League One Play-Off Final - Preview, Best Bets & H2H Record
- JN Value Betting
- May 24
- 2 min read
BEST BETS:
AFC WIMBLEDON - TO COMMIT 13+ FOULS - 10/11 (SKY BET) - 2PTS
AFC WIMBLEDON - TO COMMIT 16+ FOULS - 7/2 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS
28+ MATCH FOULS COMMITTED - 3/1 (SKY BET) - 1PT
30+ MATCH FOULS COMMITTED - 6/1 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS
28+ MATCH FOULS COMMITTED - 11/1 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS
The final game of the domestic season in the Football League takes place at Wembley on Monday afternoon where AFC Wimbledon look to regain their place in the third tier following their relegation three seasons ago. They face a Walsall side who were denied automatic promotion in the dying embers of the season, despite having held a twelve-point lead at the top of the league in January. However, nineteen points from their final nineteen league matches saw the Saddlers fall outside of the automatic promotion places in the final minutes of the regular season.
Much like every play-off final, I feel this could be a cagey affair, with both sides doing their utmost to not lose the match. This always leads me to analysing the fouls and cards markets with tensions undoubtedly running high. Wimbledon have committed an average on 13.52 fouls per game this season, and have committed 13+ fouls in 60% of their matches. I was surprised to see us able to get 10/11 on them to hit that average once again. Nine of the last twelve sides to have contested the League Two Play-Off Final have committed at least thirteen fouls, and given the way Wimbledon have been committing fouls this season, I see them being no different. There is 7/2 available on The Dons to commit 16+ fouls, implying a 22% probability, they have committed 16+ fouls in 29% of their matches this campaign, so I am happy to have a small play given the value on offer.
I have also looked into the total match fouls markets as I feel there is some value to be had here. Four of the last six Play-Off Finals in the fourth tier have seen at least 32 fouls committed, and we are able to get 11/1 on that selection in this one. The line starts at 28+ fouls and I am happy to ladder this with 30+ and 32+ to give us selections at 3/1, 6/1 and 11/1. There were 28 fouls committed when these two sides met in the League Two earlier this season.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
29/03/2025 - Walsall 1-1 AFC Wimbledon (League Two)
23/11/2024 - AFC Wimbledon 0-1 WALSALL (League Two)
27/04/2024 - AFC WIMBLEDON 5-1 Walsall (League Two)
23/09/2023 - Walsall 1-3 AFC WIMBLEDON (League Two)
28/03/2023 - AFC WIMBLEDON 2-0 Walsall (League Two)
