Tottenham vs Newcastle - Preview, Best Bets & H2H Record
- JN Value Betting
- Jan 3
- 2 min read
BEST BETS:
DJED SPENCE - OVER 2.5 TACKLES - 15/8 (CORAL) - 2PTS
DJED SPENCE - OVER 3.5 TACKLES - 7/2 (BET365) - 1PT
DJED SPENCE - OVER 4.5 TACKLES - 13/2 (BET365) - 0.5PTS
Three weeks can be a long time in football, especially when you consider that you've played five times in that period. However, it's been a contrasting three weeks as far as Tottenham and Newcastle are concerned. Ange Postecoglu's Spurs side have stuck to their philosophy despite shipping twelve goals across those five games. On the other hand, Eddie Howe and Newcastle have won five from five, only conceding one goal in that time. Spurs' recent wretched record against the Magpies will not fill them with confidence coming into this one. Spurs have only recorded one win in their last five meetings, including 6-1 and 4-0 drubbings at St. James' Park.
Only once in the last ten head-to-head matches have either of the sides failed to score - the aforementioned 4-0 thumping. Given that record, you can see why all value has been sucked out of the goal markets, with BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals being a measly 8/15. I can see Newcastle counter-attacking here with Anthony Gordon being the focal point of this. However, his price of 1/1 to Score or Assist was just slightly too slim to tempt me.
Some explanation of Spurs' recent decline can be attributed to the injury crisis that has plagued Ange Postecoglu's squad and these concerns only grew on Sunday against Wolves when Destiny Udogie was forced off early in the second half with a second hamstring injury in the space of a month - this means the Italian is set to spend a number of weeks on the sidelines. One boost for Postecoglu will be the return of Djed Spence from suspension, which should fill the void left by Udogie. Spence was enjoying his most consistent run in a Spurs shirt prior to his suspension and one pattern that emerged was the number of tackles he was completing. Spence is averaging 3.32 tackles per 90 and his four starts have resulted in 3, 2, 5, 3. Against a Newcastle side that has seen the starting left-sided defender complete 3+ tackles in 5 of their last 15 games (with 2 being completed on 5 of the other 10 occasions). I was drawn to the price of Spence to complete 3+ tackles at 15/8 with Coral and given the record of left sided defenders against Newcastle, I am happy to take a punt on 4+ & 5+ with bet365 at the prices. Spence should play the full 90 minutes given the injury issues surrounding the Spurs defence and I feel this price will be a lot shorter in weeks to come.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
01/09/2024 - NEWCASTLE 2-1 Tottenham (Premier League)
13/04/2024 - NEWCASTLE 4-0 Tottenham (Premier League)
10/12/2023 - TOTTENHAM 4-1 Newcastle (Premier League)
23/04/2023 - NEWCASTLE 6-1 Tottenham (Premier League)
23/10/2022 - Tottenham 1-2 NEWCASTLE (Premier League)
