FA Cup Value Bets - 01/03/25

JN Value Betting
Feb 28
6 min read

BEST BETS:

PRESTON NORTH END VS BURNLEY:

ALISTAIR MCCANN - TO BE CARDED - 13/5 (LIVESCORE BET) - 1PT

HANNIBAL MEJBRI - TO BE CARDED - 17/5 (LIVESCORE BET) - 1PT

ALISTAIR MCCANN & HANNIBAL MEJBRI - TO BE CARDED - 14/1 (LIVESCORE BET) - 0.5PTS

0-0 - CORRECT SCORE - 6/1 (BETFRED) - 0.25PTS

ZIAN FLEMMING - TO HAVE 2+ SHOTS - 4/5 (BET365) - 2PTS

ZIAN FLEMMING - TO HAVE 3+ SHOTS - 12/5 (BET365) - 1PT

ZIAN FLEMMING - TO HAVE 4+ SHOTS - 6/1 (BET365) - 0.5PTS

ZIAN FLEMMING - TO HAVE 5+ SHOTS - 14/1 (BET365) - 0.25PTS

AFC BOURNEMOUTH VS WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS:

MATHEUS CUNHA - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 31/10 (UNIBET) - 1PT

MARSHALL MUNETSI - TO HAVE 2+ SHOTS - 11/10 (BETWAY) - 1PT

MANCHESTER CITY VS PLYMOUTH ARGYLE:

MATTHEW SORINOLA - TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS - 9/4 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS

MATTHEW SORINOLA - TO COMMIT 3+ FOULS - 7/1 (BETFAIR) - 0.25PTS

NICO O'REILLY - TO MAKE 2+ TACKLES - 10/11 (BET365) - 2PTS

NICO O'REILLY - TO MAKE 3+ TACKLES - 11/4 (BET365) - 1PT

NICO O'REILLY - TO MAKE 4+ TACKLES - 13/2 (BET365) - 0.5PTS

Just five sides from outside the Premier League remain in the FA Cup as we reach the Fifth Round stage, and by the time Saturday is over, that could be just one. That being said, the tournament has been blown wide open with the exits of Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham all coming over the previous two rounds. Plymouth Argyle's prize for conquering Arne Slot's Liverpool in Round Four is a trip to the Etihad to face Manchester City. Should the Devonshire side progress, it would go down as the greatest double scalp in the competition's history. Burnley travel across Lancashire to face Preston for the second time in as many weeks, meaning that we are guaranteed to have at least one Championship participant in the Quarter-Finals.

PRESTON NORTH END VS BURNLEY

Scott Parker's Burnley are yet to reach double figures for goals conceded in the Championship this season, and yet still find themselves outside the automatic promotion places. Despite not being guaranteed promotion at the end of the season, they look set to smash all records when it comes to conceding goals. Preston comfortably in mid-table, nine points off the Championship play-off places, and twelve points clear of the relegation zone. This could point to them having more motivation to progress in this one, given Burnley's promotion bid being their main priority.

These two sides met just two weeks ago, and despite their being no goals, it was not short of drama. The match was marred by the allegations that Preston's Milutin Osmajic racially abused Burnley midfielder Hannibal Mejbri. That looks set to make this one a fiery affair, with this fixture following the other so quickly. Referee John Brooks is in charge of this one, and it looks as if he will have his work cut out, especially if Osmajic and Mejbri both start. Cup ties can see sides take their foot off the gas, and not play with the same intensity, which often leads to a lack of cards. However, Brooks has given an average of 5 cards across his eight domestic cup ties in the last two seasons. I was drawn to the price of Alistair McCann to find his way into Brooks' notebook - the Preston midfielder has picked up 20 cards in the last two seasons, and has been carded in all three of his appearances against the Clarets. I'm also keen to get the aforementioned Hannibal Mejbri onside to pick up a card, he should be priced around 21/10 given his record of 22 cards in 4,122 minutes, so I am happy to take the 17/5 on offer. Given the potential for this one to get out of hand, I'll have a small play on the 14/1 for both to pick up a card.

