Premier League Value Bets - (26/04/25 - 27/04/25)

JN Value Betting
Apr 25
4 min read

BEST BETS:

CHELSEA VS EVERTON:

OVER 3.5 MATCH CARDS & EVERTON - OVER 1.5 TEAM CARDS - 1/1 (BETWAY) - 1PT

NEWCASTLE UNITED VS IPSWICH TOWN:

JACOB MURPHY - TO SCORE OR ASSIST - 1/1 (PADDY POWER) - 1PT

JACOB MURPHY - TO SCORE & ASSIST - 11/1 (UNIBET) - 0.25PTS

The Premier League title and relegation places will almost certainly be confirmed by full time at Anfield on Sunday afternoon. Liverpool require just one point to secure their second Premier League title in five years, and look like they'll do so against Tottenham this weekend. Ange Postecoglu's side have their eyes on their Europa League Semi-Final on Thursday evening against Bodo/Glimt, and will be forgiven should they not be fully focused on getting a result on Merseyside just four days prior to that crucial tie. As for the relegation places, with Southampton and Leicester already falling by the wayside, it leaves Ipswich requiring snookers in order to haul themselves out of the relegation places, to prevent all three promoted sides going straight back down for the second consecutive season. One thing that is still all to play for is the race for the European places, and with the realistic possibility of England having eight or nine teams in European competition next season, it leaves the door open for a number of sides to secure their place amongst Europe's elite.

CHELSEA VS EVERTON

One of the prime candidates for the Champions League places is Chelsea, they sit just two points outside of the top five, and will be hoping that their last gasp victory across West London at Fulham last weekend was the start of a run that will book their place back in Europe's premier club competition. They'll have their work cut out in the lunchtime kick-off on Saturday as they welcome David Moyes' Everton side who suffered just their third defeat under his stewardship last weekend when they fell to a late defeat at home to Manchester City.

Despite having nothing to play for, Everton have been putting in some impressive performances on the road in recent weeks, culminating in a win at the City Ground two weeks ago. They'll undoubtedly make this difficult for the hosts, and a key to this has been the role of their holding midfield players who are tasked with stopping any potential counter attacks against them. This has seen Everton receive at least two cards in ten of their fifteen matches under Moyes. They have also been prone to a card in this fixture, receiving at least two cards in all of the last ten head-to-heads. Chelsea have also been picking up an increased number of cards in recent months, collecting at least two in eleven of their last fifteen. This could lead to a busy afternoon for referee Chris Kavanagh who is averaging 5.48 cards per game this season. He has brandished at least four cards in 24 of his 35 games this season, and with the history of cards between the sides, I can see that continuing. I was surprised to see even money available for there to be at least four cards in the match, and for Everton to receive at least two of those. This selection has landed in eight of the last ten meetings between the sides, and I'd be surprised if that run was to stop here.

NEWCASTLE UNITED VS IPSWICH TOWN

Relegation from the Premier League looks almost certain to be confirmed for Ipswich on Saturday afternoon when they make the trip to St James' Park to face a Newcastle side looking to make their return to the Champions League. Should the visitors upset the hosts, they'd still require results elsewhere to go their way to prevent their fate from being sealed at full time on Saturday with a minor miracle being the only thing that could save them from the drop. It was a tough afternoon in the reverse fixture for Ipswich, being on the end of a dominant Newcastle performance, and they'll fancy their chances of running up a wide margin victory once again.

The key to Newcastle's attacking threat for much of this season has been the contributions of winger Jacob Murphy, who has nine goals and thirteen assists to his name in just 2,435 minutes of football - with him averaging a goal involvement every 110 minutes. He recently landed us a 16/1 winner when he scored and assisted in the Magpies 5-0 victory over Crystal Palace, and I am keen to get him onside again here. That aforementioned selection landed in the reverse fixture, and with 11/1 on offer for him to repeat that feat, I am happy to have a small play at those odds. I was also drawn to the even money available for him to score or assist, with this landed in 14 of his last 23 appearances, with him having 19 goal contributions in that time. I feel that Newcastle could really pile on the misery for Ipswich, and should that happen, Murphy will likely be heavily involved in that.