PDC World Matchplay 2025 - Outright Preview
- JN Value Betting
- Jul 18
- 6 min read
Updated: Jul 20
BEST BETS:
LUKE LITTLER - TO WIN THE TOURNAMENT - 9/4 (PRICED UP) - 1.5PTS WIN
GERWYN PRICE - TO WIN THE TOURNAMENT - 17/2 (SPREADEX) - 1PT WIN
GARY ANDERSON - TO WIN THE TOURNAMENT - 22/1 (PRICED UP) - 0.5PTS E/W (2 PLACES)
JONNY CLAYTON - TO WIN THE TOURNAMENT - 25/1 (BETFRED) - 0.25PTS E/W (4 PLACES)
JONNY CLAYTON - TO WIN QUARTER 2 - 5/1 (BET VICTOR) - 0.75PTS
The best 32 darts players descend on the Winter Gardens in Blackpool this weekend hoping to get their hands on the Phil Taylor Trophy, by landing the World Matchplay title. The top sixteen players in the PDC Order of Merit are joined by the next sixteen players on the Pro Tour Order of Merit, to form a field of 32.
The Matchplay is often regarded as darts' biggest major outside of the World Championships, with the long-leg format usually allowing the cream to rise to the top. This being proven by Phil Taylor getting his hands on the title a record sixteen times - hence the trophy being named after him since 2018.
There has already been much talk about the field for this year's event with 2023 World Champion Michael Smith missing the cut due to his recent slump in form, with him requiring a Semi-Final finish at least at the recent Players' Championship 21 event. However, Bully Boy was defeated in the First Round, sealing his fate for this major.
At the head of the market, is the World No. 2 LUKE LITTLER, who is looking to record his first win at the tournament at the second attempt - following on from his First Round exit to Michael van Gerwen last year. Given the prodigies rise through the rankings, he enters the tournament as a seed this year, meaning that he has been handed a more favourable draw than facing a former three-time champion. Littler is well clear at the top of the charts for the yearly averages with a remarkable 100.58 average across his 184 matches in the last twelve months. That has allowed him to boast the best win-to-loss ratio on the tour as well, winning 142 of those aforementioned matches.
Despite his more favourable draw this time around, Littler still does have a tricky opening tie to negotiate against Ryan Searle. However, Heavy Metal has really been firing in recent months, and Littler should have enough to hand him a third First Round exit. Following this, the draw really opens up for The Nuke who would face one of Peter Wright or Jermaine Wattimena in the Last 16. Given the longer format of this tournament, by the time we reach the Quarter-Final stage, and a best-of 31 legs format, Littler should have enough to out-stay his opposition. Not taking a genius to work out who his likely opponent is should he reach the final, the World No. 1 Luke Humphries. Cool Hand may have gotten the better of Littler in their last two finals - at the Players Championship Finals and the Premier League Final, however, I feel that the World Champion should be able to come out on top in a longer format.
LUKE LITTLER - TO WIN THE TOURNAMENT - 9/4 (PRICED UP) - 1.5PTS WIN
There have not been many times in recent years where Michael van Gerwen has endured as bad a run of form as he currently is, winning just five of his last fourteen matches, since claiming the European Tour title in Munich back in April. That explains why he is receiving quotes of 20/1 to claim a fourth Matchplay crown. The recent announcement that he has split from his wife Daphne saw MvG take a small break from the tour, returning just four weeks ago at the US Darts Masters, since winning two of his four matches. Whilst it's unlikely that he will be able to regather his form of old to get his name back on this trophy, it will take a brave person to predict van Gerwen suffering an early exit, especially at the site where he reach the final just twelve months ago.
Reigning Champion Luke Humphries could have some perceived value in the market, with 9/2 available on the World No. 1 retaining his crown. However, I feel that he has a dangerous route through the tournament, with potential clashes against tricky opponents such as Gian van Veen, Wessel Nijman and Gary Anderson (more on him later) enough to put me off backing Cool Hand to make it a second consecutive Matchplay title.
