Super Sunday (19/01/25) - Previews, Best Bets & H2H Records
- JN Value Betting
- Jan 18
- 4 min read
Updated: Jan 19
BEST BETS:
EVERTON VS TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR:
OREL MANGALA & IDRISSA GUEYE - BOTH TO HAVE 1+ SHOT - 8/5 (BET365) - 1PT
OREL MANGALA - TO HAVE 1+ SHOT ON TARGET FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA - 9/4 (SKY BET) - 1PT
IDRISSA GUEYE - TO HAVE 1+ SHOT ON TARGET FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA - 3/1 (SKY BET) - 1PT
IPSWICH TOWN VS MANCHESTER CITY:
PHIL FODEN - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 9/4 (SKY BET) - 1PT
PHIL FODEN - TO SCORE 2+ GOALS - 16/1 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS
PHIL FODEN - TO SCORE A HAT-TRICK - 100/1 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS
RICO LEWIS - TO BE FOULED 2+ TIMES - 11/10 (SKY BET) - 1PT
EVERTON VS TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR
It wasn't the fairytale return to Everton that David Moyes would have hoped for when his side went down to Aston Villa on Wednesday evening. Whilst they threatened more than they had done under Sean Dyche, the Blues failed to make any of their pressure pay, and ultimately still find themselves just one point above the drop zone. Moyes will get a second chance to make good on his Goodison return when they host Spurs to kick-off Super Sunday. Ange Postecoglu's side head to Merseyside fresh from their 2-1 defeat to fellow North London rivals Arsenal just four days ago. Postecoglu will be hoping to get more out of his Spurs side following their below-par performance at the Emirates in midweek. Whilst winning a trophy would make this season a success (regardless of their league position), the Aussie manager will feel the axe of Daniel Levy edging ever closer as Spurs start the day in 15th place, just one place above their opponents.
One angle which I looked to expose on Wednesday night was the Everton central midfielders to have shots on target from outside the area. Sadly, Idrissa Gueye recorded three shots from outside the 18 yard box. However, all of these didn't find the target. I am going to stick to my guns here though, opting for both Orel Mangala and Idrissa Gueye to each have a shot - this did land in the Aston Villa fixture. Mangala has recorded at least one shot in ten of his last eleven games, whilst Gueye is averaging 1.18 shots per 90 this season. Given Tottenham's style of play, I'd imagine this Everton side will still get chances, and am confident of both Mangala and Gueye getting at least one shot away. I am going to keep the faith with them having a shot on target from outside the area as well, with 9/4 on offer for Mangala and 3/1 on offer once more for Gueye. The former has seen 13 of his 17 shots come from outside the area this season, while Idrissa Gueye has seen 15 of his 21 shots come from at least 18 yards out. This Spurs side are averaging 3.84 shots conceded from outside the area this season and the two aforementioned players are the main protagonists here. Moyes' West Ham side saw 30% of their shots come from outside the area last season, and this is one small change that he can implement on his new Everton side without much work on the training ground.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
24/08/2024 - TOTTENHAM 4-0 Everton (Premier League)
03/02/2024 - Everton 2-2 Tottenham (Premier League)
23/12/2023 - TOTTENHAM 2-1 Everton (Premier League)
03/04/2023 - Everton 1-1 Tottenham (Premier League)
15/10/2022 - TOTTENHAM 2-0 Everton (Premier League)
IPSWICH TOWN VS MANCHESTER CITY
Despite getting back in their flow, Man City were made to pay late on, on Tuesday night when Brentford hit them with a sucker punch in the final ten minutes where they managed to squander a 2-0 lead. They'll fancy their chances at getting back to winning ways here at the hands of 18th placed Ipswich, who suffered a disappointing 2-0 defeat at home to Brighton on Thursday evening. It was an extra 48 hours of rest for Pep Guardiola's side, which they will relish given their crucial Champions League fixture that they will face in midweek in Paris. It wouldn't be a massive surprise to see Guardiola rotate here with that in mind. However, he may feel that he would like his side to regain the winning thread prior to their trip to the continent on Wednesday evening.
Phil Foden singlehandedly gave Manchester City their two goal lead at Brentford on Tuesday evening, and the Premier League Player of the Season from last campaign is starting to find the form that took him to that award last season. Foden has four goals in his last six matches, taking his total to 33 goals since the start of the last campaign. I am happy to take the 9/4 on offer for Foden to keep his good form going and score here. It is likely that Man City will have too much for Ipswich here, and I see Foden playing a big part in this. He managed two hat-tricks in his 19 goals last season, and I am going to have a small play on him bagging a brace and a hat-trick here.
I have been keen to benefit from the physicality of Liam Delap when Ipswich have been playing, and I am going to look to take advantage once again here. Pep Guardiola opted to play Matheus Nunes in an unfamiliar right-back role at Brentford on Tuesday, but I cannot see that continuing here, and would imagine that we'll see Rico Lewis adopt this role in the absence of Kyle Walker. Lewis is no stranger to being fouled - averaging 1.45 fouls won per 90 this campaign. He was fouled five times in the reverse fixture albeit, he did operate in holding midfield. However, he has been fouled at least twice in six of his twelve starts are right back this season, and I am going to back that to continue here. Delap is averaging 2.39 fouls committed per 90 this season, and with this match coming against his former side, I am sure he will be keen to make his presence felt (he committed 5 fouls in the reverse fixture).
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
24/08/2024 - MANCHESTER CITY 4-1 Ipswich (Premier League)
27/01/2002 - Ipswich 1-4 MANCHESTER CITY (FA Cup)
07/05/2001 - IPSWICH 2-1 Manchester City (Premier League)
18/12/2000 - Manchester City 1-2 (AET) IPSWICH (EFL Cup)
25/11/2000 - Manchester City 2-3 IPSWICH (Premier League)
