Dublin Racing Festival (Day 1) Preview - 01/02/25
- JN Value Betting
- Jan 31
- 6 min read
BEST BETS:
SUPERSUNDAE - 13:15 LEOPARDSTOWN - 13/2 (WILLIAM HILL) - 0.5PTS E/W (3 PLACES)
SAINT LUCIE - TRIUMPH HURDLE (CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL) - 10/1 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS WIN
WHATSAVAILABLE - 14:25 LEOPARDSTOWN - 28/1 (BET365) - 0.5PTS E/W (5 PLACES)
WEST IS AWAKE - 14:25 LEOPARDSTOWN - 100/1 (PADDY POWER) - 0.5PTS E/W (6 PLACES)
GRANGECLARE WEST - 15:30 LEOPARDSTOWN - 100/1 (BET365) - 0.5PTS E/W (3 PLACES)
AN PEANN DEARG - 16:05 LEOPARDSTOWN - 13/2 (WILLIAM HILL) - 0.5PTS E/W (4 PLACES)
The start of February marks the start of the 'Spring' Festivals for the National Hunt season, where some of the main Cheltenham Festival questions are set to be answered. As is customary for recent years, the Willie Mullins battalion look set to dominate, with the Closutton maestro claiming all Grade 1 races on the card last year.
The card kicks off with the Grade 1 Novices' Hurdle over 2m 6f, where Willie Mullins has won eight of the last twelve renewals and trains the top four in the market here, headed by Final Demand who comes here off the back of a comprehensive maiden hurdle success at Limerick. The form of that has worked out well, with the second and third both winning since. He looks set to go off a short price, and whilst there is every chance he could be the class act in the field, I am happy to look elsewhere for some value. I feel this comes in the form of SUPERSUNDAE, he brings the most substantial form line into the race following his runners-up effort in the Lawlor's of Naas behind The Yellow Clay four weeks ago. In recent years this has been won by more of a dour stayer, with Mullins landing the prize with Gaillard Du Mesnil, Minella Cocooner and Dancing City. I feel that Supersundae may fit the bill here, and am happy to take the chance that he at least runs on into a place to scoop up some place money.
SUPERSUNDAE - 13:15 LEOPARDSTOWN - 13/2 (WILLIAM HILL) - 0.5PTS E/W (3 PLACES)
It's the turn of the juveniles up next, where another Willie Mullins 'hotpot' tops the market by way of Saint Lucie, this French recruit bolted up on her Irish debut at Punchestown on New Year's Eve. This was the same path that Vauban took on his way to success in this race, and then the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He was beaten in the Punchestown maiden, but made amends by capping off his juvenile campaign with three Grade 1 victories. Saint Lucie is the pick of the Mullins quartet in this one, despite having Lady Vega Allen running who finished second by a short head over course and distance at Boxing Day in the Grade 2 Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle. This stresses the potential that Mullins must have in the favourite here, and whilst I feel she maybe a price a little short in this, she is a larger price than her aforementioned stablemate in the betting for the Triumph Hurdle, therefore, I am happy to take a small punt on the 10/1 on offer for that, in the hope that this will shorten following this race. Hello Neighbour who won the Grade 2 here on Boxing Day, defeating Lady Vega Allen looks set to challenge for favouritism, bringing the most substance when it comes to form. However, it remains to be seen how good he may be, and given Willie Mullins recent record in the race (winning the last three runnings), it looks likely that he'll have a major say.
SAINT LUCIE - TRIUMPH HURDLE (CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL) - 10/1 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS WIN
Following the two Grade 1 races that open the card, attention turns to a handicap hurdle over 3 miles. There looks to be a handicap blot in this one with Meetingofthewaters being rated 36lbs lower over hurdles than fences, and he looks set to take full advantage of that. Given the sheer amount in hand he has, he looks set to go off at a very short price for a 26 runner handicap, so I am keen to look for value elsewhere here and have done so by way of WHATSAVAILABLE and WEST IS AWAKE both horses have come here from the Pertemps Network Qualifier that was held here over Christmas, a race that has provided four of the last ten winners of this race - including the last two. Whatsavailable finished runner-up in the aforementioned qualifier running on well and is only up 4lbs here, with an extra half a furlong to contend with. I am surprised to see the 28/1 that is on offer here. Due to him having qualified for the Pertemps Network Final at the Cheltenham Festival, there is always a chance that they will be keen to keep his handicap mark under wraps, which would possibly lead to a more 'reserved' performance here. However, I am happy to take a small punt at the price. The latter of the pair, finished runner-up last season off just 1lb lower and has been sent over fences for the majority of his starts this season. He had a blowout over hurdles last time out, and I feel that this could have aided him for this one, and am happy to have a small play with the 100/1 on offer. He finished tenth in the Pertemps Qualifier and he has been lowered 2lbs for that effort.
