Inter Milan vs Barcelona - Preview, Best Bets & H2H Record
- JN Value Betting
- May 5
- 3 min read
Updated: May 6
BEST BETS:
DENZEL DUMFRIES - TO SCORE OR ASSIST - 5/2 (WILLIAM HILL) - 0.5PTS
YANN AUREL BISSECK - TO ASSIST A GOAL - 25/1 (BET365) - 0.25PTS
LAMINE YAMAL - TO HAVE 2+ SHOTS FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA - 17/10 (BETFAIR) - 1PT
LAMINE YAMAL - TO HAVE 3+ SHOTS FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA - 13/2 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS
Last week's first leg between Barcelona and Inter Milan was one of the games of the season, with Barcelona throwing the kitchen sink at Inter, whilst the Italians were profiting from the ludicrously high line that is deployed by Hansi Flick. Following a frantic 90 minutes, the tie still hangs in the balance going into the second leg at San Siro. Inter attempted to restrict the attacking flair of Barcelona as much as they could. However, they surrendered the lead in the tie twice. Despite a draw being a positive result for them, they did suffer with an injury to star man Lautaro Martinez, and he's a major doubt for this second leg.
As mentioned above, Barcelona did not deviate from their customary high defensive line that they play under Hansi Flick, and there were a number of occasions where Inter were able to exploit this. It's hard to see that the Spaniards will change their system for the second leg, and I am looking to take advantage of it here. Wing back Denzel Dumfries grabbed himself two goals in Spain, and found himself in an advanced role plenty of times. The Dutchman has scored or assisted 13 goals in 2,835 minutes this season, and I am keen to get him onside here with the opportunities sure to present themselves again. In addition to his goalscoring exploits last week, he did assist a goal that was disallowed by VAR for a very tight offside call.
Another player who enjoyed the freedom of the Barcelona defensive third was centre back Yann Bisseck. The German has been deputising for Benjamin Pavard in the right of Inter's back three, and has a licence to join their attacks. He found himself in good attacking positions numerous times in the first leg, and he caught my eye as someone who could be involved in a goal for the Italians at any stage. He played the ball across the box for the Inter attackers on a few occasions last week, and was unlucky not to register an assist. Although he only has two assists to his name this season, I was surprised to see 25/1 available on him to get an assist here, especially on the evidence of the first leg.
17 year old Lamine Yamal catapulted himself to the top of the Ballon D'Or betting following his performance in the first leg. The youngster dragged Barcelona back into the tie following their two-goal deficit, and I am sure he will be heavily involved again here. I am keen to call upon a winning selection from the first leg again, with Yamal to have at least two shots from outside the area. Yamal is averaging a shot from outside the area every 44 minutes this season - with this shortening to 39 minutes in the Champions League. He has seen 76 of his 163 shots this season come from beyond the penalty area - including when registering two in the first leg. Comparing his price with Raphinha, it looks massive. Raphinha is priced at 5/6 for 2+ shots from outside the area, with him averaging a shot every 52 minutes from that range. In comparison to Yamal, who is priced at 17/10, this looks incorrect and I am happy to take advantage once again.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
30/04/2025 - Barcelona 3-3 Inter Milan (UEFA Champions League)
12/10/2022 - Barcelona 3-3 Inter Milan (UEFA Champions League)
04/10/2022 - INTER MILAN 1-0 Barcelona (UEFA Champions League)
10/12/2019 - Inter Milan 1-2 BARCELONA (UEFA Champions League)
02/10/2019 - BARCELONA 2-1 Inter Milan (UEFA Champions League)
