Super Sunday (09/03/25) - Previews, Best Bets & H2H Records
- JN Value Betting
- Mar 8
- 5 min read
BEST BETS:
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR VS AFC BOURNEMOUTH:
AFC BOURNEMOUTH - TO COMMIT 14+ FOULS - 1/1 (SKY BET) - 1PT
TYLER ADAMS - TO BE CARDED - 3/1 (SKY BET) - 1PT
MANCHESTER UNITED VS ARSENAL:
RICCARDO CALAFIORI - TO HAVE 1+ SHOT - 4/5 (SKY BET) - 1PT
RICCARDO CALAFIORI - TO HAVE 2+ SHOTS - 4/1 (SKY BET) - 0.25PTS
RICCARDO CALAFIORI - TO HAVE 3+ SHOTS - 14/1 (SKY BET) - 0.25PTS
RICCARDO CALAFIORI - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 12/1 (BET365) - 0.25PTS
MIKEL MERINO - TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS - 49/50 (UNIBET) - 1PT
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR VS AFC BOURNEMOUTH
Tottenham host Bournemouth with one side harbouring hopes for European football, and the other stuck in mid-table. Ordinarily, you'd expect Tottenham to be the side chasing the European spots. However, that's far from the case. An injury plagued season has seen them sitting in thirteenth place and staring down the barrel of their lowest league finish since the 2007/08 season. Incidentally, that was the last season that they got their hands on some silverware, and they'll be hoping lightning strikes twice, and they can get their hands on the Europa League trophy - their priorities will be focused on that competition with a crucial second leg against AZ Alkmaar coming up at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Thursday evening. The visitors will be looking to take full advantage of any lack of focus that Spurs may have in this one, and they'll have the opportunity to put themselves in the top six with a win.
The key to the success of Bournemouth under Andoni Iraola is the aggressive pressing style of play that they deploy. That has reportedly got Iraola on the shortlist to become the successor to Carlo Ancelotti at Real Madrid, and it's hardly surprising given the exploits of his Cherries side this season. I am keen to take advantage of their style of play in this one, especially against a Spurs side who certainly will go toe-to-toe with Bournemouth, as they do in every match. The Cherries have committed at least fourteen fouls in ten of their last twelve matches, and committed fifteen in the reverse fixture - I was surprised to see even money available for them to continue that run here. They also committed eighteen fouls in both fixtures against Spurs last season as well, and I can see there being a large number of fouls committed once again.
Should he earn a starting place, I can see Tyler Adams gaining the attention of referee John Brooks, the American international has been carded in his two Premier League appearances against Tottenham, and has picked up 5 cards in just 1,373 minutes this season. He is also averaging 2.10 fouls per 90 this campaign, and in a game where I can see it being freely contested, I can see Adams making one too many cynical fouls for Brooks' liking.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
05/12/2024 - BOURNEMOUTH 1-0 Tottenham (Premier League)
31/12/2023 - TOTTENHAM 3-1 Bournemouth (Premier League)
26/08/2023 - Bournemouth 0-2 TOTTENHAM (Premier League)
15/04/2023 - Tottenham 2-3 BOURNEMOUTH (Premier League)
29/10/2022 - Bournemouth 2-3 TOTTENHAM (Premier League)
MANCHESTER UNITED VS ARSENAL
One of the Premier League's great rivalries is renewed at Old Trafford on Sunday when Arsenal travel to Man United. The shine has certainly been taken off this one over the years with both sides suffering long spells without the success of their past. You can be forgiven for thinking that Man United's priorities lie elsewhere, with them being marooned in the bottom half of the Premier League table, and following their exit from the FA Cup last weekend, they now rely on the Europa League to bring them success this season - much like fellow strugglers Tottenham. Arsenal will also have priorities in European competition, however, they took care of those in the first leg of the Champions League Last 16 clash with PSV in Eindhoven on Tuesday evening, running out 7-1 winners. You'd like to believe that they'll have more of a focus on this one that the hosts, especially with their second leg against Real Sociedad just four days on from this one.
Given the likelihood that Arsenal will be more 'motivated' than Man United in this one, I am keen to get them onside in some way. Their price of 8/11 in the win market could easily prove valuable, however, I am happy to look elsewhere for some value. I stumbled upon the prices of Riccardo Calafiori in the shots markets. Fresh from his manager saying that he was pleasantly surprised by the Italian's attacking prowess both in matches and on the training pitch, I will take a punt on Calafiori displaying those attacking tendencies, once again. Coming on a first half substitute on Tuesday evening, the Arsenal left back scored and assisted in the rout - registering his third goal of the season in the process. Calafiori has registered a shot in ten of his fifteen starts this season, and I am happy to take the 4/5 on offer for him to continue that run. There have been rumours that he could be deployed in a more attacking role in the coming weeks with Arsenal still in the midst of an injury crisis in forward areas. I am therefore happy to have a small play on him registering two and three shots, as well as getting on the scoresheet. With three goals in 1,333 minutes this season, I am happy to take a chance on the 12/1 on offer. The full back is averaging 1.08 shots per 90 this campaign, and against a Man United side who face an average of 11.19 shots per game this season, I can see Calafiori delivering us a profit, should he start ahead of Lewis-Skelly, or as a makeshift attacker.
Speaking of makeshift attackers, Mikel Merino has been just that in recent weeks following his impressive two-goal cameo at Leicester last month. He got himself on the scoresheet again on Tuesday evening, and is likely to lead the line for the Gunners in this one, in the absence of a recognised striker. Merino has committed 2+ fouls in his three starts up front, and this has marked a run of him doing this in six of his last seven. He's committing an average of 2.01 fouls per 90 this campaign, and I am happy to take the 49/50 on offer for him to continue this run.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
12/01/2025 - Arsenal 1-1* (3-5 pens) MAN UNITED (FA Cup)
04/12/2024 - ARSENAL 2-0 Man United (Premier League)
12/05/2024 - Man United 0-1 ARSENAL (Premier League)
03/09/2023 - ARSENAL 3-1 Man United (Premier League)
22/01/2023 - ARSENAL 3-2 Man United (Premier League)
