FA Cup Value Bets - 02/03/25
- JN Value Betting
- Mar 1
- 4 min read
Updated: Mar 2
BEST BETS:
NEWCASTLE UNITED VS BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION:
BRIGHTON - TO SCORE 2+ GOALS - 6/5 (BET365) - 1PT
KAURO MITOMA - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 10/3 (BET365) - 0.5PTS
MANCHESTER UNITED VS FULHAM:
RODRIGO MUNIZ - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 13/5 (UNIBET) - 1PT
ANDREAS PEREIRA - TO BE CARDED - 14/5 (UNIBET) - 1PT
MANUEL UGARTE - TO MAKE 3+ TACKLES - 5/6 (BET365) - 1.5PTS
MANUEL UGARTE - TO MAKE 4+ TACKLES - 9/4 (BET365) - 0.5PTS
Despite their recent struggles, Man United are bidding to make a third straight FA Cup Final. They'll need to overcome a tricky Fulham side in order to make it to the last eight - something which they did on the way to the final in 2023. Elsewhere, Newcastle are looking to make a second domestic final of the season, with their ticket booked for the Carabao Cup Final in two weekends. They welcome an in form Brighton to St James' Park, who will fancy their chances of booking their spot in the Quarter-Finals for the second time in three seasons.
NEWCASTLE UNITED VS BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION
The absence of Alexander Isak was felt by Newcastle in midweek when they lost 2-0 at champions-elect Liverpool. That was a dress rehearsal for the Carabao Cup Final, and the Magpies will be hoping their talisman is back in time for the Wembley showpiece. It's likely that they'll have to do without him once more here, and that will give Brighton all the confidence that they can put a stop to Newcastle's bid for another domestic cup run.
The Seagulls come into this one on the back of four straight wins, atoning for their 7-0 defeat at the hands of Nottingham Forest at the beginning of last month. They'll be looking to repeat their victory in the league meeting between the two sides earlier in the campaign, and given their recent form, I see no reason why they can't progress in this one. They've found their scoring boots in recent weeks, scoring twelve goals in their last four games, and they have scored at least twice in seven of their last nine. Newcastle's solid defensive record has wavered at home in recent weeks, with them conceding at least two goals in three of their last four at St James' Park - whilst this record is six from their last eight both home and away. The 6/5 on offer for Brighton to score twice seems generous given the respective sides' form.
Should Brighton find the net, the most likely prospect is Kauro Mitoma. The Japanese winger has scored five goals in his last eight appearances, and the 10/3 on offer for him to get on the scoresheet is worth a small play.
MANCHESTER UNITED VS FULHAM
Just two seasons ago, Fulham held a one-goal lead going into the final twenty minutes of an FA Cup Quarter-Final at Old Trafford. However, following a minute of madness which saw manager Marco Silva, Aleksandar Mitrovic and Willian all sent off, and the Cottagers collapsed to lose 3-1. Should they manage to keep their cool in this one, they'll be confident of progressing against a Man United side who have lost five of their last nine matches at home. That being said, the holders did manage to see out a 3-2 win over Ipswich on Wednesday evening, despite playing with ten men for 50 minutes.
Fulham have only lost one of their last ten on the road, and will be confident of inflicting yet more pain on Ruben Amorim's side. Should he get the nod to start in this one, I feel that Rodrigo Muniz could be key to Fulham's chances of progressing. The Brazilian has three FA Cup goals to his name this season, and has scored 18 goals in this 2,998 minutes across the last two seasons. He comes into this one in a rich vein of form, with four goals in his last three starts. Four of his five Premier League goals this season have come against the league's 'elite' in Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester City & Newcastle. I feel that the 13/5 on offer for him to find the net here is too large.
Emile Smith Rowe missed his side's win at Molineux on Tuesday evening, having been substituted due to injury against Crystal Palace last weekend, should he miss out again here, it's likely that Andreas Pereira will fill the void left by him. The Ex-Man United man has been carded in his last four starts against his former club, and if he starts in this one, I back him to continue that run. Pereira has clocked up 7 cards in just 1,579 minutes this season, and in a fixture that could follow suit to the aforementioned Quarter-Final clash, Pereira rates as a prime candidate for a card.
In the previous round, I enjoyed success in backing Manuel Ugarte in the tackles markets, the Uruguayan seemed to be priced incorrectly for the visit of Leicester, and duly obliged by making three tackles. I am keen to take advantage of the inflated prices on him, once again. Ugarte has made at least three tackles in 13 of his 16 starts under Amorim - including when making five tackles in the league meeting against Fulham in January. He's averaging 3.95 tackles made per 90 this season, and with these selections being best priced 3/10 (3+) and 8/11 (4+) elsewhere, I am looking to get stuck in.
