UEFA Champions League Value Bets - 04/03/25

JN Value Betting
Mar 3
6 min read

BEST BETS:

CLUB BRUGGE VS ASTON VILLA:

FERRAN JUTGLA - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 3/1 (PADDY POWER) - 0.5PTS

YOURI TIELEMANS - TO HAVE 1+ SHOT FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA - 5/6 (BETFAIR) - 1PT YOURI TIELEMANS - TO HAVE 2+ SHOTS - 14/5 (BETWAY) - 0.5PTS

BORUSSIA DORTMUND VS LILLE:

RAMY BENSEBAINI - TO BE CARDED - 51/10 (LIVESCORE BET) - 1PT

THOMAS MEUNIER - TO HAVE 1+ SHOT - 11/10 (BET365) - 1PT

PSV VS ARSENAL:

MYLES LEWIS-SKELLY - TO BE FOULED 2+ TIMES - 6/5 (SKY BET) - 1.5PTS

MYLES LEWIS-SKELLY - TO BE FOULED 3+ TIMES - 7/2 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS

REAL MADRID VS ATLETICO MADRID:

UNDER 4.5 TOTAL CARDS - 19/20 (PADDY POWER) - 1.5PTS

UNDER 3.5 TOTAL CARDS - 11/5 (PADDY POWER) - 0.5PTS

UNDER 2.5 TOTAL CARDS - 5/1 (PADDY POWER) - 0.25PTS

UNDER 1.5 TOTAL CARDS - 10/1 (PADDY POWER) - 0.25PTS

UNDER 0.5 TOTAL CARDS - 50/1 (PADDY POWER) - 0.25PTS

The Last 16 of the Champions League gets underway on Tuesday evening, where we welcome the top eight sides back into the fray. Despite somewhat of an advantage being expected for those sides who finished in the top eight spaces in the League Phase, the draw hasn't panned out that way completely, with Atletico Madrid being rewarded with a tie against cross-city rivals Real and Liverpool, who sat atop the league at it's conclusion facing a tricky tie against an in-form PSG side.

CLUB BRUGGE VS ASTON VILLA

Aston Villa managed to sneak into the top eight spots during the League Phase, with a 4-2 victory over Celtic at Villa Park on the final matchday. They did taste defeat twice on the road, however, a 1-0 defeat in Monaco and a 1-0 defeat in Belgium at the hands of Club Brugge. They travel to Brugge once again, looking to right the wrongs of their League Phase defeat. Unai Emery is very much a pragmatist when it comes to two-legged European ties, and he'll be confident of progressing from this one, should his side manage to stay in the tie here. The hosts have been very much underestimated as this tournament has progressed, with the Belgian side utilising their strong home form to book their place in the Last 16.

Villa come into this one as the favourites. However, I wouldn't be rushing to back them at the prices. Brugge lost just one of their League Phase matches at home, and followed this with a 2-1 victory over Atalanta in the Play-Off Round. They'll be keen to get a positive result in this one, given their trip to Villa Park next week. The Belgians have scored in 41 of their 44 matches this season, and I back them to continue that run here. However, the price on them to score is too short, so I have turned to the goalscorer markets. Ferran Jutgla has scored in four of his last five matches - including both legs against Atalanta in the previous round. The Spaniard has scored 9 goals in his 1,981 minutes this season, and the 3/1 on offer seems kind, given the form he is in.

Aston Villa have a Belgian of their own, with Youri Tielemans having spent fifteen years at Brugge's rivals Anderlecht. I am keen to get him onside in the shots markets here, given the likelihood that the hosts will make it tough for Villa to carve out chances. Brugge have averaged 4.28 shots faced from outside the area this season, and Tielemans has taken 21 of his 37 shots from outside the 18-yard box. The Belgian is priced at 5/6 to have a shot from outside the area, and this has landed in ten of his last fifteen matches - with it also landing in the match between these sides in the League Phase. I was surprised to see Tielemans priced at 14/5 to have 2+ shots as well, the Villa midfielder has had at least two shots in nine of his last fifteen, and that price seems too large.

