Newcastle vs Arsenal - Preview, Best Bets & H2H Record
- JN Value Betting
- Feb 4
- 4 min read
BEST BETS:
ETHAN NWANERI - TO HAVE 1+ SHOT ON TARGET - 13/10 (UNIBET) - 1PT
ETHAN NWANERI - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 24/5 (UNIBET) - 0.5PTS
ETHAN NWANERI - TO SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA - 15/1 (UNIBET) - 0.5PTS
JOELINTON - TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS - 3/4 (UNIBET) - 2PTS
JOELINTON - TO COMMIT 3+ FOULS - 41/20 (UNIBET) - 1PT
Two clubs hoping to end their relevant silverware droughts go head-to-head on Wednesday evening in the second leg of their Carabao Cup Semi-Final. Newcastle take a two-goal lead back to St. James' Park, and will look to protect that to make their second final in three years in this competition. A near 70 year wait for a trophy continues, but the Magpies will be hoping to take one giant step towards ending that. Their opponents' wait for silverware hasn't quite stretched back to the 1950s. However, their supporters will still be eager to get a trophy in their cabinet, given the current crop of players at Mikel Arteta's disposal. He has won one major piece of silverware in his tenure as Arsenal manager - the 2019/20 FA Cup, in which the final was held behind closed doors due to the pandemic, increasing the wait for Arsenal fans to see their side lift a trophy.
Arsenal will head into this one as the underdogs for the tie, given the two-goal deficit that awaits them. Although, they will take hope from their demolition job of Manchester City on Sunday. Newcastle appeared to be a side who had eyes for this match when they suffered a 2-1 defeat at home to Fulham on Saturday - their second consecutive home defeat, which is the first time they have suffered this fate for a year. As with most second leg ties, the first goal will be key to determining how this one will pan out, and Arsenal will undoubtedly chuck everything at Newcastle in order to get that goal.
The absence of Bukayo Saka has highlighted the struggles that Arsenal have faced in front of goal in recent weeks, and they would have been keen to get a striker in during the transfer window. However, their efforts were fruitless. One positive to come out of this has been the emergence of youngster Ethan Nwaneri, who capped off the fine display against Manchester City with his seventh goal of the season. In the hope that this will have earned him a starting place for this one, I am keen to get the youngster onside in the Goalscorer and Shots on Target markets. Nwaneri has had a shot on target in four of his seven starts this season and has had twelve in just 650 minutes of first team football - an average of one every 54 minutes. Therefore, I am happy to take the 13/10 on offer for him to have one here, in a match where Arsenal look set to be on the front foot. As I mentioned earlier, Nwaneri has seven goals this season, meaning he is averaging a goal every 93 minutes played, and with 24/5 on offer for him to get on the scoresheet here, I feel that is very generous. He has also seen 11 of his 23 shots this season come from outside the area, with three of these finding the net, so I am happy to have a small play on him to score from outside the area at 15/1. Newcastle have had 32% of the shots they've faced this season come from outside the area, and I feel that Nwaneri could be the key to this should he start. We will also be safe in the knowledge that if the youngster doesn't earn himself a starting place, these selections will be void.
During the first leg, I enjoyed great success with all four of my selections, two of these I am keen to get stuck in on once again. Joelinton has been a key part of the Newcastle midfield since the arrival of Eddie Howe, who has successfully turned a questionable forward into a reliable central midfielder. The Brazilian is averaging 2.04 fouls committed per 90 this season, and given the way this game is set, I am happy to get involved on this continuing here. He has committed 2+ fouls in all of his last seven against Arsenal, and at least 3 fouls in six of those seven. Given the 3/4 (2+) and the 41/20 (3+) on offer here, I am keen to get stuck in. I have been slightly reserved with the stakes on this selection due to Joelinton's risk of suspension should he be carded, a yellow card would rule the midfielder out of the final should Newcastle progress, so I will approach with caution. Should we reach a stage of the tie where Arsenal look set to progress, there is an argument to back Joelinton in-play to pick up a card, with the Brazilian having a tendency to lose his discipline in these scenarios.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
07/01/2025 - Arsenal 0-2 NEWCASTLE (EFL Cup)
02/11/2024 - NEWCASTLE 1-0 Arsenal (Premier League)
24/02/2024 - ARSENAL 4-1 Newcastle (Premier League)
04/11/2023 - NEWCASTLE 1-0 Arsenal (Premier League)
07/05/2023 - Newcastle 0-2 ARSENAL (Premier League)