WHATSAVAILABLE - 14:25 LEOPARDSTOWN - 28/1 (BET365) - 0.5PTS E/W (5 PLACES)
WEST IS AWAKE - 14:25 LEOPARDSTOWN - 100/1 (PADDY POWER) - 0.5PTS E/W (6 PLACES)
It's a return to Grade 1 action following the handicap hurdle, by way of the Irish Arkle. Willie Mullins once again looks to have a stranglehold on this, with Majborough and Ile Atlantique heading the market. Mullins has won the last four runnings of this, and it would take a brave person to bet against him doing so for a fifth year in a row. Majborough looks set to go off favourite here following his smooth success on chasing debut at Fairyhouse. The more solid form line comes from Ile Atlantique who seems to have clicked over fences, and recorded a Grade 2 success at Naas last time out. Given the short price of both the Mullins runners, and with it being hard to make a case outside of those two, I am happy to swerve this one from a betting perspective.
Another Grade 1 up next, and another Willie Mullins domination at the top of the market where two-time Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Galopin Des Champs looks to make it three wins in the Irish Gold Cup here, on his way to a third success at Prestbury Park and he is a short price to do so. He returns to his favourite course following on from his dominant success at Christmas and looks set to do the same here against familiar rivals. One of those rivals is stablemate Fact To File who claimed victory in the John Durkan on his seasonal reappearance. However, he was no match for Galopin Des Champs over three miles at Christmas, despite running creditably. It's hard to see past Willie Mullins' Gold Cup hero once again, so I have taken a small play on his stablemate GRANGECLARE WEST, he recorded two novice successes over fences last season, including a comfortable six length success over course and distance. However, he has found his two runs in open company this season far tougher, both in the John Durkan and Savills Chase. He'll return to soft ground here (the ground in which he recorded his two novices successes), and I feel that he can outrun his odds of 100/1. Galopin Des Champs and Fact To File look set to fill the first two positions, with the third place up for grabs, and I believe the Grangeclare West should be slightly shorter than the price on offer.
GRANGECLARE WEST - 15:30 LEOPARDSTOWN - 100/1 (BET365) - 0.5PTS E/W (3 PLACES)
A Listed contest concludes the races over obstacles on day one, with the Ryanair Handicap Chase. Midnight It Is for Gavin Cromwell and Conor Stone-Walsh heads the market following his third place effort in a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse just three weeks ago - a race in which Cromwell had the first three home. He is up just 1lb for that effort and with Stone-Walsh taking off a vital 5lbs, he looks the one to beat here. I have been drawn to An Peann Dearg for Paul Nolan who is up 6lbs following a course and distance success on Boxing Day. The form of that race has worked out well with third placed The King Of Prs going on to win the aforementioned Fairyhouse race. Nolan has trained the winner of this race in both 2016 and 2019, so knows exactly what it takes to win the contest, and I feel his could record his third success in nine runnings here.
AN PEANN DEARG - 16:05 LEOPARDSTOWN - 13/2 (WILLIAM HILL) - 0.5PTS E/W (4 PLACES)
The day one card is rounded off with a Grade 2 National Hunt Flat race where the winner has gone onto finish in the first two of the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival in five of the last six years. It remains to be seen if there are any contenders for that race in here, with Gordon Elliott having the market leader He Can't Dance who won on debut at Navan and looks set to go well here. The Mullins challenge is headed by Green Splendour who recorded a course and distance success on Boxing Day. Given the limited form on offer, I am happy to sit back and watch this one, with no real bet standing out.
