Royal Ascot (Day Three) Preview - 19/06/25
- JN Value Betting
- Jun 17
- 7 min read
Updated: Jun 21
BEST BETS:
MERCHANT - 15:05 (KING GEORGE V STAKES) - 3/1 (WILLIAM HILL) - 1PT WIN
GARDEN OF EDEN - 15:40 (RIBBLESDALE STAKES) - 8/1 (LADBROKES) - 0.5PTS E/W (3 PLACES)
ILLINOIS - 16:20 (GOLD CUP) - 9/4 (WILLIAM HILL) - 1PT WIN
YASHIN - 16:20 (GOLD CUP) - 66/1 (WILLIAM HILL) - 0.25PTS E/W (3 PLACES)
TEROOMM - 17:00 (BRITANNIA STAKES) - 9/1 (LADBROKES) - 0.5PTS E/W (4 PLACES)
TRIBAL NATION - 17:00 (BRITANNIA STAKES) - 40/1 (BET365) - 0.25PTS E/W (4 PLACES)
TORNADO ALERT - 17:35 (HAMPTON COURT STAKES) - 11/2 (BET365) - 0.5PTS E/W (4 PLACES)
NEVER SO BRAVE - 18:10 (BUCKINGHAM PALACE STAKES) - 6/1 (BET365) - 0.5PTS E/W (6 PLACES)
MYAL - 18:10 (BUCKINGHAM PALACE STAKES) - 25/1 (BET365) - 0.25PTS E/W (6 PLACES)
Gold Cup day awaits us at Royal Ascot, with another of the big betting days on the cards. The absence of Kyprios leaves the big race of the day wide open, with Aidan O'Brien saddling Illinois, looking to fill the void left by his champion stayer.
The day kicks off with the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes over five furlongs, where Charles Darwin looks set to go off an odds-on favourite for Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore. Whilst this is the first big field that he will tackle, he looks a clear pick on form based on the figures of his first three runs. It looks like it will take an impressive performance to deny him here.
Next up is the King George V Stakes over 1m 4f, nineteen runners are set to go to post for this handicap, with MERCHANT for William Haggas heading the market. This son of Teofilo was an impressive winner at York last time out, dispatching the interesting Rahiebb by two and a half lengths. That horse holds an entry in the Group 2 Queen's Vase at the meeting this week and could give a welcome boost to the form of that York race. William Haggas trained the winner of this race in 2023, with the last Royal winner at the meeting, Desert Hero. He is up 8lbs from the aforementioned victory last time out, however, that doesn't look like it could stop him with the manner of that victory. Sing Us A Song looks to lead the main dangers to the favourite, having been purchased by Wathnan Racing since his last run, going for Ralph Beckett who has landed this contest in two of the last three runnings.
MERCHANT - 15:05 (KING GEORGE V STAKES) - 3/1 (WILLIAM HILL) - 1PT WIN
Despite dominating the race, winning eight of the last nine runnings between them, Aidan O'Brien and John & Thady Gosden do not saddle the antepost favourite for the Ribblesdale Stakes. The Andrew Balding trained Serenity Prayer looks set to go off favourite, following her runners-up effort behind Whirl in the Musidora Stakes at York last time out. She is the clear form pick in the race, however, we have seen both the O'Brien and Gosden stables uncover new stars in this race in the past, and I expect that to happy, once again. GARDEN OF EDEN is the pick of the Ballydoyle runners for Ryan Moore, and I am going to side with her to land this prize for a third consecutive year for both Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore. She looked to relish the step up in trip in her last run, and stepping up further to twelve furlongs looks sure to suit.
GARDEN OF EDEN - 15:40 (RIBBLESDALE STAKES) - 8/1 (LADBROKES) - 0.5PTS E/W (3 PLACES)
The big race of the day, and the whole meeting in fact is the Ascot Gold Cup over 2m 4f where it has once again been dominated by the powerhouse stables of Aidan O'Brien and John & Thady Gosden - winning eight of the last eleven renewals between them. They unsurprisingly have the two horses at the head of the market, with last year's runner-up Trawlerman looking to go one better in the race this year. He looks set to edge out favouritism ahead of the Aidan O'Brien trained ILLINOIS, who is attempting this distance for the first time. There are question marks around whether this strong galloper can sustain his effort over the extended 2m 4f, however, I feel that O'Brien will have another multiple Gold Cup winner on his hands to fill the void left by Kyprios. Illinois won over 1m 7f at Longchamp last year on Soft ground, and that shows that he could have a chance of seeing out this new trip on faster ground.
The French trained Candelari looks set to serve it up to Trawlerman and Illinois at the head of the market, having won four of his five starts. He like Illinois is stepping up in trip markedly, however, his trainer Francis-Henri Graffard is bullish about his chances.
