top of page

Premier League Value Bets - 01/04/25

ree

BEST BETS:

ARSENAL VS FULHAM:


JURRIEN TIMBER - TO MAKE 2+ TACKLES - 17/20 (CORAL) - 1PT


NOTTINGHAM FOREST VS MANCHESTER UNITED:


PATRICK DORGU - TO BE FOULED 2+ TIMES - 8/11 (BETFAIR) - 1.5PTS

PATRICK DORGU - TO BE FOULED 3+ TIMES - 21/10 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS

After a two-week hiatus, the Premier League returns to action this midweek, with us entering the final ten games of the season. Leaders Liverpool meet their cross-city rivals in the Merseyside derby on Wednesday evening, with them sure to be licking their wounds from their Carabao Cup defeat just prior to the international break. Tuesday night's action gets underway with Arsenal hosting Fulham, who exited the FA Cup to London rivals Crystal Palace at the weekend, while Nottingham Forest will be able to celebrate progressing to the semi-finals of that competition when they welcome Manchester United to the City Ground.

ARSENAL VS FULHAM

Due to the gap between Arsenal and league leaders Liverpool looking unassailable, you could forgive them for having most of their attention on next week's Champions League Quarter-Final against Real Madrid. Mikel Arteta has confirmed that Bukayo Saka is in contention for a return to the starting lineup for this one, giving the hosts a massive boost. They have failed to beat Fulham in their last three meetings, but they'll fancy their chances against a Fulham side who were swatted aside in the FA Cup this weekend. The Cottagers didn't really get going, and were comfortably beaten by Crystal Palace, and will have to bounce back here if they are to keep pace with the other sides in the European places.


Injuries to Riccardo Calafiori and Takehiro Tomiyasu mean that Jurrien Timber will likely lineup in a back four with Gabriel, William Saliba and Myles Lewis-Skelly in this one, and I am backing the Dutch international to maintain his impressive record when it comes to making tackles. Timber is averaging 2.04 tackles per 90 this season, and has made at least two tackles in thirteen of his last fifteen starts. The 17/20 on offer seems a generous price given the stats to support it, and I am happy to get stuck in on this.

NOTTINGHAM FOREST VS MANCHESTER UNITED

The dream season for Nottingham Forest has continued this weekend when they reached the FA Cup Semi-Finals thanks to a penalty shootout victory over Brighton. That was Forest's third shootout victory of the season in that competition, and they are in the hunt for their first silverware since winning the League Cup 35 years ago. Manchester United are the visitors to the City Ground as Forest look to consolidate themselves in the Champions League places. The main priority for the visitors appears to be the Europa League - with that being Man United's only realistic route into European football next season. That should give the buoyant Forest side the edge in this one, but I am not willing to get stuck in at the prices, with Man United only tasting defeat in three of their last seventeen matches.


Man United will be able to call upon Patrick Dorgu in the Premier League once again, following the Dane's three-match suspension for a red card against Ipswich last month. He looks to suit the Ruben Amorim system well, and looks as if he will bed in well at Old Trafford. I am keen to get him onside in the player fouls markets for this one. Dorgu has been fouled at least twice in all six of his starts for his new side, with that stretching to fifteen of his last eighteen starts for club and country. I was shocked to see that this is still a reasonable price given the record of Dorgu. He is averaging 4.01 fouls won per 90 since signing in January, and with 21/10 on offer for him to be fouled 3+ times in this one, I am happy to have a small play, with the main play being 2+.


 
 
bottom of page