FA Cup Value Bets - 30/03/25
- JN Value Betting
- Mar 27
- 3 min read
BEST BETS:
PRESTON NORTH END VS ASTON VILLA:
MARCO ASENSIO - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 11/5 (PADDY POWER) - 1PT
AFC BOURNEMOUTH VS MANCHESTER CITY:
AFC BOURNEMOUTH - TO COMMIT 13+ FOULS - 5/4 (SKY BET) - 2PTS
AFC BOURNEMOUTH - TO COMMIT 15+ FOULS - 11/4 (PADDY POWER) - 1PT
AFC BOURNEMOUTH - TO COMMIT 16+ FOULS - 9/2 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS
Aston Villa are the only side remaining in the competition to be chasing silverware on two fronts, with Unai Emery's side also taking their place in the Champions League Quarter-Finals. Whilst this competition represents a more realistic opportunity to end their 43-year wait for a major trophy, their players will have half an eye on their European tie with Paris St Germain just ten days on from this one. Preston have their own uniqueness about them as well, with them being the only side outside the Premier League to be left in the competition, with their strong home form being to their progress to date. Last season's runners-up Manchester City will fancy their chances of making a third consecutive final, but will have to overcome a tricky tie away at Bournemouth to make a seventh straight FA Cup Semi-Final.
PRESTON NORTH END VS ASTON VILLA
Preston have only tasted defeat three times at Deepdale this season, with their last defeat coming back in November, sixteen games ago. They will have to draw on that record in order to get the better of a buoyant Aston Villa side, who have tasted defeat just once in their last nine games. The hosts will be without the services of at least four first team regulars, and that will give Villa the chance to make a first semi-final in this competition since 2015, when they lost the final 4-0 to Arsenal. They have been handed the easiest of the possible opponents in this round, and will have their sights set on the Capital where they'll hope to end their trophy drought.
Unai Emery was able to strengthen his squad in January to ensure that his side can cope with the volume of matches they're facing in the coming months, should they continue to progress through their competitions. Marco Asensio came in on loan from PSG, and has hit the ground running, scoring 7 goals in the 382 minutes that he has played for the Villains since arriving in January. This has him averaging a goal every 55 minutes, and I was surprised to see the 11/5 available for him to get on the scoresheet once again here. He netted twice against Championship opposition in Cardiff in the last round, and should he start here, it's hard to see his form stopping.
AFC BOURNEMOUTH VS MANCHESTER CITY
Bournemouth have never won a major trophy, and their run in this competition is presenting them with their best opportunity so far. They'll have to overcome tournament favourites Manchester City if they are to make their first appearance at the current Wembley. The visitors are no strangers to the 'Arch', having made an appearance there in six consecutive seasons in the FA Cup. Pep Guardiola's men have been out of sorts this season, including when they lost the league fixture at the Vitality between the sides 2-1.
Andoni Iraola's men have been a joy to watch this season, with him deploying his pressing style on his squad, and it causing havoc for Premier League opposition. That has seen the Cherries threaten the European spaces, and will hope to regain their form to give the club a historic taste of European football, whether that be by way of the Premier League or this competition. One consequence of Iraola's pressing style is the number of fouls that his side commits, and I was surprised to see the prices on offer here in the fouls markets. The hosts are 5/4 to commit 13+ fouls, with them having done this in fourteen of their last fifteen matches. They are committing a average of 13.82 fouls per game this season, with that rising to 14.93 in those aforementioned fifteen matches. I am keen to take advantage of the prices on offer, with 11/4 being available for 15+ fouls, and 9/2 available for 16+.
