Premier League Value Bets - 25/02/25
- JN Value Betting
- Feb 24
- 6 min read
BEST BETS:
BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION VS AFC BOURNEMOUTH:
JUSTIN KLUIVERT - TO HAVE 1+ SHOT ON TARGET - 7/10 (UNIBET) - 1.5PTS
CRYSTAL PALACE VS ASTON VILLA:
MAXENCE LACROIX - TO HAVE 1+ SHOT - 21/20 (BETWAY) - 1PT
WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS VS FULHAM:
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE - 4/5 (BET365) - 2PTS
CHELSEA VS SOUTHAMPTON:
CHELSEA - TO WIN & BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE - 13/10 (BET365) - 1PT
JOE ARIBO - TO MAKE 2+ TACKLES - 3/4 (CORAL) - 2PTS
JOE ARIBO - TO MAKE 3+ TACKLES - 9/4 (CORAL) - 1PT
JOE ARIBO - TO MAKE 4+ TACKLES - 3/4 (CORAL) - 0.5PTS JOE ARIBO - TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS - 10/3 (BET365) - 0.5PTS
JOE ARIBO - TO BE CARDED - 5/1 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS
The Premier League enters it's Matchweek 27 with the table starting to take shape at the top and the bottom. A title race that has been red flagged no sooner than it started with Liverpool holding an eleven point lead with just twelve matches left to play, and a relegation battle that looks all but over for the three promoted sides for the second successive season. That being said, the almost certain introduction of a fifth Champions League spot has given us an intriguing race for those places, and that's where we'll have to find our entertainment in the final three months of the season.
BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION VS AFC BOURNEMOUTH
It's another South Coast tussle for Brighton, just three days on from them strolling to a 4-0 victory away at Southampton, a result that leaves them just four points off the Premier League's top four. A win over fellow South Coast side Bournemouth would leave them level on points with the Cherries, with both sides harbouring hopes of European football for next season. Bournemouth are seven unbeaten on the road in the Premier League, last tasting defeat away at Brentford back in November. That form will leave them confident of leaving the AmEx with something, which would maintain their advantage in the hunt for the European spots.
The Cherries' top scorer Justin Kluivert has enjoyed his best goalscoring season of his career, and has helped catapult them into the European equation. He has looked the biggest threat in this Bournemouth attack, which has seen him bag eleven league goals - including two hat-tricks along the way. I am going to keep it simple with him here, he is priced at 7/10 to have a shot on target in this one, something which he has done in 17 of his 21 Premier League starts this season - including the reverse fixture against The Seagulls. The Dutchman is on penalties as well, which is always a bonus given the frequency in which they're awarded nowadays.
CRYSTAL PALACE VS ASTON VILLA
Crystal Palace rounded their season off at home to Aston Villa last season, thrashing The Villains 5-0. They haven't enjoyed the same level of form this season, but it has certainly picked up in recent months, and they'll be keen to get the better of Villa, once again (having done so in the Carabao Cup earlier in the season). Unai Emery's Aston Villa come into this one off the back of taking four points out of Liverpool and Chelsea last week, and will look to get themselves amongst the Champions League candidates with a win here.
I have turned my attention to the shots markets again here, with Palace's French centre back Maxence Lacroix looking overpriced. Lacroix thought he had got himself on the scoresheet at Craven Cottage on Saturday in his sides 2-0 win at Fulham. However, his effort was marked as an own-goal for Joachim Andersen. He has however recorded a shot in 16 of his 23 Premier League appearances this season, with him having eight shots in his last five league matches. He did also have a shot in the reverse fixture at Villa Park, and for this to be odds against seems generous.
WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS VS FULHAM
Three points on the road at ten-man Bournemouth on Saturday was enough to pull Wolves five points clear of the Premier League drop zone, and leaves the Midlands outfit looking in a strong position to maintain their Premier League status for next season. They welcome a Fulham side to Molineux who feel that they'll need to win this one in order to keep up the pace being set by the sides ahead of them in the race for European football.
Wolves recorded a shock 4-1 win at Craven Cottage in November, and I feel that goals could be on the cards here, once again. The last four meetings between the sides have seen both teams score, and I am happy to get stuck into the 4/5 on offer for that to become five. Wolves have scored in ten of their twelve home league matches this season, with them scoring in all but five of their 26 Premier League matches. Fulham also boast a strong goalscoring record on the road, getting on the scoresheet in eleven of their twelve away matches - only failing to do so on the opening night of the season away at Old Trafford. They have only failed to score in four of their 26 matches this season, and with both sides scoring in the majority of their matches this season, the price on offer looks too large.
CHELSEA VS SOUTHAMPTON
Having won just two of their last ten Premier League outings, Chelsea will be relishing the visit of bottom side Southampton to Stamford Bridge. Having briefly thrown their hat into the ring in the title race, the wheels have well and truly come off for the Blues, and they are now sat in seventh place coming into this one. Should they fail to get three points here, the alarm bells would start ringing, with Southampton sitting on just nine points as we edge towards March. The introduction of Ivan Juric to the St Mary's dugout seems to have made no difference, with Championship football looking all but a certainty, once again.
Despite the struggles of the Saints this season, I feel that they could at least get themselves on the scoresheet here, and will look to utilise that in manufacturing a better price on the hosts. Chelsea are best priced 2/11 to get the win here. However, they are 13/10 to win the match and both teams to score. Southampton have scored in all four of their away matches under Juric, and have scored in eight of their thirteen Premier League matches on the road this season. Travelling to a Chelsea side who have only kept one clean sheet at home in the league this season, they'll be confident of grabbing a goal here.
Saturday's home defeat to Brighton saw midfielder Joe Aribo earn a start at centre back, and despite the resounding victory for the visitors, I can see the Nigerian being deployed here again. There was a trial of this in the second half of the Saints' defeat against Bournemouth the week prior to the Brighton match, and it looks set to continue with the absence of Jan Bednarek being confirmed by Juric in his pre-match press conference. Aribo made six tackles in the aforementioned fixture against Bournemouth, and backed this up with four on Saturday against Brighton, I am keen to get involved in him in the tackles markets for this one, with a start at centre back likely. Aribo is averaging 1.87 tackles made per 90 this season, which has raised to 2.16 under Juric. Given the man-to-man marking that the Croatian manager deploys, it sees his centre halves make a large number of tackles, and Aribo could be the man to continue that for us here. With 9/4 and 11/2 on offer for three and four tackles respectively, I am happy to have a small punt that Aribo is priced up incorrectly based on his likely defensive role. That defensive role also saw him commit two fouls on Saturday, and with the attacking options Chelsea have at their disposal, I can see Aribo being caught out in this one. I am happy to have a small play on the Nigerian to commit 2+ fouls again, and will take the 5/1 on offer for him to pick up a card as well.
