Premier League Value Bets - 26/02/25
- JN Value Betting
- Feb 25
- 5 min read
BEST BETS:
BRENTFORD VS EVERTON:
YEHOR YARMOLIUK - TO BE CARDED - 6/1 (BET365) - 0.5PTS
JESPER LINDSTROM - TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS - 3/1 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR VS MANCHESTER CITY:
DJED SPENCE - TO BE FOULED 2+ TIMES - 21/10 (BETFAIR) - 1PT
PAPE MATAR SARR - TO BE CARDED - 17/5 (LIVESCORE BET) - 1PT
LIVERPOOL VS NEWCASTLE UNITED:
MOHAMED SALAH - TO SCORE & ASSIST - 6/1 (UNIBET) - 1PT
TRENT ALEXANDER-ARNOLD - TO BE CARDED - 19/5 (LIVESCORE BET) - 0.5PTS
Attention turns to the top of the Premier League on Wednesday evening, with five of the top six sides in action, with four of them facing off against each other. Nottingham Forest look to close the gap to second placed Arsenal, when they host them at the City Ground, whilst Liverpool welcome Newcastle to Anfield, with the Magpies looking to end the evening in third, should results go their way.
BRENTFORD VS EVERTON
Brentford are looking to tag onto the back of the chasing pack when it comes to the European places, the Bees have endured erratic home and away form this season, with them being on a five-game winless run at the Gtech Community Stadium. The visit of the Premier League's most inform side over the last five matches will not be a welcome one for Brentford, with them looking to regain home comforts. The visitors were denied a late penalty on Saturday when they relinquished a two-goal lead at home to Manchester United, but they'll be looking to secure a third straight away victory.
Christian Norgaard added Brentford's third goal on Friday evening when they dismantled Leicester. However, the Dane was substituted at half time due to concussion, and that has ruled him out of this one. His likely replacement is Ukrainian Yehor Yarmoliuk, who has deputised in midfield on a number of occasions for the Bees this season. He has picked up four cards in his 1,348 minutes of Premier League football, and against an Everton side that have seen an opposing central midfielder carded in four of their eight games under David Moyes, I am happy to side with the midfielder being carded. Given his card record, I have Yarmoliuk priced at around 17/5, so the 6/1 on offer seems generous. Referee Simon Hooper has given at least four cards in thirteen of his sixteen Premier League matches this season, and even booked Yarmoliuk in Brentford's draw with West Ham earlier in the season.
Another player who was forced off at the weekend is Norgaard's compatriot Jesper Lindstrom, David Moyes confirmed this was due to illness, and that the Danish midfielder will be fit to feature in this one. Lindstrom has been committed at least two fouls in four of his last six matches, and is averaging 1.14 fouls committed per 90 this season. This has risen to 2.10 since the arrival of new manager Moyes, and with Lindstrom committing two fouls in the reverse fixture, I am happy to have a small play on the 3/1 on offer for him to repeat that here.
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR VS MANCHESTER CITY
Tottenham survived a barrage of Ipswich pressure in the first ten minutes of their encounter on Saturday, they then compounded the Tractor Boys' misery by adding two quick-fire goals to set them on their way to a second consecutive victory. They've proven themselves as Pep Guardiola's kryptonite in recent seasons, even before the demise of City this season. A comprehensive 4-0 victory in the reverse fixture really set the alarm bells ringing at the Etihad, and they'll certainly not be fearing the visit of the Champions here. City have the chance to go third here, should other results go their way, and that would mark a return to more familiar waters.
Djed Spence has become a makeshift left back during the injury crisis that Spurs have endured this season, and he has taken to the role well. The return of Destiny Udogie from injury has left Ange Postecoglu with a conundrum given the impression that Spence has left on the side. I would imagine that he'll keep his place in the team for this one, especially given that he got himself on the scoresheet in the victory over Ipswich on Saturday. He is averaging 1.67 fouls won per 90 this season, and has been fouled at least twice in eight of his last nine matches. I was surprised to see the 21/10 on offer for that run to continue.
Given the return of Rodrigo Bentancur and James Maddison, that has seen Pape Sarr drop to the bench in recent weeks, and that is likely to continue here. However, I am happy to take a punt on Sarr to pick up a card here. Should the Senegalese midfielder not start, this selection will be void. However, if he starts, he boasts a very strong card record - especially against Manchester City. Sarr has picked up 15 cards in 4,156 minutes across the last two seasons. This includes him being carded in all three of his appearances against the visitors here. Referee Jarred Gillett has carded Sarr in three matches across the last two seasons, including the North London Derby earlier in the campaign.
LIVERPOOL VS NEWCASTLE UNITED
The gap at the top of the Premier League stretched to eleven points following Liverpool's comfortable victory at the Etihad on Sunday, and the celebrations from their players seemed to suggest they felt that was their biggest step towards the Premier League title so far. Newcastle also enjoyed a statement victory on Sunday with them getting the better of Nottingham Forest in a thrilling encounter that ended 4-3. Both sides will be keen to get a feel of the opposition here, with them doing battle at Wembley in the Carabao Cup Final just 18 days on from this one.
For not the first time this season, the key to Liverpool's win on Sunday was Mohamed Salah. The Egyptian became the first player to record multiple seasons with 40 goal contributions (goal or assist), he notched his 25th goal of the season and his 16th assist, with him sitting comfortably at the top of both rankings. That was the eleventh time this season that Salah had scored and assisted in the same game, which is 41% of his league starts. He has managed that in his last two appearances against Newcastle, and with 6/1 on offer for him to score and assist here, I am happy to get stuck in.
The most uncomfortable part of Liverpool's afternoon against Manchester City was for right back Trent Alexander-Arnold. He had a tough outing against Jeremy Doku, but still managed to keep the Belgian at bay. Given that he is likely to face off against Anthony Gordon in this one, another difficult evening will be on the cards. Gordon was fouled five times in the reverse fixture, and despite not starting, Alexander-Arnold still picked up a card - that was his third straight yellow card in appearances against Newcastle, and I am happy to take a small punt on Trent making that four in a row. Gordon is averaging 2.19 fouls won per 90 this season, and with referee Chris Kavanagh giving an average of 5.41 cards per game in the Premier League this campaign, it's likely that any misdemeanour from Alexander-Arnold will be penalised.
