Super Sunday (23/02/25) - Previews, Best Bets & H2H Records
- JN Value Betting
- Feb 22
- 4 min read
BEST BETS:
NEWCASTLE UNITED VS NOTTINGHAM FOREST:
FABIAN SCHAR - TO BE CARDED - 31/10 (LIVESCORE BET) - 1PT
DAN BURN - TO BE CARDED - 4/1 (SKY BET) - 1PT
FABIAN SCHAR & DAN BURN - TO BE CARDED - 14/1 (LIVESCORE BET) - 0.5PTS
MANCHESTER CITY VS LIVERPOOL:
PHIL FODEN - TO HAVE 1+ SHOT FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA - 4/5 (BETFAIR) - 1.5PTS
PHIL FODEN - TO HAVE 2+ SHOTS FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA - 10/3 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS
TRENT ALEXANDER-ARNOLD - TO HAVE 1+ SHOT FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA - 8/11 (BETFAIR) - 1.5PTS
TRENT ALEXANDER-ARNOLD - TO HAVE 2+ SHOTS FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA - 16/5 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS
NEWCASTLE UNITED VS NOTTINGHAM FOREST
Six points and five places separate Newcastle and Nottingham Forest, with both sides hoping to be playing Champions League football come September. Newcastle's hopes took a hit last weekend when they were thumped 4-0 by Manchester City. I am sure all will be forgiven for the Toon Army should Newcastle win the Carabao Cup next month. There has certainly been a downturn in the Magpies' form since they booked their place in the Wembley showpiece. Nottingham Forest will be hoping to take full advantage, and move to within just three points of second placed Arsenal. This was the first fixture that Nuno Espirito Santo won as Nottingham Forest manager when his side ran at 3-1 winners at St. James' Park last season.
A hotly contested battle awaits us in this one, and I am keen to look towards the cards markets. An opposing centre back has been carded in nine Premier League matches for Forest this season - including in the reverse fixture when Dan Burn was carded. I am happy to get Burn onside once again here, he has been carded eight times in 2,593 minutes this season, and I was surprised to see 4/1 available on him making that nine. I'll also back his likely centre back partner Fabian Schar, the Swiss centre half boasts a better card record than Burn with him receiving nine cards in 2,267 minutes this season. I'll have a small play on the double for both to be carded, referee Jarred Gillett has averaged 4.07 cards per game this season - which rises to 4.57 when refereeing in the Premier League. Given the importance of the game for both sides, he should hit this average.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
10/11/2024 - Nottingham Forest 1-3 NEWCASTLE (Premier League)
28/08/2024 - Nottingham Forest 1-1* (3-4 Pens) NEWCASTLE (EFL Cup)
10/02/2024 - Nottingham Forest 2-3 NEWCASTLE (Premier League)
26/12/2023 - Newcastle 1-3 NOTTINGHAM FOREST (Premier League)
17/03/2023 - Nottingham Forest 1-2 NEWCASTLE (Premier League)
MANCHESTER CITY VS LIVERPOOL
Liverpool have been great adversaries of Manchester City throughout their dominant period in the Premier League, with them managing to keep pace with Pep Guardiola's relentless side, even winning a league title back in 2019/20. Manchester City will relinquish their title for the first time in five seasons and unsurprisingly it looks to be almost certainly heading to Merseyside. An eight point margin separates Liverpool from the remote chasing pack, and Arne Slot's Reds show no signs of relenting enough to open the door for anyone else. Manchester City will look to halt the Dutchman's twenty-two game unbeaten run, but given their performance in Madrid on Wednesday evening, they will have their work cut out.
Last season's Premier League Player of the Season Phil Foden has enjoyed a far quieter campaign this time out, with him notching just seven goals thus far. Despite Foden not being able to maintain the remarkable pace of last season, he is still involved heavily in the City attack, and I am backing him to make his mark in this one. Foden has seen half of his 86 shots this season come from outside the area, and with 4/5 on offer for him to have just one shot from outside the area here, I am happy to get stuck in. He has had at least two shots in ten of his last eleven matches at the Etihad, and is averaging 2.41 shots per game this season, so we should see him have at least one from outside the area in this one.
Sitting atop of the Premier League and Champions League tables haven't been enough to tempt Trent Alexander-Arnold into signing a contract extension at Anfield yet, and with Real Madrid circling, it is likely that he could depart his boyhood club at the end of the season. I am looking to take advantage of the generous prices for him to have shots from outside the area as well. Alexander-Arnold has seen 33 of his 42 shots come from outside the area, a massive 79%. He's averaging 1.46 shots per game this season, and has started to take more shots in recent weeks with sixteen coming in his last seven appearances. Should he continue this run, it is likely that any shots he has will come from outside the 18-yard box, and that will secure us profit.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
01/12/2024 - LIVERPOOL 2-0 Man City (Premier League)
10/03/2024 - Liverpool 1-1 Man City (Premier League)
25/11/2023 - Man City 1-1 Liverpool (Premier League)
01/04/2023 - MAN CITY 4-1 Liverpool (Premier League)
22/12/2022 - MAN CITY 3-2 Liverpool (EFL Cup)