Given the uncertainties surrounding those at the head of the market, I am happy to have a small each-way on the outsider of the field YASHIN. The step up to 2m last time out at Ascot showed a noticeable improvement for this son of Churchill. This was his first run for his new yard, and his trainer Michael Bell knows exactly what it takes to win this contest, saddling the winner in 2017 Big Orange. He dispatched Coltrane by one length, going away at the line, and a whilst this is a major step up in grade, he could easily run into a place with questions about those at the head of the market.
ILLINOIS - 16:20 (GOLD CUP) - 9/4 (WILLIAM HILL) - 1PT WIN
YASHIN - 16:20 (GOLD CUP) - 66/1 (WILLIAM HILL) - 0.25PTS E/W (3 PLACES)
Another of the big betting races of the whole meeting is the Britannia Stakes over the straight mile, where it's another handicap favourite for William Haggas and Tom Marquand, who have Raafedd on his handicap debut following at comfortable success at Newbury last time out. He could prove to be a handicap blot with a mark of 92 looking generous. However, I am looking to side with the other Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum runner TEROOMM for Roger Varian. Following a similar pattern to the other big field handicaps over the straight course, I was drawn to the horses who have the highest draw, and this colt has the highest draw of them all in stall 33. He has won all three of his races this season, with a victory in Haydock's Silver Bowl last time out. He is up 6lbs for that win, but this could still be well within his reach. I was surprised to see him not at the head of the market, and am happy to have an each-way play at the odds on offer, with 6 place available.
This race can prove a difficult puzzle to solve, and could easily throw out a big priced winner, and I have identified a horse a bigger odds who I expect to outrun those odds. The Joseph O'Brien trained TRIBAL NATION, he ran in a Group 3 two starts ago, and was then dropped in grade back to handicap company last time out over a mile. He dwelt at the start, missing the break, however, he ran on into third. He has been given a break since that run, clearly with this contest in mind, and off an unchanged mark, he could easily make the frame.
TEROOMM - 17:00 (BRITANNIA STAKES) - 9/1 (LADBROKES) - 0.5PTS E/W (4 PLACES)
TRIBAL NATION - 17:00 (BRITANNIA STAKES) - 40/1 (BET365) - 0.25PTS E/W (4 PLACES)
The final group action of the day comes in the penultimate race, with the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes taking place over ten furlongs. Detain looks to bring the best form to the race, having finished a one-length third to Camille Pissarro in the Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club last time out, finishing just ahead of the Aidan O'Brien trained Trinity College, who re-opposes here. They look set to battle it out for favouritism, alongside the well-fancied Jackknife who looks like he needed the step up in trip he gets here in his last race at Sandown.
My eye has been drawn to the Godolphin runner TORNADO ALERT for Saeed bin Suroor. He has put in two credible efforts in the 2000 Guineas and the Derby, finishing fourth and sixth respectively, a drop in grade here could be just what he needs to get himself in the Winners' Enclosure. He seemed to need a step up in trip following his run at Newmarket in the 2000 Guineas, and then looked as if twelve furlongs may have been a step too far in the Derby, so the step back in trip to ten furlongs could be what he needs.
TORNADO ALERT - 17:35 (HAMPTON COURT STAKES) - 11/2 (BET365) - 0.5PTS E/W (4 PLACES)
Gold Cup day comes to a close with the Buckingham Palace Stakes over seven furlongs. This race returned in 2020 following a five-year hiatus, and has followed suit with the other big field handicaps, being won by a horse with a high drawn in four of the last five runnings, with the winning horses coming from the following stalls; 26 (2024), 24 (2023), 2 (2022), 31 (2021) & 26 (2020). The classy Highfield Princess landed this race in 2021, and it can prove a springboard for horses into group company.
NEVER SO BRAVE for Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy looks set to be towards the head of the market following his runner-up effort behind MYAL last time out at Chester. The former was unlucky not to win on that occasion, and can go one better here on his second run for his new yard. He finished just four and a half lengths behind Haatem over seven furlongs in the Jersey Stakes at this meeting last year, and anything close to that form will see him go close to landing this prize. This son of No Nay Never has been drawn in stall 28, which will only aid his chances. His Chester conquerer Myal has six wins from seven runs in seven furlong handicaps, which is an impressive record to bring into this one. His one defeat did come here, however, over course and distance. Although, I feel his draw in stall 30 for this one will allow him to be a lot closer at the business end. Rossa Ryan has been booked for the ride, winning on his only previous run on this horse at Carlisle.
Last year's winner English Oak returns off just 1lb higher than his success last year. However, he is yet to win since that victory last year. He is drawn in stall 27, and this could have been a target, however, it's hard to fancy him based on his subsequent runs.
ROGUE LEGEND - 18:10 (WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES) - 4/1 (BET365) - 1PT WIN
SOVEREIGN SPELL - 18:10 (KENSINGTON PALACE STAKES) - 25/1 (BET365) - 0.25PTS E/W (4 PLACES)