Outside of the 'big two' in the market, you have the challenge of The Iceman GERWYN PRICE, who has recaptured his form since the turn of the year. Price has been in imperious form in recent weeks, reaching the Semi-Final and Final of last month's Players Championship events, sandwiched by two wins in the Poland Darts Masters, and just last weekend on the European Tour in Kiel. Whilst the Matchplay title is something that has eluded the Welshman thus far, he looks set to provide a challenge for the two market principles.
A First Round tie against Daryl Gurney should be just what Price needs to get his tournament off and running, and then he should come into his own given the longer format, something which has aided him at the Grand Slam of Darts, claiming that title on three occasions. Should he navigate his way to the last four, it's likely that tournament favourite and World Champion Luke Littler will be awaiting him, someone who Price beat on six consecutive occasions between June 2024 and March 2025. Littler has won their last three meetings, but The Iceman will certainly have the confidence that he can stop The Nuke in his quest for a first Matchplay crown.
GERWYN PRICE - TO WIN THE TOURNAMENT - 17/2 (SPREADEX) - 1PT WIN
A whole host of players are priced between 16/1 and 33/1 in the outright market, with players such as Josh Rock, Chris Dobey and Stephen Bunting all falling into that category. Those players look to have a trouble passage to the latter stages of the tournament, with Josh Rock facing an opening round tie with Ross Smith, Chris Dobey potentially running into Gerwyn Price in Round Two, whilst Stephen Bunting is likely to face Gary Anderson, should The Bullet navigate his way past Ryan Joyce in the opening round.
This has led me to The Flying Scotsman GARY ANDERSON, when looking to find some value outside of the main market protagonists. Anderson sits just behind Luke Littler in the averages across the last twelve months, boasting a 98.66 average across his 121 matchups. This has seen him come out on top in 85 of these 121 matches, winning 57.15% of his legs in the process. Given this average of winning legs, this should aid his chances when getting into the latter stages of the tournament. Anderson should get through his First Round opponent in Luke Woodhouse, who has been out of sorts in recent weeks, with this potentially setting up a tie against Stephen Bunting in the Last 16, which will certainly test his title credentials. Should Anderson be able to roll back the years, he will be on a collision course with World No.1 Luke Humphries in the Semi-Final, and could easily get the better of him. The 22/1 available for him is definitely worth a small each-way play.
GARY ANDERSON - TO WIN THE TOURNAMENT - 22/1 (PRICED UP) - 0.5PTS E/W (2 PLACES)
Another who is an attractive each-way alternative is JONNY CLAYTON. The World No. 5 isn't amongst the power-scorers on the tour, however, is workmanlike, and has the ability to grind out results with his consistency and clinical finishing. The Ferret finished runner-up in 2023, losing out to Nathan Aspinall in the Final. Title sponsors Betfred are the only firm to be offering four places on their each-way terms, and this suddenly makes Clayton an interesting proposition. A run to the Semi-Finals would see us get a return, and with there being a distinct possibility that he doesn't face a seeded player until the Quarter-Finals, he is worth a poke at the price on offer.
I feel that Clayton also represents value in the market to win the second Quarter. He must get the better of Stephen Bunting and Gary Anderson, however, there is a chance that they run into trouble prior to a meeting with the Welshman in the Quarter-Finals. He comes into the tournament as the fifth highest ranked player, and isn't priced as such.
JONNY CLAYTON - TO WIN THE TOURNAMENT - 25/1 (BETFRED) - 0.25PTS E/W (4 PLACES)
JONNY CLAYTON - TO WIN QUARTER 2 - 5/1 (BET VICTOR) - 0.75PTS
Amongst players at much bigger prices is the Dutchman Wessel Nijman, who has the best average when it comes to legs won on the tour this season. Nijman has won 60.54% of the legs he has played, something that could stand him in good stead when it comes to an assault on this tournament. Given his lowly ranking, he will face trouble early in the tournament, hence the price on offer. However, I feel that he could be someone who outperforms his odds.
