to 16 goals in 2,445 minutes for the campaign, since his move from AZ Alkmaar in the summer. However, 12 of those goals have come in his last 616 minutes of football. The 9/4 on offer for him to find the net for an eight straight match seems too large, and I'll happily take a punt at the price.

PSG VS LIVERPOOL

Arne Slot has conquered all before him this season, with his side odds-on to land at least two pieces of silverware in his first campaign. They topped the standings during the League Phase of this competition, however, that has rewarded them with a tie against a PSG side who are unbeaten in their last 22 matches. The Parisians dismantled fellow Ligue 1 side Brest in the last round 10-0 on aggregate. This tie against Liverpool presents a different level of opposition, and they'll need to get a positive result on home soil if they are to progress against the six-time champions of Europe.

The talismanic figure of Mohamed Salah has been key to the success of Liverpool this season, with the Egyptian being involved in a goal in his last nine matches. It's set to be a record breaking season for Salah, with him scoring 30 goals and having recorded 22 assists in his 39 appearances this campaign. This makes the 10/11 on offer for Salah to score or assist in this one an astonishing price. This has landed in 30 of his 37 starts this season. I am happy to have a small play on Salah to score and assist at 10/1, with this landing is 13 of those 37 starts.

Another key man for Slot this season has been the Hungarian Dominik Szoboszlai. He has adopted a more advanced role in recent weeks, playing at the tip of the diamond formation that the Dutchman has deployed. This has seen Szoboszlai make his presence felt even more, scoring in four of his last eight matches. He has had at least three shots in ten of his last twelve starts when occupying the more attacking role, and is averaging 2.86 shots per 90 for the season, so I am happy to take the 14/5 on offer for him to have 3+ shots, once again.