Super Sunday (05/01/24) - Preview, Best Bets & H2H Record
- JN Value Betting
- Jan 5, 2025
- 5 min read
Updated: Jan 6, 2025
BEST BETS:
FULHAM VS IPSWICH:
CALVIN BASSEY & ANTONEE ROBINSON - BOTH TO BE FOULED 1+ TIME - 31/20 (BETFAIR) - 1PT
CALVIN BASSEY - TO BE FOULED 2+ TIMES - 3/1 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS
ANTONEE ROBINSON - TO BE FOULED 2+ TIMES - 7/2 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS
LIVERPOOL VS MANCHESTER UNITED:
VIRGIL VAN DIJK - TO HAVE A HEADED SHOT ON TARGET - 7/2 (SKY BET) - 1PT
VIRGIL VAN DIJK - TO SCORE A HEADER - 12/1 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS
MOHAMED SALAH - TO SCORE & ASSIST - 4/1 (WILLIAM HILL) - 0.5PTS
FULHAM VS IPSWICH
Super Sunday gets underway in West London where Fulham welcome Ipswich with both sides revelling in recent victories against Chelsea. Marco Silva is getting a fine tune out of his Fulham side who have a chance to put themselves just three points off the Premier League's top four - a fixture against eighteenth placed Ipswich could be just what the doctor ordered. However, there have been signs that things might be falling into place for Kieran McKenna and his Ipswich side, two wins in their last four and a narrow defeat at the Emirates against Arsenal will give this Ipswich side the confidence that they may be able to get something from this one. Fulham do head into this one with only one defeat in their last eleven, so you'd expect Ipswich to be up against it here.
A highlight of Ipswich's return to the Premier League thus far has been the rise of top scorer Liam Delap. With seven goals so far this season, he has been a bright spark amongst this Ipswich squad. One of Delap's main attributes has been his physicality, the youngster certainly hasn't been shy in 'putting himself about' in matches and that has led to him committing a large number of fouls. He is currently averaging 2.49 fouls per 90 this season and that has seen at least one starting centre back for the opposition be fouled in 16 of Ipswich's 19 games this season. When we look further into this, it has seen the left sided defender (either left back or left wing-back) be fouled at least once in 12 of 19. I feel that this is a run that could continue here and the prime candidates for this within the Fulham team are Calvin Bassey and Antonee Robinson. The former has been fouled in 12 of his 18 appearances this season and is averaging 0.94 fouls per game. Meanwhile, Robinson has been fouled at least once in 7 of his last 10. Given they'll likely be facing the physical Delap, I am happy to pair these up to both be fouled 1+ time and will have a play at the price of 31/20. I've also taken a small punt on each player to be fouled 2+ times given the disparity in pricing between bookmakers - Bassey is priced at 3/1 to be fouled 2+ times with Betfair (with this being as short as 11/8 elsewhere), while Robinson is 7/2 to be fouled twice (as short as 5/2 elsewhere).
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
31/08/2024 - Ipswich 1-1 Fulham (Premier League)
01/11/2023 - Ipswich 1-3 FULHAM (EFL Cup)
16/09/2020 - Ipswich 0-1 FULHAM (EFL Cup)
02/01/2018 - FULHAM 4-1 Ipswich (Championship)
26/08/2017 - Ipswich 0-2 FULHAM (Championship)
LIVERPOOL VS MANCHESTER UNITED
All eyes will be on Anfield where Liverpool take on a Manchester United side who are in turmoil. These two sides' seasons could not be anymore contrasting - Liverpool have entered the Arne Slot era only suffering defeat once in their 27 matches this season and sit top of both the Premier League and Champions League. Whilst Manchester United have entered the Ruben Amorim era with their new manager admitting his side are in a relegation battle for the remainder of the season. Whether that is quite the case remains to be seen, but the magnitude of those claims are undoubtedly a visible scar of the state of the club.
For Liverpool, a chance to go eight points clear (with a game in hand to come against Merseyside rivals Everton) will be more than any Liverpool fan had imagined was possible, as we pass the halfway point of the season, and it's hard to see that not being the case here. Their opponents are winless at Anfield since 2016 - a run stretching back nine games. Their most successful tactic has been to 'park the bus' - managing four 0-0 draws in that time. Whether those tactics are deployed here or not still leaves some doubt as to whether this crop of Manchester United players are capable of stopping this juggernaut of a Liverpool side.
The likelihood of a Manchester United result is clear in the prices with the hosts being best priced 1/3 to win this one. As previously mentioned, the only realistic option of Man United getting anything from this one, is to 'shut up shop' - tactics they used to some degree of success away at Arsenal, early on in the Amorim reign.
In recent weeks, Man United's Achilles' heel has been their vulnerability from set-pieces. They've conceded from a set-piece in five of their last six matches, including remarkably directly from a corner in two games in that run. I am happy to look to exploit this in the form of Virgil van Dijk. The Liverpool captain has had 14 shots this season and 11 of these have been with his head, this includes two goals (against AC Milan and Arsenal). The nature of the game could lead to a large number of set pieces for Liverpool, and this will give van Dijk ample opportunity to attack the Man United goal. Therefore, I am happy to have a play at the prices for him to record a shot on target, where this is best priced 7/2. Man United's downfall against Arsenal when they were happy to try to grind out a stalemate, was corners, where Arsenal scored both of their goals, should this be the case here, I can see Liverpool having the same success and van Dijk will be key to this. Therefore, I was surprised to see his price to score a header at 12/1. There are four Liverpool players priced shorter in this market than van Dijk. However, I cannot see there being more of a threat within the Liverpool ranks than van Dijk.
Another week has passed and another Mo Salah masterclass has been and gone and the Liverpool talisman's contract saga still rumbling on. This seems to have drawn out a consistent string of remarkable performances from Salah (somehow even more than he was providing before), who has scored and assisted in 9 of his 24 starts this season (including in the reverse fixture back in September). The Egyptian has scored in 10 of his last 12 appearances against Manchester United and you'd be brave to assume this record will not be enhanced here. The price of him to score at 5/6 seems slightly too slim to be drawn in by, so I am happy to pair this with him to assist as well - with this being priced at 4/1. 20 goals and 17 assists thus far leaves Salah on-course for yet another record breaking season and it's hard to imagine that he will not add to his respective tallies against a Manchester United side in complete disarray.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
01/09/2024 - Manchester United 0-3 LIVERPOOL (Premier League)
07/04/2024 - Manchester United 2-2 Liverpool (Premier League)
17/03/2024 - MANCHESTER UNITED 4-3 (AET) Liverpool (FA Cup)
17/12/2023 - Liverpool 0-0 Manchester United (Premier League)
05/03/2023 - LIVERPOOL 7-0 Manchester United (Premier League)
