Premier League Value Bets - 15/01/25
- JN Value Betting
- Jan 14
- 5 min read
Updated: Jan 15
BEST BETS:
EVERTON VS ASTON VILLA:
OREL MANGALA - TO HAVE 1+ SHOT ON TARGET FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA - 5/2 (SKY BET) - 1PT
IDRISSA GUEYE - TO HAVE 1+ SHOT ON TARGET FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA - 3/1 (SKY BET) - 1PT
OREL MANGALA - TO SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA - 28/1 (BET365) - 0.5PTS
IDRISSA GUEYE - TO SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA - 18/1 (BET365) - 0.5PTS
LEICESTER CITY VS CRYSTAL PALACE:
JORDAN AYEW - TO WIN 3+ FOULS - 11/10 (BETFAIR) - 1PT
JORDAN AYEW - TO WIN 3+ FOULS & TO BE CARDED - 6.17/1 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS
NEWCASTLE UNITED VS WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS:
RAYAN AIT-NOURI - TO BE CARDED - 3/1 (SKY BET) - 1PT
ARSENAL VS TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR
DEJAN KULUSEVSKI - TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS - 5/6 (LIVESCORE BET) - 2PTS
DEJAN KULUSEVSKI - TO COMMIT 3+ FOULS - 13/5 (BET VICTOR) - 0.5PTS
DEJAN KULUSEVSKI - TO BE CARDED - 16/5 (BET VICTOR) - 1PT
It's the 31st October 2009 and third placed Arsenal host North London rivals Tottenham Hotspur, whilst David Moyes' Everton (who find themselves in the lower half of the table) host European chasing Aston Villa. Fast forward 15 years and third placed Arsenal host North London rivals Tottenham Hotspur, whilst David Moyes' Everton (who find themselves in the lower half of the table) host European chasing Aston Villa. They say that a week is a long time in football, well it turns out that even 15 years isn't.
I've identified some value bets for Wednesday's Premier League action below.
EVERTON VS ASTON VILLA
David Moyes returns to the Everton dugout after an eleven and a half year hiatus with his side just one point above the Premier League drop zone. They host an Aston Villa side who have struggled on their travels of late, with only one win in their last seven on the road. It's hard to tell what David Moyes can get out of this Everton side at such short notice. However, it's unquestionable that he'll have the support of the Goodison Park crowd from the word go.
Analysing a game where a manager takes the reins for the first time is difficult, so I have opted at looking into what David Moyes' last West Ham side stood out in, and one thing I noticed was the number of shots his midfielders took from outside the area. Coupling that with analysing the stats of the Everton midfielders and their shooting habits, I have found an angle. Last season, Mohammed Kudus, James Ward-Prowse & Said Benrahma all had half of their shots from outside the area under David Moyes, and coming into Everton at this stage of the season, he inherits Orel Mangala and Idrissa Gueye who both take most of their shots from outside of the area. Mangala has taken 13 of his 16 shots from outside the area this season, including three on Thursday night in their victory over Peterborough in the FA Cup. Meanwhile, Idrissa Gueye has seen 12 of his 18 shots come from outside the penalty area. Given these stats, I am happy to get stuck in on each of them to have a shot on target from outside the area at 5/2 and 3/1 respectively. Due to the price differential in the to score from outside the area, I have had a small play at 28/1 for Mangala and 18/1 for Gueye.
LEICESTER CITY VS CRYSTAL PALACE
Leicester ended their wretched run of form with a 6-2 FA Cup victory over Queens Park Rangers on Saturday and will be hoping to transfer their goalscoring form back to the Premier League as they attempt to haul themselves out of the relegation zone. Their opponents, Crystal Palace will attempt to pull themselves clear of said relegation zone and start to adjust their focus onto the Premier League top half. They've only tasted defeat in two of their last eleven games, with both of those coming in the same week against Arsenal. They'll head into this one at the King Power full of confidence.
One man who will be familiar to the travelling fans is Leicester's Jordan Ayew, the Ghanian forward swapped Selhurst Park for the King Power in the summer. Ayew was the most fouled player in the 2022/23 season, and followed that up by being the second most fouled player last campaign - averaging the most fouls won per 90 across the whole of the Premier League. He is averaging 3.06 fouls won per 90 this season and I am backing him to continue this here. The price for Ayew to win 3+ fouls is 11/10 and is best priced 4/6 elsewhere, so I am happy to take advantage of this inflated price. There has been six occasions in Ayew's nine starts in the Premier League this season where has been fouled at least three times and he has been carded in half of them, suggesting an element of retaliation. This also landed in the reverse fixture and I am happy to have a small play on it doing so again here.
NEWCASTLE UNITED VS WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS
Newcastle capped off a successful week with progress in the FA Cup on Sunday with a comfortable victory over League Two Bromley. They return to league action by welcoming Vitor Pereira's Wolves to St. James' Park and will be looking to continue their assault on the Premier League's top four. Wolves sit outside the bottom three on goal difference and will look to return to winning ways in league action, following a comfortable defeat to Nottingham Forest.
Referee Darren England has been allocated this one, and the official is averaging 4.95 cards per game this season. The yellow card markets seem like the perfect angle to get stuck into here. Newcastle are averaging 2.34 yellow cards per game this season, with Wolves averaging 2.33. I can see there being at least four cards here and one player who has a habit of being carded in this fixture is Wolves wing back Rayan Ait-Nouri. The Algerian has been carded 14 times across the last two seasons, and has been carded in his last three matches against Newcastle. These cards have been for fouling, dissent and time wasting, giving us plenty of opportunities for the ill-disciplined wing back to find his way into the referee's book.
ARSENAL VS TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR
Arsenal have all but extinguished their domestic trophy hopes within the space of a week following defeats to Newcastle and Man United. They'll be hoping to take advantage of the slight slip in Liverpool's form to close the gap to the Reds at the top of the Premier League. They welcome North London rivals Tottenham to the Emirates who are fresh off the back of being taken to extra-time by National League Tamworth in the FA Cup. Spurs will be looking to capitalise on a wounded Arsenal. However, they're still suffering from an ever-growing injury list.
Tottenham will look to draw inspiration from playmaker Dejan Kulusevski with the Swede having scored six goals in his last ten matches. I do feel that Kulusevski could be involved in this one, however, more from a discipline perspective. He has picked up a card in his last two appearances in a North London Derby, and has committed at least three fouls in three of his five matches against the Gunners. He could be up against Hale End product Myles Lewis-Skelly who is averaging 3.23 fouls won per 90 this season - including being fouled 3+ times in his last three starts. Kulusevski is committing an average of 1.74 fouls per 90 this season and I back this continue here against Arsenal.
