Super Sunday (26/01/25) - Previews, Best Bets & H2H Records
- JN Value Betting
- Jan 26
- 3 min read
BEST BETS:
CRYSTAL PALACE VS BRENTFORD:
JEFFERSON LERMA - TO HAVE 1+ SHOT ON TARGET - 17/10 (BET VICTOR) - 1PT
ASTON VILLA VS WEST HAM UNITED:
MORGAN ROGERS - TO BE CARDED - 13/2 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS
CRYSTAL PALACE VS BRENTFORD
Just three defeats in seventeen matches has catapulted Crystal Palace to 12th place in the Premier League, quickly extinguishing any talk surrounding a relegation battle. They'll fancy keeping that run going when they host a Brentford side who have won just once on the road all season in the Premier League - albeit, that was last time out on their travels with a 5-0 thumping of bottom side Southampton.
Jefferson Lerma had enjoyed a consistent run in the Crystal Palace midfield, prior to being withdrawn due to illness after 20 minutes against Leicester. Oliver Glasner has confirmed that Lerma is available for selection once again now, and I fancy him to regain his place in the Palace starting lineup. Throughout his run in the team this season, I have noticed a trend that Lerma hasn't been afraid to get a shot away, with him only failing to register a shot in two of his starts this season. He has hit the target in seven of his last eight starts (excluding his 20 minutes against Leicester), therefore I was surprised to see the 17/10 on offer for the Colombian to register a shot on target here.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
18/08/2024 - BRENTFORD 2-1 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
30/12/2023 - CRYSTAL PALACE 3-1 Brentford (Premier League)
26/08/2023 - Brentford 1-1 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
18/02/2023 - Brentford 1-1 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
30/08/2022 - Crystal Palace 1-1 Brentford (Premier League)
ASTON VILLA VS WEST HAM UNITED
Despite only being in the West Ham dugout for just 17 days, Graham Potter will be getting the feeling of déjà vu as his side travel to Villa Park to take on Aston Villa for the second time in just over two weeks. This time it's Premier League action, and Potter will be keen for his side to avenge their 2-1 FA Cup defeat. Aston Villa come into this one fresh off the back of defeat in Monaco in the Champions League. This fixture is sandwiched between their final two Champions League games, and it's hard to imagine this will be a priority with Celtic visiting Villa Park on Wednesday.
I was drawn to the price of Morgan Rogers to pick up a card here, with the Villa winger being priced up at 13/2 to find his way into the referee's notebook. Rogers has been carded in four of his last five matches - which includes him being cautioned in the FA meeting just two weeks ago. This has taken his total to eight cards for the season, and Rogers is averaging 1.44 fouls committed per 90 in that timeframe. There has been a recent rise in the number of fouls he is committing, with fifteen being committed in just his last six matches. Should that continue here, it's hard to see us not experiencing some déjà vu of our own with referee Peter Bankes averaging 4.75 cards per game across the last two seasons, a few fouls should see this one land. Given the record of Rogers, I am baffled as to how this has been priced at 13/2.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
10/01/2025 - ASTON VILLA 2-1 West Ham (FA Cup)
17/08/2024 - West Ham 1-2 ASTON VILLA (Premier League)
17/03/2024 - West Ham 1-1 Aston Villa (Premier League)
22/10/2023 - ASTON VILLA 4-1 West Ham (Premier League)
12/03/2023 - West Ham 1-1 Aston Villa (Premier League)