As mentioned previously, Burnley have a knack of making it hard for their opposition to score, and this has led to them not scoring as many as their supporters would have hoped. The Clarets have seen eleven 0-0 draws this season - including in both league meetings with Preston. The hosts have seen seven goalless draws this season, including one in the last round against Wycombe, before prevailing on penalties. I was surprised to see the 6/1 on offer for this one to suffer the same fate. Given the lack of goals between the sides, this doesn't look set to be a goal fest. However, another 0-0 is probably unlikely, so I'll keep the stakes low.

Scott Parker has utilised his squad depth in previous rounds, and looks set to do so here, which likely means that striker Zian Flemming will be rested in place of Ashley Barnes. However, his prices in the shots market are incorrect, and I will back them on the off chance that he starts. Flemming has recorded 2+ shots in 15 of his 19 starts this season, including in the meeting between the sides 14 days ago. His price of 4/5 doesn't make sense, and that is proven when we see it best priced 2/5 elsewhere. I'm happy to ladder these up to 5+ shots, with the Dutchman having recorded 5+ shots in 4/19 starts, with the 14/1 on offer looking too generous.

AFC BOURNEMOUTH VS WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS

Much like Preston and Burnley's tie, this is another fixture that we were treated to recently. Wolves travelled to Bournemouth last weekend, running out 1-0 winners against a ten-man Cherries. Both of these sides have bigger priorities than an FA Cup run, but as mentioned previously, this competition provides a great opportunity for a side outside the traditional 'Big Six' to get their hands on some silverware this season. Despite sitting just five points ahead of the Premier League drop zone, Vitor Pereira hasn't rotated his side as much as other managers in this competition, and that looks set to continue here, and it could provide Wolves with a good chance of recording their second victory at the Vitality in just seven days.

The goalscorer for Wolves in last weekend's victory was talisman Matheus Cunha, who has scored in seven of his last ten starts. That goal meant that the Brazilian has scored on both of his visits to the Vitality Stadium, and I am keen to take the price on offer for him to continue that goalscoring run here. With 31/10 available, and this being as short as 6/4 elsewhere, it seems far too inflated.

January signing Marshall Munetsi has enjoyed a run in the side in recent weeks since his move from Stade Reims, and it has seen the Zimbabwean occupy a more advance role that what he did at the French side. This has seen him take at least two shots in all four of his appearances for Wolves, and with 11/10 on offer for that continue here, I am keen to get stuck in. Munetsi has been leading the line for his side in the absence of Jorgen Strand Larsen, and even if the Norwegian is reintroduced to the side for this one, Munetsi should still be deployed in attacking midfield, making this price far too large.

MANCHESTER CITY VS PLYMOUTH ARGYLE

It was a return to winning ways for Manchester City on Wednesday evening, with them securing a 1-0 win against Spurs at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. They'll be looking to continue that here, in a competition where they have reached the final in the last two seasons. This is the only remaining chance of silverware for Pep Guardiola and his side this season, so it will be likely that they look to put Plymouth to the sword here. Argyle are embroiled in a relegation battle in the Championship, and their FA Cup run has provided a welcome distraction from the struggles of their league season. Despite knocking out Premier League champions-elect Liverpool in the last round, this looks to be one step too far for Miron Muslic's side.

Jack Grealish was reintroduced in injury time on Wednesday evening, and looks set to be involved from the start here. Grealish is likely to be up against Matthew Sorinola, who is committing an average of 1.34 fouls per 90 this season, and will have his work cut out on Saturday evening. The Manchester City winger is averaging 3.23 fouls won per 90 this season, and the 9/4 on offer for Sorinola to commit 2+ fouls is certainly worth a punt. In the last round in the victory over Liverpool, he committed three fouls.

Despite this looking to be a priority for Manchester City, it's still highly likely that Guardiola will rotate his crop, given the embarrassment of riches at his disposal. In both previous rounds so far this season, Nico O'Reilly has started for City, and it's likely that will continue here. The youngster is averaging 4.13 tackles per 90 this season, and has made at least three tackles in all four of his appearances for the Citizens - this includes making four tackles in both his FA Cup appearances this season. The prices on offer for O'Reilly to make 2, 3 and 4 tackles are massive in comparison to other bookmakers, and I am keen to take full advantage.