Player Card Subscription Selections - 16/01/25
- JN Value Betting
- Jan 15
- 4 min read
PLAYER CARD SUBSCRIPTION SELECTIONS:
PREMIER LEAGUE:
IPSWICH TOWN VS BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION - CARLOS BALEBA - TO BE CARDED - 3.90 (LIVESCORE BET) - 1% OF YOUR BANKROLL
IPSWICH TOWN VS BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION - YASIN AJARI - TO BE CARDED - 5.00 (BET365) - 1% OF YOUR BANKROLL
COPA DEL REY:
REAL SOCIEDAD VS RAYO VALLECANO - JON ARAMBURU - TO BE CARDED - 4.10 (LIVESCORE BET) - 0.5% OF YOUR BANKROLL
REAL SOCIEDAD VS RAYO VALLECANO - UNAI LOPEZ - TO BE CARDED - 3.90 (LIVESCORE BET) - 1% OF YOUR BANKROLL
REAL MADRID VS CELTA VIGO - VINICIUS JUNIOR - TO BE CARDED - 4.33 (SKY BET) - 0.5% OF YOUR BANKROLL
REAL MADRID VS CELTA VIGO - ILAIX MORIBA - TO BE CARDED - 3.10 (BET365) - 1% OF YOUR BANKROLL
IPSWICH TOWN VS BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION
Kieran McKenna's Ipswich appear to be finding their groove in the top flight for the first time since their back-to-back promotions that have taken them to the Premier League. They followed a win against Chelsea up by taking a point from in-form Fulham at Craven Cottage. They'll be hoping to avoid defeat against Brighton for the second time this season, following their 0-0 stalemate at the AmEx earlier in the season - a result that could take them out of the Premier League drop zone. A run of four straight draws has seen Brighton drop into the bottom half of the league, and they'll be hoping to return to winning ways and back into the top half.
Under Fabian Hurzeler holding midfielders Carlos Baleba and Yasin Ayari have both seen a rise in the number of fouls that they are being forced to commit in this Brighton system. Baleba is averaging 1.74 fouls committed per 90, while Ayari has committed 1.77. Their role of breaking up attacks for the opposition has been clear to see based on the stats and the number of cards the pair are receiving. Against an Ipswich side who successfully frustrated Brighton earlier in the season, I can see their role coming to the fore here. An opposing central midfielder has received a card against Ipswich in seven of their last twelve matches and I am happy to back that to continue here. Baleba has received 13 cards since his arrival from Lille at the start of last season, and I am surprised to see 3.90 being on offer for him to make that 14 here. Ayari has picked up 10 cards in his 2,365 minutes in the last two seasons and with the number of fouls the Swede is committing, I can see him drawing the attention of referee Tony Harrington here.
REAL SOCIEDAD VS RAYO VALLECANO
Both Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano enter this one in good form, with Sociedad having lost just once in their last nine, while Vallecano are unbeaten in their last seven. Real Sociedad have the record for the shortest reign as Copa del Rey champions, winning the 2019/20 tournament, where the final was played in 2021, only to be dethroned by 2020/21 champions Barcelona just 14 days later. Vallecano will be hoping to make their second Copa del Rey Quarter-Final in their history, after reaching the semi-finals in 2021/22.
Given the strength of the opposition, I would imagine that both sides will keep rotation to a minimum. One player who appears a certainty to lineup is Jon Aramburu, the Venezuelan is suspended for Sociedad's next La Liga game, so I can see him starting here. He has picked up seven cards in his 1,679 minutes this season and I am happy to back that to continue here with 4.10 on offer. Due to this being a Copa del Rey tie, I will keep the stakes for him to be carded lower as Sociedad are yet to receive a card in their three cup ties this season - albeit, they were all against lower league opposition.
Vallecano midfielder Unai Lopez has been carded in three of his five starts against Real Sociedad for his current club. The former Athletic Bilbao midfielder will undoubtedly like to make his presence felt against their Basque rivals. I am backing him to pick up another card against Sociedad given his previous record against them, coupled with his card record across the last two seasons, where he has picked up 15 cards in 3,267 minutes. This should leave Lopez priced around 3.40, so I am happy to get involved in the 3.90 on offer.
REAL MADRID VS CELTA VIGO
Real Madrid will hope to return to winning ways here, following their collapse against Barcelona in the Spanish Super Cup Final on Sunday. A promising start was quickly turned on its head when Real went in at half time 4-1 down. They face a Celta Vigo side here who have won four of their last six, albeit two of those victories came against lower league opposition in this competition. They'll be looking to take advantage of a wounded Madrid side and make it into the last eight.
Real's volatile forward Vinicius Junior should play here, prior to his two game La Liga suspension following a sending off against Valencia in their last league outing. Whilst this is a game that could get away from Celta early on, I am happy to have a play on Vinicius to pick up a card given the combustable nature of the Brazilian. Carded for dissent against Barcelona, following on from his La Liga dismissal, this took his card total to ten cards this season, where he has served two suspensions already (one in La Liga and one in the Champions League) with another one pending.
Ex-Barcelona midfielder Ilaix Moriba is no stranger to the referee's notebook with the young Guinean picking up ten cards in his 1,587 minutes since the start of last season. Moriba has enjoyed a good recent run in the Celta side with him starting six of their last eight matches. Referee Jose Munuera Montero is averaging 4.80 cards per game in the last two seasons, with him producing 38 cards in his eight Copa del Rey matches, keeping close to his 4.80 card average.