Player Card Subscription Selections - 04/01/25 - 05/01/25

JN Value Betting
Jan 3
7 min read

Updated: Jan 9

PLAYER CARD SUBSCRIPTION SELECTIONS:

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR VS NEWCASTLE UNITED - YVES BISSOUMA - TO BE CARDED - 3.15 (LIVESCORE BET) - 2% OF YOUR BANKROLL

ASTON VILLA VS LEICESTER CITY - BOUBAKARY SOUMARE - TO BE CARDED - 3.40 (LIVESCORE BET) - 1% OF YOUR BANKROLL

ASTON VILLA VS LEICESTER CITY - FACUNDO BUONANOTTE - TO BE CARDED - 4.10 (LIVESCORE BET) - 0.5% OF YOUR BANKROLL

MANCHESTER CITY VS WEST HAM UNITED - EDSON ALVAREZ - TO BE CARDED - 3.25 (SKY BET) - 1% OF YOUR BANKROLL

MANCHESTER CITY VS WEST HAM UNITED - GUIDO RODRIGUEZ - TO BE CARDED - 3.90 (LIVESCORE BET) - 1% OF YOUR BANKROLL

SOUTHAMPTON VS BRENTFORD - TYLER DIBLING - TO BE CARDED - 5.00 (SKY BET) - 0.5% OF YOUR BANKROLL

FULHAM VS IPSWICH TOWN - SASA LUKIC - TO BE CARDED - 4.80 (LIVESCORE BET) - 1% OF YOUR BANKROLL

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR VS NEWCASTLE UNITED

Ange Postecoglu's inconsistent Spurs side take on an in-form Newcastle, who are revelling of the back of five straight wins in all competitions. This hasn't been an enjoyable recent fixture for Spurs, only winning one of their previous five H2Hs against the Magpies.

In what could be a frustrating afternoon for Tottenham, I can see a card favourite in Yves Bissouma finding his way into the referee's notebook. The Malian has picked up 20 cards across the last two seasons, including his last two starts against Newcastle. In fact, Newcastle are the side where Bissouma has picked up the most cards in his career - with 5 yellow cards and 1 red card in 11 appearances (2 of these appearances did only last 10 minutes). Given the absence of Rodrigo Bentancur in the Tottenham midfield (where the Uruguayan must serve another suspension - this time for his accumulation of yellow cards), I feel Bissouma could be set to play a large majority of this one, which gives us a good chance of this landing.

Bissouma is averaging 1.45 fouls committed per 90 across the last two seasons and against a Newcastle side who really could make them pay in the transition, I feel Bissouma could be the man who is committing fouls that leaves the referee no option but to dish out a card. Another thing to support this selection is the record of starting central midfielders against Newcastle this season, with at least one of those being carded in 15 of their 23 matches.

ASTON VILLA VS LEICESTER CITY

European exertions seem to have hampered Aston Villa's season, leaving Unai Emery's men in 9th place at the half-way point - that being said, they do only sit 6 points outside of the top four, which can surely be seen as a successful season, given their almost certain qualification for the Champions League knockout stages. A contrasting season has been the case for visitors Leicester City, who find themselves second bottom after a string of four straight defeats under new boss Ruud van Nistelrooy.

One constant in what seems an ever-changing Leicester midfield has been Boubakary Soumare. The Frenchman has finally found a consistent run in the side following on from a loan move to Sevilla last year which was preceded by patchy runs in his two previous Premier League campaigns with the foxes. Soumare has started eight times for Leicester in the Premier League this season and has been carded in five of those eight starts. I can see this run continuing on Saturday afternoon against an Aston Villa side that has seen a starting central midfielder pick up a card in 7 of their last 15.

A bright spark in what has been a tough season thus far for Leicester has been loanee Facundo Buonanotte, he has been one of the more creative outlets for the Foxes and he was rewarded with only his second start under van Nistelrooy when they faced Manchester City on Sunday and I can see this continuing against Villa. Buonanotte has averaged 1.82 fouls per 90 for Leicester this season, and is never too far from the referee's attention. I feel that the price on offer of 4.10 for the Argentinian to be carded is very generous and am happy to take a punt given this is priced as short as 2.15 elsewhere. His record of 14 yellow cards across just 2,997 minutes in the last two seasons suggest that this price should be closer to 3.30.