BORUSSIA DORTMUND VS LILLE

Despite sitting outside the top half in the Bundesliga, Borussia Dortmund find themselves in the Last 16 of the Champions League for the sixth time in seven seasons. Last year's runners-up have endured some rotten form in domestically, but have come good when it comes to this competition this season. They welcome a Lille side to Signal Iduna Park who have claimed the scalps of both Madrid sides in the League Phase. The French side have lost four of their last nine, but had enjoyed a 21 game unbeaten run prior to that.

Referee Jose Maria Sanchez is in charge of this one, the Spaniard is aver 5.47 cards per game across the last two seasons. This has turned my attention towards the cards markets for this one, with a major standout being Ramy Bensebaini. The Algerian has already served a suspension in this competition this season, having been carded three times in the League Phase, that has taken his total to 15 cards in his 3,588 minutes across the last two campaigns, and the 51/10 on offer here is a massive price. This is next best priced at 11/4, and should be priced at around 13/5. He's not currently walking the 'suspension tightrope', and I'm happy to take the inflated price.

Thomas Meunier returns to Singal Iduna Park having spent four years at Borussia Dortmund, departing at the start of 2024. The Belgian has enjoyed a good run in the side at Lille, making the right-back spot his own. I am keen to get him onside here in the shots markets. Meunier has had a shot in thirteen of his last fourteen starts, and is averaging 1.31 shots per 90 this season. This makes the 11/10 on offer a generous price.

PSV VS ARSENAL

Arsenal head to PSV for the third season in succession, having been drawn against each other in the Group Stages of the both the Champions League and Europa League in the last two seasons. The Gunners are currently enduring goalscoring issues, with the absence of a recognised striker, they've scored just two goals in their last four matches and PSV will be keen to take an advantage to London next Wednesday. The Dutch side have tasted defeat just once at home all season, in their last home fixture against Go Ahead Eagles in the Dutch Cup. They've won their last four Champions League home matches, scoring thirteen goals in those matches.

Arsenal welcome Myles Lewis-Skelly back into the side for this one following the youngsters suspension for their match against Nottingham Forest due to his red card against West Ham. It's likely that he'll slot straight back into the starting line-up in place of Ricardo Calafiori, and the prices of Lewis-Skelly to be fouled are too high, once again. I've enjoyed success on a number of occasions backing the makeshift left back to draw fouls in recent matches, and after a brief hiatus when the prices had been lowered, they're once again at a workable price. Lewis-Skelly has been fouled at least twice in ten of his thirteen starts this season, and is averaging 2.87 fouls won per 90. He has even been fouled 3+ times in seven of those thirteen starts, and the 7/2 on offer for him to be fouled at least three times is way too large.

REAL MADRID VS ATLETICO MADRID

Atletico Madrid took advantage of Real Madrid's loss to Real Betis, to leapfrog them in the La Liga table this weekend. They will be hoping to inflict more pain on their rivals in the first leg of this Last 16 tie, with them having draw the sides' league meeting just 24 days ago. This is the tenth time that these sides have met in European competition, the most of any sides from the same country.

A cross-city rivalry should spell cards, especially with the stakes being raised in this competition. However, I am not convinced that we will see a large number of cards here. Referee Clement Turpin has been given this first leg tie, and nine of his last ten Champions League matches have gone under 4.5 cards. The Frenchman is averaging just 3.43 cards per game across the last two seasons, and has given no cards in his last two Champions League outings. He has refereed Real Madrid on five occasions in his last twenty Champions League matches, and each of those matches have seen him give less than five cards. Five of the last eight head-to-heads between the sides have gone under 4.5 cards, and with nearly even money on offer for that to happen again here, I am happy to get stuck in.

With the record of Turpin, coupled with the head-to-head record between the sides, I am happy to ladder these selections, from under 4.5 cards down to under 0.5 cards - with us profiting should the main selection land.