Premier League Value Bets - 16/01/25
- JN Value Betting
- Jan 15
- 4 min read
BEST BETS:
IPSWICH TOWN VS BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION:
IPSWICH TOWN - TO HAVE 10+ SHOTS - 4/5 (LIVESCORE BET) - 3PTS
LIAM DELAP - TO HAVE 4+ FOUL INVOLVEMENTS - 6/5 (PADDY POWER) - 1PT
MANCHESTER UNITED VS SOUTHAMPTON:
NOUSSAIR MAZRAOUI - TO MAKE 3+ TACKLES - 21/20 (CORAL) - 2PTS
NOUSSAIR MAZRAOUI - TO MAKE 4+ TACKLES - 12/5 (CORAL) - 1PT
LESLEY UGOCHUKWU - TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS - 2/1 (BETFAIR) - 1PT
Just two weeks ago Ruben Amorim admitted that his Manchester United side were in a relegation battle, they now face off against bottom side Southampton in what the Portuguese manager must be considering a relegation six-pointer. Elsewhere in the Premier League relegation battle, Ipswich will look to haul themselves out of the Premier League drop zone with a positive result at home to Fabian Hurzeler's Brighton.
I've identified some value bets for Thursday's Premier League action below.
IPSWICH TOWN VS BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION
Kieran McKenna has started to get a fine tune out of his Ipswich side and they'll be hopeful that they can take themselves out of the relegation zone for the first time since the start of November. Brighton head to Portman Road on the back of four consecutive draws and will be looking to get themselves back amongst the European conversation with a victory here.
Home form can be the foundation for a side who are looking to stay in the Premier League. However, that has not been the case so far for Ipswich, having picked up their first home win at the tenth time of asking against Chelsea last time out at Portman Road. That being said, the performances weren't as much of a cause for concern, just more getting across the line. An angle I am keen to exploit is Ipswich recording at 10+ shots, the Tractor Boys have had at least ten shots in seven of their ten Premier League home games - only failing to do so against Liverpool (7), Crystal Palace (9) and Chelsea (9). Brighton have seen their opposition record 10+ shots in eight of their ten on the road and I wouldn't put anybody off getting stuck into the 4/5 on offer, with this being priced as short as 1/4 elsewhere.
The host's top scorer, Liam Delap has been a cornerstone of a large majority of the positive work that Ipswich have done this season. Whilst the young striker hasn't unleashed a torpedo long throw that his dad offered, he has many factors that have aided Ipswich. The main one of these being his physicality, the striker has certainly made his presence felt, leading both the Fouls Committed and Fouls Won charts for Ipswich this season. I was drawn to the price of Delap to have 4+ foul involvements - meaning he can either commit a foul or be fouled for it to count. The 6/5 on offer with Betfair/Paddy Power is well in advance of the 4/5 that is on offer with Sky Bet. This has landed in 11 of the striker's 18 Premier League starts this season - including the reverse fixture where Delap was substituted before the hour mark. Coupled with the recent up-turn in Ipswich's form, it has landed in four of the last six as well.
MANCHESTER UNITED VS SOUTHAMPTON
A draw at Anfield, followed by FA Cup progression away at Arsenal capped off a fine week for Manchester United by recent standards. However, it remains to be seen if Ruben Amorim can manufacture that same level of performance from his side against inferior opposition. Ivan Juric's Southampton come into this one having tasted victory for the first time in two months, after they dispatched Championship Swansea City at St Mary's in the FA Cup Third Round. A much harder task awaits them here back at Premier League level, and the clock is ticking for Juric to prevent his side from breaking further unwanted Premier League records.
Both of these sides are still in transition following managerial changes so getting a hold on any trends has proved difficult. However, one constant throughout the Erik ten Hag era and the start of Ruben Amorim's reign is the ability of Noussair Mazraoui at making tackles, the Moroccan is averaging 3.71 completed tackles per 90 this season and has made at least three tackles in 17 of his 26 starts for the Red Devils. One pattern that has become apparent during Ivan Juric's short reign as Southampton boss is the stats of the opposing right sided defender making tackles - in all three Premier League matches, the right back or right wing back has made at least three tackles against the Saints. Given the stats, I am happy to have a play on the 21/20 on Mazraoui to make 3+ tackles and the 12/5 of him to make 4+.
The Ivan Juric pressing style of play has yet to be seen in full effect by his Southampton side. However, in the opening three Premier League matches we have seen his Southampton side commit 15, 19 and 10 fouls. I feel this will only get stronger as the Croatian gets his hands on his team. A player who has committing more fouls as a result of this is Lesley Ugochukwu, the Chelsea loanee found minutes hard to come by under Juric's predecessor Russell Martin. However, he has become a foundation in the Juric starting eleven. Ugochukwu has committed 2+ fouls in all three of his starts under Juric and I back this to continue here at 2/1. This price feels massive, with it being best priced 4/5 elsewhere. An opposing central midfield player has committed 2+ fouls in nine of Ruben Amorim's thirteen games in charge of Man United.