MANCHESTER CITY VS WEST HAM UNITED

Just a second win in 14 matches for Manchester City has started discussions as to whether the Premier League's dominant force are back on track. However, that win did come against a hapless Leicester side who did cause them problems on occasion and I, for one will be holding off on jumping back on the Manchester City bandwagon until a few more results follow. That could be sooner rather than later given their upcoming fixtures against West Ham and Salford. West Ham come into this one off the back of a hammering at the hands of Liverpool and won't be relishing facing Manchester City, even if they are out of sorts. Julien Lopetegui's men have failed to beat Manchester City in 21 fixtures (excluding a penalty victory in the EFL Cup in 2021), a run stretching back to the pre-Guardiola Man City in 2015.

In recent appearances, the holding midfielders within the West Ham ranks have picked up cards when facing Manchester City. Two live chances for Saturday's fixture are Edson Alvarez and Guido Rodriguez. Given the return from suspension for Tomas Soucek, it is likely that only one of these two (at most) will start for the Hammers, but I am keen to have them both covered as they both have very good records when it comes to picking up cards (especially against Saturday's opposition). Edson Alvarez is never too far away from the referee's notebook, with the Mexican picking up 25 cards since the start of last season - which includes 2 cards in 3 appearances against Man City. This leaves Alvarez quoting a price of around 2.85. However, I was surprised to see the 3.25 on offer. Given the possibility that this could be over as a contest relatively early, I am keen to not get too carried away and just leave this as a 1% selection.

The second of our two options, Guido Rodriguez is another fresh back from a suspension in the West Ham ranks and could slot straight back into the side following the drubbing at the hands of Liverpool, in his absence. Rodriguez was carded in the reverse fixture earlier in the season, and should be around 3.50 for a card in tomorrow's fixture by my calculations, which makes the price of 3.90 being offered an attractive proposition. The Argentinian is averaging 1.56 fouls per 90 this season (including 2 against Man City) and I feel like this could be enough to see Rodriguez get the attention of referee Michael Salisbury - who is averaging 4 cards per game this season.

SOUTHAMPTON VS BRENTFORD

The introduction of Ivan Juric at Southampton may have stopped Southampton from being the Premier League's whipping boys. However, it is yet to garner any points from their opening two matches together and they'll feel like a 'travel sick' Brentford visiting St Mary's will be the perfect opportunity to gain three points, given the Bees' inability to pick-up many points on the road this season, with them only producing two points on their travels. Their away form is of stark contrast to their home form and they'll be hoping to lean on this when they visit the league's bottom side.

As already mentioned, a change in the Southampton dugout has resulted in a drastic change in their style-of-play. The pressing style of Ivan Juric is being implemented on this Saints side and this can be seen in the number of fouls that they're committing in their two matches under Juric - they've committed 15 fouls against West Ham on Boxing Day and 19 against Crystal Palace on Sunday, I can see this continuing here against Brentford. One player who could be at the heart of this is Tyler Dibling - one of the shining lights in what has been a dark season for the Saints, Dibling has found himself committing a large number of fouls, averaging 1.69 fouls per game. Brentford could find themselves playing on the break at St Mary's on Saturday afternoon and Dibling is a prime candidate to commit some cynical fouls to prevent any Brentford counter attacks. The youngster has already served a suspension owing to his accumulation of yellow cards this season, and should be priced up at around 3.85. Therefore, I am happy to have a small play on his price of 5.00.

FULHAM VS IPSWICH TOWN

Fulham have been enjoying a brilliant season under Marco Silva and kept this going when recording a first victory at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea in 23 matches on Boxing Day. They lost only once in their last eleven and will be welcoming a trip from Ipswich. That being said, the Tractor Boys come into this one off the back of their own victory against Chelsea and will be looking to build on this and climb out of the relegation places here.

One of the key men in the Fulham ranks is Sasa Lukic, who has recently come back into the side following both injury and suspension. The Serbian international is a physical member of the Fulham side, filling the void left by Joao Palhinha when he departed for Bayern Munich during the summer. Lukic is no stranger to a robust challenge, with him averaging 2.37 fouls per 90 this season. This has led to him picking up 7 cards in his 13 Premier League starts this term. Analysing this record of cards since the start of last season, he has picked up 17 cards and should be priced up at around 3.90, so am happy to take advantage of the 4.80 on offer. Further strengthening the case of Lukic here is that he was cautioned in the reverse fixture against Ipswich back in August.